Prediction comparison

Semifinal 1 Junior Women

08.05.2026 Porto Santa Margherita ITA

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Junior Cup Caorle

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 08.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 53/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 13 früheren Rennen und 188 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 27.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 08.05.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 46.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 13 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.1

Mean swim error18.5 s

Mean bike-speed error1.32 km/h

Correct bike groups5/22

No history6

Within the 80% range21.4 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 5	Rosalie Gallant FRA	+3 s +6 s	G1 / G1 correct	6:42 7:06	22:09	Show details Prediction details: Rosalie Gallant Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +3 s Time: 4:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: -3.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 1 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 91 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 7.1 s Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.03 km/h Running and total Run: 6:42 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:06 (3:44 / km) Error: −0:24 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 22:09 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 4:00 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 15:24 (37.8 km/h) Run: 6:42 (3:32 / km) Total: 22:09
2 / 10	Petra Bán HUN	+23 s +2 s	G2 / G2 correct	6:59 7:05	23:30	Show details Prediction details: Petra Bán Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 4:20 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 20.5 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -1.37 %, Sicherheit 78 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 31 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.2 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.57 km/h Running and total Run: 6:59 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 79 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:05 (3:44 / km) Error: −0:06 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 23:30 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:20 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (36.2 km/h) Run: 6:59 (3:40 / km) Total: 23:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 15.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 1	Beate Jansone LAT	+20 s +7 s	G2 / G1	7:12 6:58	23:43	Show details Prediction details: Beate Jansone Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–9 Top-10 probability: 95 % Result: 1 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 4:17 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 12.6 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 1.07 %, Sicherheit 97 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 35 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.6 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.90 km/h Running and total Run: 7:12 (3:47 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 83 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:58 (3:40 / km) Error: +0:14 / +0:07 / km Overall prediction: 23:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:17 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (36.2 km/h) Run: 7:12 (3:47 / km) Total: 23:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 12.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 11	Edita Pozlerova CZE	+32 s +19 s	G3 / G3 correct	6:49 7:03	23:44	Show details Prediction details: Edita Pozlerova Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–7 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 11 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: 4:29 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 13.1 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 85 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 5 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h Running and total Run: 6:49 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 69 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:03 (3:43 / km) Error: −0:14 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 23:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:29 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:19 (35.7 km/h) Run: 6:49 (3:35 / km) Total: 23:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
5 / 7	Evamaria Albert EST	+31 s +13 s	G3 / G2	6:58 6:53	23:53	Show details Prediction details: Evamaria Albert Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–9 Top-10 probability: 98 % Result: 7 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 4:28 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 18.2 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 88 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.37 km/h Running and total Run: 6:58 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 88 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:53 (3:37 / km) Error: +0:05 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 23:53 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:28 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:19 (35.7 km/h) Run: 6:58 (3:40 / km) Total: 23:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 24.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 9	Giorgia Abbatantuono ITA	+29 s +0 s	G3 / G2	7:02 7:04	23:57	Show details Prediction details: Giorgia Abbatantuono Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 4–10 Top-10 probability: 90 % Result: 9 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 4:26 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 29.1 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 56 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.06 km/h Running and total Run: 7:02 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 52 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:04 (3:43 / km) Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 23:57 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:19 (35.7 km/h) Run: 7:02 (3:42 / km) Total: 23:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 22.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 20	Alíz Júlia Geri HUN	+35 s +15 s	G3 / G4	7:02 7:30	23:57	Show details Prediction details: Alíz Júlia Geri Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 4–12 Top-10 probability: 74 % Result: 20 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 4:32 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 20.4 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 2.8 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 35.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.56 km/h Running and total Run: 7:02 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:30 (3:57 / km) Error: −0:28 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 23:57 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:32 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:19 (35.7 km/h) Run: 7:02 (3:42 / km) Total: 23:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 28.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 14	Tunde Georgiana Crisan ROU	+31 s +15 s	G3 / G3 correct	7:09 7:11	24:04	Show details Prediction details: Tunde Georgiana Crisan Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 5–18 Top-10 probability: 54 % Result: 14 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +31 s Time: 4:28 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: 15.5 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.55 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.83 km/h Running and total Run: 7:09 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:44 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:11 (3:47 / km) Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 24:04 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:28 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:19 (35.7 km/h) Run: 7:09 (3:46 / km) Total: 24:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 23.