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PTVI Men

14.06.2026 ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Para Championships Tarragona

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 86/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 34 früheren Rennen und 1057 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 52.4 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 80.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 80.0 % · 34 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.6
Mean swim error49.4 s
Mean bike-speed error2.29 km/h
Correct bike groups3/10
No history0
Within the 80% range60.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Dave Ellis B3
GBR
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:05
16:36
 45:15
Show details
Prediction details: Dave Ellis B3

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:36 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Total: 45:15
2 / 3 Héctor Catalá Laparra B2
ESP
+49 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:54
17:03
 46:04
Show details
Prediction details: Héctor Catalá Laparra B2

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 25.3 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.4 s
Gap behind: 41.9 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:00 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Total: 46:04
3 / 7 Thibaut Rigaudeau B3
FRA
+30 s
+22 s
G1 / G4
 17:14
18:29
 46:24
Show details
Prediction details: Thibaut Rigaudeau B3

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:41
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 7.9 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.9 s
Gap behind: 19.4 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 46:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Total: 46:24
4 / 5 Oscar Kelly B3
GBR
+20 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:31
17:32
 46:41
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Kelly B3

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 46:41
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Total: 46:41
5 / 6 Andrey Bukov B2
RUS
+21 s
+2 s
G1 / G2
 18:28
18:41
 47:38
Show details
Prediction details: Andrey Bukov B2

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 19.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 8.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:41 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:38
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Total: 47:38
6 / 1 Lazar Filipovic B1
SRB
+91 s
+64 s
G2 / G3
 17:49
17:14
 47:58
Show details
Prediction details: Lazar Filipovic B1

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 11:42
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 27.2 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 41.9 s
Gap behind: 61.8 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 47:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:42 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:38 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Total: 47:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
7 / 4 Antoine Perel B1
FRA
+153 s
+93 s
G3 / G4
 17:31
18:15
 48:02
Show details
Prediction details: Antoine Perel B1

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +153 s
Time: 12:44
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +93 s
Fehler: 60.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 61.8 s
Gap behind: 28.9 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:44 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:29 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Total: 48:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
8 / 9 Donnacha Mc Carthy B1
IRL
+207 s
+201 s
G4 / G6
 18:02
20:46
 50:54
Show details
Prediction details: Donnacha Mc Carthy B1

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +207 s
Time: 13:38
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +201 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 24.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Error: −2:44 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 50:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:38 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:25 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 50:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
9 / 10 Wojciech Makowski B1
POL
+0 s
+168 s
G1 / G7
 48:30
25:21
 1:17:40
Show details
Prediction details: Wojciech Makowski B1

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +168 s
Fehler: -168.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 20.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 48:30 (9:42 / km)
Historical basis: 9:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 9:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:21 (5:04 / km)
Error: +23:09 / +4:38 / km
Overall prediction: 1:17:40
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:21 (41.9 km/h)
Run: 48:30 (9:42 / km)
Total: 1:17:40
0 / 8 Abel Torreblanca Lopez B3
ESP
+182 s
+4 s
G3 / G5
19:00
Show details
Prediction details: Abel Torreblanca Lopez B3

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +182 s
Time: 13:13
Pace: 1:46 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 177.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 28.9 s
Gap behind: 24.6 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 13:13 (1:46 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:29 (43.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.