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Junior Women

29.03.2026 Quarteira POR
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Junior Cup Quarteira

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 29.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 77/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 54.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 80.0 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.1
Mean swim error14.9 s
Mean bike-speed error1.97 km/h
Correct bike groups2/29
No history6
Within the 80% range28.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Anouk Danna
SUI
+18 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 16:57
17:09
 49:32
Show details
Prediction details: Anouk Danna

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -1.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.96 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Total: 49:32
2 / 6 Jázmin Kropkó
HUN
+5 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 18:23
18:43
 50:58
Show details
Prediction details: Jázmin Kropkó

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 5.2 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Total: 50:58
3 / 5 Teresa Vizio
ITA
+36 s
+30 s
G2 / G4
 18:31
17:59
 51:14
Show details
Prediction details: Teresa Vizio

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 5.7 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km)
Total: 51:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 8.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 9 Sophie Richmond
GBR
+40 s
+26 s
G2 / G3
 18:39
18:56
 51:22
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Richmond

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:39 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:22
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 18:39 (3:44 / km)
Total: 51:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 13.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3 Kitty Scott
GBR
+43 s
+21 s
G2 / G3
 18:42
18:15
 51:25
Show details
Prediction details: Kitty Scott

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–18
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 21.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:25
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Total: 51:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 15.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8 Luca Vanderbruggen
BEL
+20 s
+22 s
G1 / G4
 18:51
18:20
 51:26
Show details
Prediction details: Luca Vanderbruggen

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–15
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -1.8 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Total: 51:26
7 / 17 Catarina Felício Santos
POR
+44 s
+39 s
G2 / G4
 19:09
19:44
 51:52
Show details
Prediction details: Catarina Felício Santos

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:49
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 5.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 8.6 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Total: 51:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 17.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 12 Dana Soroka
UKR
+10 s
+11 s
G1 / G3
 19:30
19:19
 52:05
Show details
Prediction details: Dana Soroka

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: -0.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Total: 52:05
9 / 13 Lauren Mitchell
GBR
+17 s
+16 s
G1 / G3
 19:33
19:22
 52:08
Show details
Prediction details: Lauren Mitchell

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:33 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:22 (3:52 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 19:33 (3:55 / km)
Total: 52:08
10 / 32 Ellie Birchall
GBR
+32 s
+25 s
G2 / G9
 19:28
21:34
 52:11
Show details
Prediction details: Ellie Birchall

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–19
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.5 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:34 (4:19 / km)
Error: −2:06 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 52:11
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Total: 52:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 4.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 23 Míra Miszlai
HUN
+57 s
+38 s
G3 / G7
 18:29
18:38
 52:19
Show details
Prediction details: Míra Miszlai

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 4–22
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 11:02
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 19.2 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 19.5 s
Result: Group 7 (7 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:19
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:53 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Total: 52:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:50
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
About 11.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +45.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 18 Patience Lamb
GBR
+9 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:46 52:21
Show details
Prediction details: Patience Lamb

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–13
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 9.2 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 52:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Total: 52:21
13 / 15 Zara Jones
GBR
+15 s
+17 s
G1 / G3
 19:47
19:44
 52:22
Show details
Prediction details: Zara Jones

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 7–14
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 10:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:47 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:22
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 19:47 (3:57 / km)
Total: 52:22
14 / 11 Sofia Almeida Sousa
POR
+38 s
+24 s
G2 / G3
 19:58
19:10
 52:41
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Almeida Sousa

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–18
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 52:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Total: 52:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 10.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 2 Candela Sánchez Touza
ESP
+27 s
+11 s
G2 / G3
 20:07
18:12
 52:50
Show details
Prediction details: Candela Sánchez Touza

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 16.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 4.5 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.39 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:12 (3:38 / km)
Error: +1:55 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 52:50
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Total: 52:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 0.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 10 Clara Robert
BEL
+20 s
+26 s
G1 / G4
 20:45
18:45
 53:20
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Robert

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 6–21
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -6.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Error: +2:00 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 53:20
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Total: 53:20
17 / 14 Marta Ribeiro
POR
+44 s
+40 s
G2 / G4
 20:46
19:03
 53:29
Show details
Prediction details: Marta Ribeiro

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 16–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:49
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 3.6 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Error: +1:43 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 53:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Total: 53:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 16.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 7 Darcy Gladwell
GBR
+12 s
+13 s
G1 / G3
 21:04
18:44
 53:39
Show details
Prediction details: Darcy Gladwell

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 16–18
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -1.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Error: +2:20 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 53:39
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:17 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Total: 53:39
19 / 16 Anna Patterson
GBR
+18 s
+12 s
G1 / G3
 21:32
20:10
 54:07
Show details
Prediction details: Anna Patterson

