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Semifinal 2 Junior Men

08.05.2026 Porto Santa Margherita ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Junior Cup Caorle

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 08.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 68/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 397 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 42.3 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 08.05.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 64.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 67.9 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.1
Mean swim error20.0 s
Mean bike-speed error1.79 km/h
Correct bike groups9/20
No history8
Within the 80% range28.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Sebestyén Pál Kendeh-Kirchknopf
HUN
+6 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:02
5:59
 20:50
Show details
Prediction details: Sebestyén Pál Kendeh-Kirchknopf

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 3:52
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.3 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:02 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:59 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 20:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:52 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:42 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 6:02 (3:11 / km)
Total: 20:50
2 / 2 Adel Rassineux
FRA
+32 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 6:01
6:01
 21:21
Show details
Prediction details: Adel Rassineux

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 4:18
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 25.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:01 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:01 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 21:21
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 4:18 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 6:01 (3:10 / km)
Total: 21:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 23.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 14 Szabolcs Abrahám
HUN
+41 s
+12 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:06
5:55
 21:26
Show details
Prediction details: Szabolcs Abrahám

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 4:27
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 29.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 12.9 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:55 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 21:26
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:27 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 6:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 21:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 31.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 15 Tommaso Fogliatto
ITA
+39 s
+17 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:08
6:10
 21:28
Show details
Prediction details: Tommaso Fogliatto

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 4:25
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 22.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.02 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:08 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:10 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 21:28
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 4:25 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 6:08 (3:14 / km)
Total: 21:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:53
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 31.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 1 Maks Mori
SLO
+26 s
+17 s
G2 / G1
 6:21
5:53
 21:41
Show details
Prediction details: Maks Mori

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 4:12
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 9.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:21 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:53 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 21:41
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:12 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 6:21 (3:21 / km)
Total: 21:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 17.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 18 Giacomo Giorgini
ITA
+26 s
+8 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:22
6:33
 21:42
Show details
Prediction details: Giacomo Giorgini

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 4:12
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 18.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:22 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:33 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 21:42
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:12 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 6:22 (3:21 / km)
Total: 21:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 17.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 4 Jules Chabanel
FRA
+22 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 6:27
5:58
 21:47
Show details
Prediction details: Jules Chabanel

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 4:08
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 13.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.8 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:27 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:58 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 21:47
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:08 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 6:27 (3:24 / km)
Total: 21:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 11.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 13 Daniel Janitsch
AUT
+33 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 6:28
6:38
 21:48
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Janitsch

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–13
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 4:19
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 17.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.73 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:28 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:28 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.96 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:38 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 21:48
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:19 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 6:28 (3:24 / km)
Total: 21:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 24 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 12 Jakob Schwarhofer
AUT
+26 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 6:32
6:31
 21:52
Show details
Prediction details: Jakob Schwarhofer

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 4:12
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 10.5 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:32 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.06 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:31 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 21:52
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:12 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 6:32 (3:26 / km)
Total: 21:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:57
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 15.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 5 Nico Kalberer
SUI
+32 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 6:33
6:01
 21:53
Show details
Prediction details: Nico Kalberer

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 4:18
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 22.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -1.12 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:33 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:01 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 21:53
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:18 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 6:33 (3:27 / km)
Total: 21:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:57
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 21.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 11 Achille Alessandri
ITA
+13 s
+3 s
G3 / G1
 6:40
6:34
 22:01
Show details
Prediction details: Achille Alessandri

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 3:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 10.3 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.3 s
Gap behind: 8.8 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:40 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:34 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 22:01
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:07 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 6:40 (3:31 / km)
Total: 22:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 4.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 17 Levente Szabó
HUN
+37 s
+15 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:52
6:03
 22:12
Show details
Prediction details: Levente Szabó

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–18
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 4:23
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 21.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:52 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.52 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:03 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:49 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 22:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:23 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 6:52 (3:37 / km)
Total: 22:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 26.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 21 Erik Hudovornik
SLO
+32 s
+8 s
G2 / G2
correct 		7:13
6:38
 22:33
Show details
Prediction details: Erik Hudovornik

