Prediction comparison
25-29 Open AG
12.04.2026
Denkmalplatz
GER
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Powerman Middle Distance Duathlon Championships Alsdorf
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.04.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Add missing course distances
The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.
Prediction model used
Modell v14
calibrated
Prediction quality
30/100
sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Kalibriert mit 65 früheren Rennen und 1015 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 10.5 %.
Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 12.04.2026.
Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h
Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 65 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.3
Correct bike groups0/0
No history3
| Place Prediction / result |
Athlete | Swimming Prediction / result |
Bike group Prediction / result |
Run Prediction / result |
Overall prediction | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 / 1 |
Moris Brust
LUX
|
+392 s
|
G0 / G1
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +392 s
Time:
Pace:
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:29 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
||
| 0 / 2 |
Adam Dart
GBR
|
+0 s
|
G0 / G2
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:20 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
||
| 0 / 3 |
Florian Mürmannns
GER
|
+0 s
|
G0 / G3
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:03 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
||
| 0 / 4 |
Robbe Pletinckx
BEL
|
+0 s
|
G0 / G4
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:42 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
||
| 0 / 5 |
Quirin Ruland
GER
|
+0 s
|
G0 / G5
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:49 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
||
| 0 / 6 |
Alexander Hohl
GER
|
+0 s
|
G0 / G6
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:11 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|