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Junior Women

23.05.2026 Kapitańska 23 POL
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Junior Cup Olsztyn

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 23.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 84/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 72 früheren Rennen und 1324 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 39.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.05.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 67.7 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 93.5 % · 72 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.8
Mean swim error10.3 s
Mean bike-speed error2.17 km/h
Correct bike groups10/29
No history2
Within the 80% range54.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Anouk Danna
SUI
+25 s
+31 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:10
16:16
 48:36
Show details
Prediction details: Anouk Danna

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -6.3 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 48:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:56 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 48:36
2 / 2 Kimey Casanova
SUI
+29 s
+26 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:10
17:14
 49:36
Show details
Prediction details: Kimey Casanova

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 49:36
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:56 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Total: 49:36
3 / 3 Hanna Månsson
SWE
+21 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:40
18:11
 50:06
Show details
Prediction details: Hanna Månsson

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 50:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:56 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Total: 50:06
4 / 8 Dana Soroka
UKR
+17 s
+30 s
G1 / G2
 19:07
18:21
 50:33
Show details
Prediction details: Dana Soroka

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -12.9 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 50:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:56 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Total: 50:33
5 / 26 Etriin Etverk
EST
+29 s
+32 s
G1 / G3
 19:17
23:17
 50:43
Show details
Prediction details: Etriin Etverk

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–13
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -2.6 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:17 (4:39 / km)
Error: −4:00 / −0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 50:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:56 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Total: 50:43
6 / 23 Patience Lamb
GBR
+6 s
+0 s
G1 / G4
 19:40
18:47
 51:06
Show details
Prediction details: Patience Lamb

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 8.9 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 51:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:56 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Total: 51:06
7 / 18 Mika Vitkin
ISR
+19 s
+31 s
G1 / G2
 19:52
20:21
 51:18
Show details
Prediction details: Mika Vitkin

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–18
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -12.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:21 (4:04 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:56 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:52 (3:58 / km)
Total: 51:18
8 / 5 Adar Haya Kurant
ISR
+53 s
+51 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:47
17:34
 51:29
Show details
Prediction details: Adar Haya Kurant

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–15
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 1.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: +1:13 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 51:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Total: 51:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
9 / 19 Giulia Marioni
SUI
+56 s
+47 s
G2 / G3
 18:47
19:34
 51:29
Show details
Prediction details: Giulia Marioni

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–15
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 8.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 51:29
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Total: 51:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
10 / 15 Laura Marioni
SUI
+73 s
+70 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:14
19:00
 51:42
Show details
Prediction details: Laura Marioni

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–21
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: 3.3 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.2 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 51:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:12 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Total: 51:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 39 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 7 Martyna Gajda
POL
+15 s
+30 s
G1 / G2
 20:21
18:06
 51:47
Show details
Prediction details: Martyna Gajda

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 4–20
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -15.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.9 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:21 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Error: +2:15 / +0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 51:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:56 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 20:21 (4:04 / km)
Total: 51:47
12 / 12 Kaisa Keränen
FIN
+53 s
+38 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:14
18:51
 51:56
Show details
Prediction details: Kaisa Keränen

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–17
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 14.8 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Total: 51:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 18.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 6 Shai Meital
ISR
+47 s
+38 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:21
17:58
 52:03
Show details
Prediction details: Shai Meital

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 5–18
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:21 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 52:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:21 (3:52 / km)
Total: 52:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 12.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 10 Anja Bezlaj
SLO
+61 s
+53 s
G2 / G3
 19:22
17:55
 52:04
Show details
Prediction details: Anja Bezlaj

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 9–23
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 12.2 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:22 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: +1:27 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 52:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:22 (3:52 / km)
Total: 52:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 26.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 9 Noemi Badrutt
SUI
+28 s
+26 s
G1 / G1
correct 		20:57
19:59
 52:23
Show details
Prediction details: Noemi Badrutt

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–20
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 1.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:57 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (4:00 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 52:23
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:56 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 20:57 (4:11 / km)
Total: 52:23
16 / 4 Mikkeline Fugleberg
DEN
+46 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 19:42
18:49
 52:24
Show details
Prediction details: Mikkeline Fugleberg

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 6–18
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 20.2 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:42 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 52:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:42 (3:56 / km)
Total: 52:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 11.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 14 Ayşe Simay Sahan
TUR
+42 s
+43 s
G2 / G3
 19:57
18:45
 52:39
Show details
Prediction details: Ayşe Simay Sahan

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 4–21
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -0.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:57 (3:59 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Error: +1:12 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 52:39
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 19:57 (3:59 / km)
Total: 52:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 7.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 20 Alicja Gurdziołek
POL
+35 s
+61 s
G2 / G3
 20:05
19:38
 52:47
Show details
Prediction details: Alicja Gurdziołek