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:32 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:10 (4:02 / km)
Error: +1:22 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 54:07
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 21:32 (4:18 / km)
Total: 54:07
20 / 26 Maxime Geentjens
BEL
+36 s
+73 s
G2 / G8
 21:30
19:49
 54:13
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Geentjens

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 19–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: -37.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:30 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:49 (3:58 / km)
Error: +1:41 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 54:13
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 21:30 (4:18 / km)
Total: 54:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 8.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 20 Sofia Duarte
POR
+34 s
+24 s
G2 / G6
 22:23
19:05
 55:06
Show details
Prediction details: Sofia Duarte

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 21–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 9.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:23 (4:29 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.49 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:05 (3:49 / km)
Error: +3:18 / +0:40 / km
Overall prediction: 55:06
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:59 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 22:23 (4:29 / km)
Total: 55:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 19 Marit De Meulenaere
BEL
+21 s
+27 s
G1 / G4
 22:36
20:42
 55:11
Show details
Prediction details: Marit De Meulenaere

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 21–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -5.7 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:36 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:42 (4:08 / km)
Error: +1:54 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 55:11
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 22:36 (4:31 / km)
Total: 55:11
23 / 22 Francisca Leirião
POR
+53 s
+25 s
G3 / G3
correct 		22:56
21:35
 56:46
Show details
Prediction details: Francisca Leirião

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 24–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:58
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 27.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.6 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:56 (4:35 / km)
Historical basis: 4:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:35 (4:19 / km)
Error: +1:21 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 56:46
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:58 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:53 (36.5 km/h)
Run: 22:56 (4:35 / km)
Total: 56:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 25.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 24 Inês Fernandes
POR
+77 s
+74 s
G4 / G7
 21:48
19:26
 57:09
Show details
Prediction details: Inês Fernandes

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 24–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.5 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 7 (7 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:48 (4:22 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:26 (3:53 / km)
Error: +2:22 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 57:09
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:04 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 21:48 (4:22 / km)
Total: 57:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 58.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 21 Isabel Moore
GBR
+84 s
+15 s
G6 / G3
 19:40
21:30
 57:10
Show details
Prediction details: Isabel Moore

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 16–27
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +84 s
Time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 68.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.25 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:30 (4:18 / km)
Error: −1:50 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 57:10
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:29 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:04 (33.3 km/h)
Run: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Total: 57:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 65.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 35 Amina Marchenko
UKR
+83 s
+107 s
G6 / G10
 20:58
23:04
 58:28
Show details
Prediction details: Amina Marchenko

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 21–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +83 s
Time: 11:28
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +107 s
Fehler: -24.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 28.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:58 (4:12 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:04 (4:37 / km)
Error: −2:06 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 58:28
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:28 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:04 (33.3 km/h)
Run: 20:58 (4:12 / km)
Total: 58:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 65.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 31 Ana Fung
POR
+86 s
+79 s
G6 / G7
 22:40
23:06
 1:00:10
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Fung

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 26–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 11:31
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 42.3 s
Result: Group 7 (7 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:40 (4:32 / km)
Historical basis: 4:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:06 (4:37 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:10
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:31 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:04 (33.3 km/h)
Run: 22:40 (4:32 / km)
Total: 1:00:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 58.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 29 Joana Alves
POR
+128 s
+41 s
G5 / G7
 39:16
20:40
 1:16:45
Show details
Prediction details: Joana Alves

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 29–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +128 s
Time: 12:13
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 87.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 42.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (7 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:16 (7:51 / km)
Historical basis: 8:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:40 (4:08 / km)
Error: +18:36 / +3:43 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:45
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:13 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:21 (34.0 km/h)
Run: 39:16 (7:51 / km)
Total: 1:16:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 101.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Emma Graham-Brown
GBR
+0 s
+20 s
G1 / G3
18:22
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Graham-Brown

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -20.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 3 (13 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:13 (37.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 25 Inês Duarte
POR
+0 s
+37 s
G0 / G7
19:45
Show details
Prediction details: Inês Duarte

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 30–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (7 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 27 Betsy North
GBR
+0 s
+31 s
G0 / G6
20:53
Show details
Prediction details: Betsy North

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 31–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:53 (4:11 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 28 Eloise Foster
GBR
+0 s
+82 s
G0 / G8
19:56
Show details
Prediction details: Eloise Foster

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 32–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +82 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:56 (3:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 30 Eléonore Pautz
SUI
+0 s
+28 s
G0 / G7
21:06
Show details
Prediction details: Eléonore Pautz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 33–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (7 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:06 (4:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 33 Amélie Mansfield
SUI
+0 s
+80 s
G0 / G9
21:39
Show details
Prediction details: Amélie Mansfield

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 34–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +80 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:39 (4:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 34 Leonor Calçada
POR
+0 s
+14 s
G0 / G7
24:35
Show details
Prediction details: Leonor Calçada

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 35–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (7 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:35 (4:55 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.