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 13–18
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 4:18
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 23.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -1.69 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:13 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:38 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 22:33
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:18 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 7:13 (3:48 / km)
Total: 22:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 22.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 19 Elia Martelloni
ITA
+36 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		7:13
6:47
 22:33
Show details
Prediction details: Elia Martelloni

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 13–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 4:22
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 24.7 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:13 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.57 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:47 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 22:33
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 4:22 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 7:13 (3:48 / km)
Total: 22:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 26.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 22 Kristupas Jančius
LTU
+31 s
+17 s
G2 / G2
correct 		7:27
6:47
 22:47
Show details
Prediction details: Kristupas Jančius

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–18
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 4:17
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.63 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:27 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:47 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 22:47
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:17 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 7:27 (3:55 / km)
Total: 22:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 22.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 23 Elia Di Bari
SUI
+30 s
+13 s
G2 / G2
correct 		7:34
7:04
 22:54
Show details
Prediction details: Elia Di Bari

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 4:16
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 17.2 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 2.34 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:34 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:04 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 22:54
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 4:16 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 7:34 (3:59 / km)
Total: 22:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 21.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 8 Yishai Hendel
ISR
+25 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 8:15
6:12
 23:35
Show details
Prediction details: Yishai Hendel

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 17–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 4:11
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 25.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:15 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:12 (3:16 / km)
Error: +2:03 / +1:05 / km
Overall prediction: 23:35
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 4:11 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 8:15 (4:20 / km)
Total: 23:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 16.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 7 Riccardo Rossi
ITA
+59 s
+12 s
G4 / G1
 6:22
6:01
 24:06
Show details
Prediction details: Riccardo Rossi

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–19
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 4:45
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 46.6 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -2.46 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -6.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:22 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:01 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 24:06
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:45 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (34.6 km/h)
Run: 6:22 (3:21 / km)
Total: 24:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 49.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 27 Val Rihar
SLO
+54 s
+20 s
G4 / G2
 8:27
7:53
 26:11
Show details
Prediction details: Val Rihar

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 4:40
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 34.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.9 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:27 (4:27 / km)
Historical basis: 4:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:53 (4:09 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 26:11
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 4:40 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:45 (34.6 km/h)
Run: 8:27 (4:27 / km)
Total: 26:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 45.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Ben Fressier
FRA
+0 s
+5 s
G0 / G1
6:06
Show details
Prediction details: Ben Fressier

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:06 (3:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 3:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Giacomo Casini
ITA
+0 s
+4 s
G0 / G1
6:20
Show details
Prediction details: Giacomo Casini

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:20 (3:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 3:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Asaf Zach
ISR
+0 s
+11 s
G0 / G1
6:17
Show details
Prediction details: Asaf Zach

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:17 (3:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 3:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Yair Oren
ISR
+0 s
+22 s
G0 / G2
6:11
Show details
Prediction details: Yair Oren

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:11 (3:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 3:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20 Leone Aruffo
ITA
+0 s
+11 s
G0 / G2
6:38
Show details
Prediction details: Leone Aruffo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:38 (3:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 3:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24 Giovanni Cossu
ITA
+0 s
+11 s
G0 / G2
7:22
Show details
Prediction details: Giovanni Cossu

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:22 (3:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 3:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 25 Jaka Mlakar
SLO
+0 s
+19 s
G0 / G2
6:41
Show details
Prediction details: Jaka Mlakar

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:41 (3:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 3:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 26 Danny Hemelrijk
NED
+34 s
+20 s
G2 / G3
6:40
Show details
Prediction details: Danny Hemelrijk

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 4:20
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 14.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:40 (3:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 4:20 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 14:39 (39.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:55
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 25.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 28 Alexander Kostolani
SVK
+0 s
+25 s
G0 / G2
8:48
Show details
Prediction details: Alexander Kostolani

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:48 (4:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 3:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.