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Junior Women

04.07.2026 NED
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Junior Cup Holten

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 04.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 89/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 43 früheren Rennen und 584 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 51.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 77.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 81.8 % · 43 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.8
Mean swim error11.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.27 km/h
Correct bike groups7/19
No history3
Within the 80% range45.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Addison Houslip
AUS
+31 s
+44 s
G2 / G3
 17:01
18:25
 48:24
Show details
Prediction details: Addison Houslip

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -13.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: −1:24 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 48:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:52 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Total: 48:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 4.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 8 Beate Jansone
LAT
+14 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 18:07
20:37
 48:37
Show details
Prediction details: Beate Jansone

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Error: −2:30 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 48:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:08 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Total: 48:37
3 / 1 Luca Vanderbruggen
BEL
+22 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:20
19:08
 48:50
Show details
Prediction details: Luca Vanderbruggen

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 11.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:08 (3:50 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 48:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:08 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Total: 48:50
4 / 5 Clara Robert
BEL
+22 s
+36 s
G1 / G3
 18:34
18:56
 49:04
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Robert

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -13.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:04
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:08 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Total: 49:04
5 / 9 Kathrin Ritter
AUT
+21 s
+9 s
G1 / G2
 19:14
20:45
 49:44
Show details
Prediction details: Kathrin Ritter

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Error: −1:31 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 49:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:08 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Total: 49:44
6 / 4 Gwen Watson
AUS
+14 s
+21 s
G1 / G3
 19:28
18:43
 49:58
Show details
Prediction details: Gwen Watson

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -7.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 49:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:08 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Total: 49:58
7 / 10 Shai Meital
ISR
+32 s
+42 s
G2 / G3
 18:53
20:12
 50:16
Show details
Prediction details: Shai Meital

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -10.3 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:12 (4:02 / km)
Error: −1:19 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 50:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:52 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Total: 50:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 5.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 2 Hayley Cornwall
NZL
+29 s
+14 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:19
18:53
 50:42
Show details
Prediction details: Hayley Cornwall

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 14.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:52 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Total: 50:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 2.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 6 Sophie Webber
NZL
+37 s
+14 s
G3 / G2
 19:37
20:09
 51:58
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Webber

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–11
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:42
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 22.7 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 10.9 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:44 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Total: 51:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 19.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 12 Lia Depret
BEL
+69 s
+54 s
G4 / G4
correct 		19:37
18:53
 53:29
Show details
Prediction details: Lia Depret

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–15
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 11:14
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 14.8 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.2 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 53:29
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:14 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:43 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Total: 53:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 51.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 13 Maxime Geentjens
BEL
+54 s
+61 s
G4 / G5
 19:47
20:22
 53:39
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Geentjens

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–16
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 10:59
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 15.2 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:47 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:22 (4:04 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 53:39
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:59 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:43 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 19:47 (3:57 / km)
Total: 53:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 36 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 15 Alessia De Haan
AUT
+28 s
+18 s
G2 / G3
 22:24
22:59
 53:47
Show details
Prediction details: Alessia De Haan

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:24 (4:29 / km)
Historical basis: 4:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:59 (4:36 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 53:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:52 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 22:24 (4:29 / km)
Total: 53:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 2.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 11 Lucie Philippe
BEL
+36 s
+24 s
G3 / G3
correct 		21:39
20:34
 54:00
Show details
Prediction details: Lucie Philippe

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:39 (4:20 / km)
Historical basis: 4:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -1.78 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:34 (4:07 / km)
Error: +1:05 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 54:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:44 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 21:39 (4:20 / km)
Total: 54:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 18.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 7 Nerea Demuyt
BEL
+74 s
+45 s
G5 / G3
 19:51
19:14
 54:03
Show details
Prediction details: Nerea Demuyt

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 11:19
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 29.1 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 57.3 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 54:03
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:19 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:58 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Total: 54:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 56.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 14 Loesha Loos
NED
+48 s
+51 s
G4 / G4
correct 		21:36
20:41
 55:28
Show details
Prediction details: Loesha Loos

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:53
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.9 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:36 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:41 (4:08 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 55:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:53 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:43 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 21:36 (4:19 / km)
Total: 55:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 21.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 19 Lotte Frissen
NED
+50 s
+56 s
G4 / G5
 23:56
22:48
 57:48
Show details
Prediction details: Lotte Frissen

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 16–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -6.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:56 (4:47 / km)
Historical basis: 4:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:48 (4:34 / km)
Error: +1:08 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 57:48
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:43 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 23:56 (4:47 / km)
Total: 57:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 32.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 20 Julia Buschgens
NED
+131 s
+141 s
G6 / G6
correct 		21:58
21:07
 58:50
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Buschgens

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 17–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +131 s
Time: 12:16
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +141 s
Fehler: -9.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 57.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:58 (4:24 / km)
Historical basis: 4:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:07 (4:13 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 58:50
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 12:16 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:41 (34.6 km/h)
Run: 21:58 (4:24 / km)
Total: 58:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 113.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 21 Anna Van Arkel
NED
+73 s
+66 s
G5 / G5
correct 		28:29
25:47
 1:02:41
Show details
Prediction details: Anna Van Arkel

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 19–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 11:18
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 28:29 (5:42 / km)
Historical basis: 5:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:47 (5:09 / km)
Error: +2:42 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:41
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:18 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:58 (36.4 km/h)
Run: 28:29 (5:42 / km)
Total: 1:02:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 55.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16 Tamara Langer
AUT
+0 s
+57 s
G0 / G5
21:46
Show details
Prediction details: Tamara Langer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 20–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:46 (4:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Niene Dewaelheyns
BEL
+0 s
+5 s
G0 / G4
22:30
Show details
Prediction details: Niene Dewaelheyns

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:30 (4:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Eve Burns
IRL
+18 s
+19 s
G1 / G5
22:00
Show details
Prediction details: Eve Burns

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -1.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:00 (4:24 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:08 (39.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 22 Nina Grajdura
POL
+0 s
+96 s
G0 / G6
22:15
Show details
Prediction details: Nina Grajdura

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +96 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:15 (4:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.