Prediction comparison

PTS4 Women

14.06.2026 ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2026 Europe Triathlon Para Championships Tarragona

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 71/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 45 früheren Rennen und 793 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 42.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 57.1 % · 45 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.0

Mean swim error40.4 s

Mean bike-speed error1.70 km/h

Correct bike groups1/6

No history1

Within the 80% range42.9 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 3	Megan Richter GBR	+65 s +89 s	G1 / G2	22:32 23:17	59:57	Show details Prediction details: Megan Richter Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: 12:50 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +89 s Fehler: -24.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 32.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 65.0 s Gap behind: 43.8 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 34.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.87 km/h Running and total Run: 22:32 (4:30 / km) Historical basis: 4:31 / km Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 4 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:17 (4:39 / km) Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 59:57 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:50 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:20 (32.2 km/h) Run: 22:32 (4:30 / km) Total: 59:57
2 / 1	Camille Seneclauze FRA	+109 s +70 s	G2 / G3	22:36 22:53	1:01:53	Show details Prediction details: Camille Seneclauze Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +109 s Time: 13:34 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +70 s Fehler: 38.8 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 43.8 s Gap behind: 24.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 33.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.11 km/h Running and total Run: 22:36 (4:31 / km) Historical basis: 4:29 / km Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:53 (4:35 / km) Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:01:53 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:34 (1:49 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:29 (32.0 km/h) Run: 22:36 (4:31 / km) Total: 1:01:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:17 Pace: 1:38 / 100 m About 76.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4	Hannah Moore GBR	+0 s +5 s	G1 / G1 correct	25:51 25:05	1:03:16	Show details Prediction details: Hannah Moore Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 11:45 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: -5.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 32.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 65.0 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 33.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h Running and total Run: 25:51 (5:10 / km) Historical basis: 5:10 / km Best comparable pace: 4:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:05 (5:01 / km) Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km Overall prediction: 1:03:16 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:45 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:20 (32.2 km/h) Run: 25:51 (5:10 / km) Total: 1:03:16
4 / 6	Kübra Dere TUR	+133 s +183 s	G3 / G5	28:34 30:42	1:15:42	Show details Prediction details: Kübra Dere Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +133 s Time: 13:58 Pace: 1:52 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +183 s Fehler: -50.2 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 24.0 s Gap behind: 20.2 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 27.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.34 km/h Running and total Run: 28:34 (5:43 / km) Historical basis: 5:50 / km Best comparable pace: 5:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.01 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 30:42 (6:08 / km) Error: −2:08 / −0:26 / km Overall prediction: 1:15:42 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 13:58 (1:52 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 43:22 (27.5 km/h) Run: 28:34 (5:43 / km) Total: 1:15:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:51 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 126.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2	Zoé Reveillon FRA	+0 s +0 s	G0 / G1	23:38		Show details Prediction details: Zoé Reveillon Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 11:45 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 33.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:38 (4:44 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 11:45 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Sabine Ellerbrock GER	+226 s +309 s	G3 / G4	27:40		Show details Prediction details: Sabine Ellerbrock Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +226 s Time: 15:31 Pace: 2:04 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +309 s Fehler: -83.3 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 72.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 30.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.30 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 27:40 (5:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 15:31 (2:04 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 43:22 (27.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:51 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 219.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7	Claudia Tubío Quintáns ESP	+153 s +112 s	G3 / G5	40:34		Show details Prediction details: Claudia Tubío Quintáns Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +153 s Time: 14:18 Pace: 1:54 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +112 s Fehler: 41.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 20.2 s Gap behind: 72.7 s Result: Group 5 (2 people) Speed: 25.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.97 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:34 (8:07 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 14:18 (1:54 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 43:22 (27.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 11:51 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 147.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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