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Semifinal 3 Junior Women

08.05.2026 Porto Santa Margherita ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Junior Cup Caorle

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 08.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 13 früheren Rennen und 188 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 27.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 08.05.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 65.4 % · 13 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.1
Mean swim error32.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.63 km/h
Correct bike groups3/17
No history9
Within the 80% range38.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 7 Csenge Orsolya Szász
HUN
+42 s
+14 s
G3 / G2
 6:26
6:44
 23:08
Show details
Prediction details: Csenge Orsolya Szász

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 4:56
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 27.5 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 1.17 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 10.5 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:26 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.13 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:44 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 23:08
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:56 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:50 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 6:26 (3:23 / km)
Total: 23:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 26.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 4 Maelis Rolin
FRA
+52 s
+5 s
G3 / G1
 6:30
7:01
 23:12
Show details
Prediction details: Maelis Rolin

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 5:06
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 47.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.5 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:30 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:01 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 23:12
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 5:06 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:50 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 6:30 (3:25 / km)
Total: 23:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:29
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 36.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2 Anouk Rigaud
FRA
+18 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 6:50
7:04
 23:23
Show details
Prediction details: Anouk Rigaud

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 4:32
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 17.8 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:50 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:04 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 23:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:32 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 6:50 (3:36 / km)
Total: 23:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 2.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 1 Korinna Katona
HUN
+11 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		7:45
6:59
 23:26
Show details
Prediction details: Korinna Katona

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 4:25
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:45 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.85 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:59 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 23:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:25 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:29 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 7:45 (4:05 / km)
Total: 23:26
5 / 6 Vittoria Facco
ITA
+24 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 6:56
7:21
 23:29
Show details
Prediction details: Vittoria Facco

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 4:38
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 16.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -1.42 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:56 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:21 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 23:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:38 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 6:56 (3:39 / km)
Total: 23:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 8.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Vanessa Del Carlo
ITA
+24 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 7:04
7:18
 23:37
Show details
Prediction details: Vanessa Del Carlo

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 4:38
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -1.02 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:04 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:18 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 23:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:38 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 7:04 (3:43 / km)
Total: 23:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:29
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 8.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 9 Etriin Etverk
EST
+16 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 7:26
7:32
 23:59
Show details
Prediction details: Etriin Etverk

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 9.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:26 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:32 (3:58 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 23:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:30 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 7:26 (3:55 / km)
Total: 23:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 0.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 11 Bettina Ecker
AUT
+38 s
+21 s
G3 / G2
 7:31
7:06
 24:13
Show details
Prediction details: Bettina Ecker

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 4:52
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 17.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:31 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:06 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 24:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:52 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:50 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 7:31 (3:58 / km)
Total: 24:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:29
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 22.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 21 Camilla Lisi
ITA
+39 s
+27 s
G3 / G3
correct 		7:42
7:25
 24:24
Show details
Prediction details: Camilla Lisi

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–11
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 4:53
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:42 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:25 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 24:24
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 4:53 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:50 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 7:42 (4:03 / km)
Total: 24:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 23.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 3 Amit Ben Adiva
ISR
+36 s
+7 s
G3 / G1
 8:12
7:03
 24:54
Show details
Prediction details: Amit Ben Adiva

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 4:50
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 29.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.5 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:12 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.31 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:03 (3:43 / km)
Error: +1:09 / +0:36 / km
Overall prediction: 24:54
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:50 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 15:50 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 8:12 (4:19 / km)
Total: 24:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:29
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 20.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 20 Lėja Bubulaitė
LTU
+27 s
+19 s
G2 / G2
correct 		8:56
8:13
 25:29
Show details
Prediction details: Lėja Bubulaitė

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–12
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 4:41
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 7.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.93 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 9.5 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:56 (4:42 / km)
Historical basis: 4:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.80 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:13 (4:19 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 25:29
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:41 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 16:07 (36.2 km/h)
Run: 8:56 (4:42 / km)
Total: 25:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 11.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 8 Gaia Silvestri
ITA
+61 s
+33 s
G4 / G2
 6:47
6:47
 25:50
Show details
Prediction details: Gaia Silvestri