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 18	Bernadett Nyíri HUN	+40 s +23 s	G4 / G3	6:53 7:27	24:07	Show details Prediction details: Bernadett Nyíri Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 3–16 Top-10 probability: 56 % Result: 18 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 4:37 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 17.2 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.49 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 13.4 s Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.87 km/h Running and total Run: 6:53 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:27 (3:55 / km) Error: −0:34 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 24:07 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:37 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:34 (35.1 km/h) Run: 6:53 (3:37 / km) Total: 24:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 33.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 16	Nicole Fasano ITA	+38 s +14 s	G4 / G3	6:55 7:23	24:09	Show details Prediction details: Nicole Fasano Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 5–11 Top-10 probability: 80 % Result: 16 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 4:35 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 24.2 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 71 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.8 s Gap behind: 0.1 s Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.40 km/h Running and total Run: 6:55 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 69 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:23 (3:53 / km) Error: −0:28 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 24:09 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:35 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:34 (35.1 km/h) Run: 6:55 (3:38 / km) Total: 24:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 31.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 2	Léa Reviglio FRA	+35 s +22 s	G3 / G1	7:36 7:03	24:31	Show details Prediction details: Léa Reviglio Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 10–15 Top-10 probability: 11 % Result: 2 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 4:32 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 12.6 s H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.87 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 38.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.23 km/h Running and total Run: 7:36 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 4:03 / km Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.19 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:03 (3:43 / km) Error: +0:33 / +0:17 / km Overall prediction: 24:31 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 4:32 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:19 (35.7 km/h) Run: 7:36 (4:00 / km) Total: 24:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 27.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 15	Alice Ventre ITA	+25 s +27 s	G2 / G3	8:04 7:09	24:35	Show details Prediction details: Alice Ventre Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 12–17 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 15 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 4:22 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: -2.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 2.2 s Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h Running and total Run: 8:04 (4:15 / km) Historical basis: 4:16 / km Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:09 (3:46 / km) Error: +0:55 / +0:29 / km Overall prediction: 24:35 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:22 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (36.2 km/h) Run: 8:04 (4:15 / km) Total: 24:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 18.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 4	Chiara Guarisco ITA	+39 s +2 s	G4 / G1	7:25 7:07	24:39	Show details Prediction details: Chiara Guarisco Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 7–17 Top-10 probability: 31 % Result: 4 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +39 s Time: 4:36 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 37.0 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 93 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 37.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.46 km/h Running and total Run: 7:25 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 84 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:07 (3:45 / km) Error: +0:18 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 24:39 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:36 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:34 (35.1 km/h) Run: 7:25 (3:54 / km) Total: 24:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 32.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 8	Elisa Bonora ITA	+54 s +9 s	G5 / G2	7:18 6:58	24:44	Show details Prediction details: Elisa Bonora Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 11–20 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 8 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 4:51 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 44.6 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.83 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 13.4 s Gap behind: 4.1 s Result: Group 2 (4 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.84 km/h Running and total Run: 7:18 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 45 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:58 (3:40 / km) Error: +0:20 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 24:44 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 4:51 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:32 (35.2 km/h) Run: 7:18 (3:51 / km) Total: 24:44 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 49.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 19	Maxine Hollaus AUT	+10 s +13 s	G2 / G4	8:14 7:26	24:45	Show details Prediction details: Maxine Hollaus Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 14–18 Top-10 probability: 1 % Result: 19 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 4:07 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: -2.9 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 45 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.1 s Gap behind: 6.9 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 35.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.23 km/h Running and total Run: 8:14 (4:20 / km) Historical basis: 4:20 / km Best comparable pace: 4:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:26 (3:55 / km) Error: +0:48 / +0:25 / km Overall prediction: 24:45 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 4:07 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (36.2 km/h) Run: 8:14 (4:20 / km) Total: 24:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.1 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 26	Anja Bezlaj SLO	+27 s +31 s	G3 / G5	7:56 7:02	24:51	Show details Prediction details: Anja Bezlaj Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 12–22 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 26 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 4:24 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: -3.8 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 2.14 %, Sicherheit 69 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 23 % Speed: 35.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.2 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 5 (5 people) Speed: 33.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.21 km/h Running and total Run: 7:56 (4:11 / km) Historical basis: 4:14 / km Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -1.28 %, Sicherheit 67 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:02 (3:42 / km) Error: +0:54 / +0:29 / km Overall prediction: 24:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:24 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:19 (35.7 km/h) Run: 7:56 (4:11 / km) Total: 24:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 20.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 3	Noemi Badrutt SUI	+20 s +5 s	G2 / G1	8:37 7:02	25:08	Show details Prediction details: Noemi Badrutt Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 17–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: 14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 4:17 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 15.3 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.62 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 33 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 2.2 s Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.85 km/h Running and total Run: 8:37 (4:32 / km) Historical basis: 4:37 / km Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.79 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:02 (3:42 / km) Error: +1:35 / +0:50 / km Overall prediction: 25:08 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 4:17 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (36.2 km/h) Run: 8:37 (4:32 / km) Total: 25:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
