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PTWC Men

14.06.2026 ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Para Championships Tarragona

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 83/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 34 früheren Rennen und 1057 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 52.4 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 75.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 34 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.0
Mean swim error50.3 s
Mean bike-speed error1.91 km/h
Correct bike groups1/7
No history1
Within the 80% range50.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Florian Brungraber H2
AUT
+34 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		11:20
12:36
 47:25
Show details
Prediction details: Florian Brungraber H2

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 11:36
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 34.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 33.1 s
Gap behind: 25.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 11:20 (2:16 / km)
Historical basis: 2:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:09 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:36 (2:31 / km)
Error: −1:16 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 47:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:36 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:45 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 11:20 (2:16 / km)
Total: 47:25
2 / 1 Thomas Fruehwirth H1
AUT
+81 s
+133 s
G1 / G2
 13:04
12:29
 49:09
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Fruehwirth H1

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 12:23
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +133 s
Fehler: -52.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.9 s
Gap behind: 27.6 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:04 (2:37 / km)
Historical basis: 2:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:29 (2:30 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 49:09
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:23 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:45 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 13:04 (2:37 / km)
Total: 49:09
3 / 4 Giuseppe Romele H1
ITA
+59 s
+20 s
G1 / G5
 13:18
14:30
 49:23
Show details
Prediction details: Giuseppe Romele H1

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 12:01
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 39.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:18 (2:40 / km)
Historical basis: 2:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:30 (2:54 / km)
Error: −1:12 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 49:23
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:01 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:45 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 13:18 (2:40 / km)
Total: 49:23
4 / 6 Joshua Landmann H2
GBR
+60 s
+80 s
G1 / G6
 13:48
13:34
 49:53
Show details
Prediction details: Joshua Landmann H2

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 12:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +80 s
Fehler: -20.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 20.9 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:48 (2:46 / km)
Historical basis: 2:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:29 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:34 (2:43 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 49:53
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:02 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:45 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 13:48 (2:46 / km)
Total: 49:53
5 / 5 Louis Noel H2
FRA
+1 s
+31 s
G1 / G3
 14:16
13:08
 50:21
Show details
Prediction details: Louis Noel H2

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -30.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 33.1 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:16 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.16 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:08 (2:38 / km)
Error: +1:08 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 50:21
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:45 (34.8 km/h)
Run: 14:16 (2:51 / km)
Total: 50:21
6 / 7 Semen Radaev H1
RUS
+108 s
+178 s
G2 / G7
 16:56
14:12
 1:00:06
Show details
Prediction details: Semen Radaev H1

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +108 s
Time: 12:50
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +178 s
Fehler: -69.7 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.22 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 27.6 s
Gap behind: 155.2 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:12 (2:50 / km)
Error: +2:44 / +0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:06
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:50 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 41:21 (29.0 km/h)
Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:00:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:39
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 71.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Joseph Fritsch H1
FRA
+0 s
+290 s
G0 / G4
13:43
Show details
Prediction details: Joseph Fritsch H1

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:02
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +290 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:43 (2:45 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Jan Froede H2
GER
+264 s
+370 s
G3 / G8
18:23
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Froede H2

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +264 s
Time: 15:26
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +370 s
Fehler: -106.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 26.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 155.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 15:26 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 44:35 (26.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 11:40
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
About 226.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.