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 5:15
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 28.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.39 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 10.5 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:47 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:47 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 25:50
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:15 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:02 (32.3 km/h)
Run: 6:47 (3:34 / km)
Total: 25:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:29
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 46.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 22 Zuzana Vedejová
SVK
+60 s
+30 s
G4 / G3
 7:41
7:37
 26:44
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Vedejová

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–14
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 5:14
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 29.6 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.11 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:41 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:37 (4:01 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 26:44
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 5:14 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:02 (32.3 km/h)
Run: 7:41 (4:03 / km)
Total: 26:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 44.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 19 Sofia Giunta
ITA
+72 s
+23 s
G5 / G2
 7:49
7:57
 27:04
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Giunta

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 13–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 5:26
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 48.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.27 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.5 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:49 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:57 (4:11 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 27:04
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 5:26 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:00 (32.3 km/h)
Run: 7:49 (4:07 / km)
Total: 27:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:29
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 56.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 16 Anna Pollini
ITA
+57 s
+21 s
G4 / G2
 8:14
7:42
 27:17
Show details
Prediction details: Anna Pollini

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–15
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 5:11
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 36.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.35 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:14 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:42 (4:03 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 27:17
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 5:11 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:02 (32.3 km/h)
Run: 8:14 (4:20 / km)
Total: 27:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:29
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 42.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 18 Yke Spelde
NED
+75 s
+33 s
G5 / G2
 9:00
7:48
 28:15
Show details
Prediction details: Yke Spelde

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 16–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 5:29
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 42.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 111.1 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:00 (4:44 / km)
Historical basis: 4:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:48 (4:06 / km)
Error: +1:12 / +0:38 / km
Overall prediction: 28:15
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:29 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:00 (32.3 km/h)
Run: 9:00 (4:44 / km)
Total: 28:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:29
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 59.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 15 Petra Vasilić
SRB
+186 s
+18 s
G6 / G2
 8:09
7:35
 29:31
Show details
Prediction details: Petra Vasilić

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +186 s
Time: 7:20
Pace: 2:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 168.2 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 111.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:09 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:35 (3:59 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 29:31
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 7:20 (2:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:16 (31.9 km/h)
Run: 8:09 (4:18 / km)
Total: 29:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:29
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 170.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10 Yael Lorez
SUI
+0 s
+25 s
G0 / G2
7:00
Show details
Prediction details: Yael Lorez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 18–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:00 (3:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Enikő Hóbor
HUN
+0 s
+17 s
G0 / G2
7:03
Show details
Prediction details: Enikő Hóbor

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:03 (3:43 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Viola Cappa
ITA
+0 s
+21 s
G0 / G2
7:16
Show details
Prediction details: Viola Cappa

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:16 (3:49 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Nir Shemesh
ISR
+0 s
+17 s
G0 / G2
7:32
Show details
Prediction details: Nir Shemesh

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:32 (3:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Luisa Rohe
AUT
+0 s
+23 s
G0 / G2
7:29
Show details
Prediction details: Luisa Rohe

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:29 (3:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 23 Giada Lobsiger
SUI
+0 s
+33 s
G0 / G4
7:13
Show details
Prediction details: Giada Lobsiger

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:13 (3:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24 Ambra Lobsiger
SUI
+0 s
+34 s
G0 / G4
7:26
Show details
Prediction details: Ambra Lobsiger

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:26 (3:55 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 25 Nadja Mostar
SLO
+0 s
+61 s
G0 / G5
7:54
Show details
Prediction details: Nadja Mostar

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:54 (4:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 26 Bistra Gruevska
MKD
+0 s
+60 s
G0 / G6
8:10
Show details
Prediction details: Bistra Gruevska

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 29.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:10 (4:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.