18 / 27	Aurora Capussotti ITA	+58 s +30 s	G6 / G5	7:13 7:47	25:18	Show details Prediction details: Aurora Capussotti Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 15–20 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 27 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 4:55 Pace: 1:38 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: 27.7 s H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -1.43 %, Sicherheit 51 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.1 s Gap behind: 15.1 s Result: Group 5 (5 people) Speed: 33.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h Running and total Run: 7:13 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 55 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:47 (4:06 / km) Error: −0:34 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 25:18 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:55 (1:38 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:52 (34.0 km/h) Run: 7:13 (3:48 / km) Total: 25:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 50.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 13	Giulia Meneghetti ITA	+73 s +16 s	G6 / G3	7:25 7:08	25:30	Show details Prediction details: Giulia Meneghetti Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 17–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: 6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +73 s Time: 5:10 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 56.8 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.95 %, Sicherheit 43 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 34.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 15.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.58 km/h Running and total Run: 7:25 (3:54 / km) Historical basis: 3:54 / km Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 45 % Ergebnis Lauf: 7:08 (3:45 / km) Error: +0:17 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 25:30 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 5:10 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:52 (34.0 km/h) Run: 7:25 (3:54 / km) Total: 25:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 65.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 23	Verena Zehentmayr AUT	+38 s +49 s	G4 / G5	8:28 6:49	25:42	Show details Prediction details: Verena Zehentmayr Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 18–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 23 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 4:35 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: -10.7 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.1 s Gap behind: 0.7 s Result: Group 5 (5 people) Speed: 34.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.09 km/h Running and total Run: 8:28 (4:27 / km) Historical basis: 4:29 / km Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 6:49 (3:35 / km) Error: +1:39 / +0:52 / km Overall prediction: 25:42 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:35 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:34 (35.1 km/h) Run: 8:28 (4:27 / km) Total: 25:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 31.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 21	Lotte Frissen NED	+40 s +26 s	G4 / G4 correct	8:32 7:42	25:46	Show details Prediction details: Lotte Frissen Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 13–22 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 21 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: 4:37 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +26 s Fehler: 13.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 35.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.7 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 35.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.01 km/h Running and total Run: 8:32 (4:30 / km) Historical basis: 4:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:59 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:42 (4:03 / km) Error: +0:50 / +0:27 / km Overall prediction: 25:46 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 4:37 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:34 (35.1 km/h) Run: 8:32 (4:30 / km) Total: 25:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 32.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Neta Amir ISR	+0 s +12 s	G0 / G3	6:31		Show details Prediction details: Neta Amir Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 23–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:57 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +12 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 6:31 (3:26 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:57 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Kira Dobrovoczky HUN	+0 s +10 s	G0 / G3	7:02		Show details Prediction details: Kira Dobrovoczky Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 24–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:57 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +10 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 36.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:02 (3:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:57 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17	Marlies Cahunek AUT	+0 s +19 s	G0 / G3	7:17		Show details Prediction details: Marlies Cahunek Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 25–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:57 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +19 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (9 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:17 (3:50 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:57 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 22	Rebecca Bellini ITA	+0 s +35 s	G0 / G5	6:45		Show details Prediction details: Rebecca Bellini Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 26–26 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:57 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (5 people) Speed: 33.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 6:45 (3:33 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:57 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24	Vittoria Rossi ITA	+17 s +22 s	G2 / G4	7:58		Show details Prediction details: Vittoria Rossi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 24 Deviation: -24 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 4:14 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: -5.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 36 % Speed: 36.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.9 s Gap behind: 2.6 s Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 7:58 (4:12 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 16:06 (36.2 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 4:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 10.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25	Aurélie Aegerter SUI	+0 s +27 s	G0 / G4	8:03		Show details Prediction details: Aurélie Aegerter Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 27–27 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 25 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:57 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (5 people) Speed: 35.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:03 (4:14 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:57 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 28	Stela Babiakova SVK	+0 s +27 s	G0 / G5	8:15		Show details Prediction details: Stela Babiakova Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 28–28 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 28 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 3:57 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (5 people) Speed: 33.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 8:15 (4:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 3:57 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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