Prediction comparison

PTS4 Men

14.06.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Para Championships Tarragona

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 76/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 34 früheren Rennen und 1057 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 52.4 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 60.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 90.0 % · 34 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.3

Mean swim error71.6 s

Mean bike-speed error1.44 km/h

Correct bike groups4/10

No history0

Within the 80% range20.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Alexis Hanquinquant FRA	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:31 16:40	46:37	Show details Prediction details: Alexis Hanquinquant Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:54 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 29 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 56.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h Running and total Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 46:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:06 (39.9 km/h) Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km) Total: 46:37
2 / 3	Pierre-Antoine Baele FRA	+56 s +27 s	G2 / G2 correct	17:20 16:57	49:21	Show details Prediction details: Pierre-Antoine Baele Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 10:50 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 29.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 30 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 38.6 km/h Gap ahead: 56.0 s Gap behind: 34.9 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 39.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h Running and total Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 31 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:57 (3:23 / km) Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 49:21 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:50 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:05 (38.6 km/h) Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km) Total: 49:21 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 53.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2	Nil Riudavets Victory ESP	+91 s +33 s	G3 / G2	16:35 16:35	50:35	Show details Prediction details: Nil Riudavets Victory Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +91 s Time: 11:25 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +33 s Fehler: 57.9 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 31 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Gap ahead: 34.9 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.46 km/h Running and total Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:19 / km) Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 50:35 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:25 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km) Total: 50:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 88 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4	Antonio Franko CRO	+93 s +37 s	G3 / G3 correct	18:42 18:12	52:42	Show details Prediction details: Antonio Franko Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +93 s Time: 11:27 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 56.4 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 23 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 20.6 s Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 37.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.24 km/h Running and total Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:12 (3:38 / km) Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 52:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:27 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:26 (37.0 km/h) Run: 18:42 (3:44 / km) Total: 52:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
5 / 7	Michele Pasquazzo ITA	+379 s +301 s	G5 / G5 correct	18:31 18:22	57:50	Show details Prediction details: Michele Pasquazzo Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 7–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +379 s Time: 16:13 Pace: 2:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +301 s Fehler: 78.3 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.3 s Gap behind: 320.4 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.52 km/h Running and total Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:40 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 57:50 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 16:13 (2:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:00 (36.4 km/h) Run: 18:31 (3:42 / km) Total: 57:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 376.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5	Andrey Tolstikov RUS	+114 s +64 s	G4 / G3	20:12 18:27	58:16	Show details Prediction details: Andrey Tolstikov Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +114 s Time: 11:48 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +64 s Fehler: 50.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.2 km/h Gap ahead: 20.6 s Gap behind: 49.3 s Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 36.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.57 km/h Running and total Run: 20:12 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:27 (3:41 / km) Error: +1:45 / +0:21 / km Overall prediction: 58:16 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:48 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:10 (33.2 km/h) Run: 20:12 (4:02 / km) Total: 58:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 111.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8	Yoen Constantin SUI	+163 s +130 s	G5 / G4	21:30 19:22	1:00:49	Show details Prediction details: Yoen Constantin Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +163 s Time: 12:37 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +130 s Fehler: 33.3 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 49.3 s Gap behind: 43.9 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.27 km/h Running and total Run: 21:30 (4:18 / km) Historical basis: 4:18 / km Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:22 (3:52 / km) Error: +2:08 / +0:26 / km Overall prediction: 1:00:49 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 12:37 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:00 (36.4 km/h) Run: 21:30 (4:18 / km) Total: 1:00:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 160.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 10	Isak Brenden NOR	+700 s +404 s	G6 / G7	24:53 26:50	1:14:39	Show details Prediction details: Isak Brenden Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +700 s Time: 21:34 Pace: 2:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +404 s Fehler: 295.7 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 320.4 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 33.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.82 km/h Running and total Run: 24:53 (4:59 / km) Historical basis: 5:00 / km Best comparable pace: 5:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 19 % Ergebnis Lauf: 26:50 (5:22 / km) Error: −1:57 / −0:23 / km Overall prediction: 1:14:39 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 21:34 (2:53 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:06 (31.5 km/h) Run: 24:53 (4:59 / km) Total: 1:14:39 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 696.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Samuel Rodriguez Masian ESP	+207 s +169 s	G5 / G3	19:19		Show details Prediction details: Samuel Rodriguez Masian Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +207 s Time: 13:21 Pace: 1:47 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +169 s Fehler: 38.2 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 43.9 s Gap behind: 163.8 s Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 38.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.26 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:19 (3:52 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 13:21 (1:47 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:00 (36.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:47 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m About 154.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +52.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9	Tahir Erdemir TUR	+371 s +294 s	G5 / G6	18:48		Show details Prediction details: Tahir Erdemir Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +371 s Time: 16:05 Pace: 2:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +294 s Fehler: 77.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 163.8 s Gap behind: 8.3 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.82 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 16:05 (2:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:00 (36.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:26 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 339.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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