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 9–19
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -26.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 38 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:05 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:38 (3:56 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 52:47
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 20:05 (4:01 / km)
Total: 52:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 25 Lotti Lédeczi
HUN
+75 s
+72 s
G3 / G5
 19:24
18:54
 52:52
Show details
Prediction details: Lotti Lédeczi

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 11–23
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 10:53
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 3.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 10.1 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 52:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:53 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:12 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Total: 52:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 41.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 17 Marlies Cahunek
AUT
+41 s
+52 s
G2 / G3
 20:19
19:01
 53:01
Show details
Prediction details: Marlies Cahunek

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 13–20
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -11.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:19 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 53:01
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 20:19 (4:04 / km)
Total: 53:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 6.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 29 Lėja Bubulaitė
LTU
+48 s
+54 s
G2 / G4
 20:36
22:34
 53:18
Show details
Prediction details: Lėja Bubulaitė

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 14–22
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -6.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:36 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 1.36 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:34 (4:31 / km)
Error: −1:58 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 53:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 20:36 (4:07 / km)
Total: 53:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 13.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 22 Kathrin Haiböck
AUT
+52 s
+55 s
G2 / G3
 21:13
20:55
 53:55
Show details
Prediction details: Kathrin Haiböck

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 19–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -3.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:13 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:55 (4:11 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 53:55
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 21:13 (4:15 / km)
Total: 53:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 17.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 11 Sofia Hämäläinen
FIN
+60 s
+39 s
G2 / G2
correct 		22:12
18:50
 54:54
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Hämäläinen

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 20.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:12 (4:26 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Error: +3:22 / +0:40 / km
Overall prediction: 54:54
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:40 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 22:12 (4:26 / km)
Total: 54:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 25.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 13 Roni Waiskop Waks
ISR
+86 s
+68 s
G4 / G3
 19:06
18:05
 56:08
Show details
Prediction details: Roni Waiskop Waks

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 15–25
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 11:04
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: 17.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 56:08
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:04 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:32 (33.8 km/h)
Run: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Total: 56:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 51.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 27 Amina Marchenko
UKR
+106 s
+93 s
G5 / G6
 22:54
20:26
 1:00:21
Show details
Prediction details: Amina Marchenko

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 25–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +106 s
Time: 11:24
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +93 s
Fehler: 13.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.9 s
Gap behind: 8.6 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:54 (4:35 / km)
Historical basis: 4:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:26 (4:05 / km)
Error: +2:28 / +0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:21
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:24 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:32 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 22:54 (4:35 / km)
Total: 1:00:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 71.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 31 Minna Li Mäesepp
EST
+86 s
+93 s
G4 / G7
 23:55
23:47
 1:00:57
Show details
Prediction details: Minna Li Mäesepp

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 25–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 11:04
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +93 s
Fehler: -6.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:55 (4:47 / km)
Historical basis: 4:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -2.27 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:47 (4:45 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:57
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:04 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:32 (33.8 km/h)
Run: 23:55 (4:47 / km)
Total: 1:00:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 51.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 24 Nenna Mäkinen
FIN
+115 s
+91 s
G5 / G5
correct 		23:42
18:47
 1:01:09
Show details
Prediction details: Nenna Mäkinen

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 24–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +115 s
Time: 11:33
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: 23.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:42 (4:44 / km)
Historical basis: 4:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Error: +4:55 / +0:59 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:33 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:32 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 23:42 (4:44 / km)
Total: 1:01:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 80.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 28 Maria Ivashchenko
UKR
+90 s
+58 s
G4 / G8
 24:47
20:15
 1:01:49
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Ivashchenko

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 26–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +90 s
Time: 11:08
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 32.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 15.9 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:47 (4:57 / km)
Historical basis: 5:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -2.26 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (4:03 / km)
Error: +4:32 / +0:54 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:49
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:08 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:32 (33.8 km/h)
Run: 24:47 (4:57 / km)
Total: 1:01:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 55.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 21 Zofia Rosin
POL
+29 s
+33 s
G1 / G3
 36:50
20:26
 1:08:16
Show details
Prediction details: Zofia Rosin

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 29–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -4.0 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:50 (7:22 / km)
Historical basis: 7:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:26 (4:05 / km)
Error: +16:24 / +3:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:08:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:56 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 36:50 (7:22 / km)
Total: 1:08:16
0 / 16 Thilde Mortensen
DEN
+0 s
+70 s
G0 / G3
19:04
Show details
Prediction details: Thilde Mortensen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 30–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 30 Maja Michna
POL
+0 s
+89 s
G0 / G9
20:45
Show details
Prediction details: Maja Michna

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 31–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.