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Elite Men

04.07.2026 NED
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Premium Cup Holten

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 04.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 92/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 35 früheren Rennen und 753 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.1 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 04.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 91.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 96.4 % · 35 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.6
Mean swim error11.1 s
Mean bike-speed error1.01 km/h
Correct bike groups30/55
No history1
Within the 80% range55.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 36 Bruno Krumbeck
GER
+25 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 14:38
16:32
 41:46
Show details
Prediction details: Bruno Krumbeck

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -35

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 2.07 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Error: −1:54 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 41:46
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Total: 41:46
2 / 6 Antoine Duval
FRA
+3 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:57
15:18
 42:05
Show details
Prediction details: Antoine Duval

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: -8.7 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:05
3 / 2 Hamish Reilly
GBR
+16 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:08
15:10
 42:16
Show details
Prediction details: Hamish Reilly

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–17
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 42:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Total: 42:16
4 / 26 Toby Powers
AUS
+27 s
+44 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:51
15:37
 42:19
Show details
Prediction details: Toby Powers

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–18
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -17.3 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 42:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Total: 42:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 20 Thibault Rivier
SUI
+32 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 14:53
16:02
 42:21
Show details
Prediction details: Thibault Rivier

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–17
Top-10 probability: 64 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 15.8 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 42:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 48 Leon Raeder
GER
+34 s
+50 s
G2 / G4
 14:56
16:26
 42:24
Show details
Prediction details: Leon Raeder

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–18
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -42

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -15.7 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Error: −1:30 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 42:24
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 9.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 25 Robbie White
NZL
+20 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:16
16:39
 42:24
Show details
Prediction details: Robbie White

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–16
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Error: −1:23 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 42:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Total: 42:24
8 / 4 Fynn Batkin
GBR
+33 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 14:57
15:16
 42:25
Show details
Prediction details: Fynn Batkin

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 2–29
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 25.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 8.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 19 Gjalt Panjer
NED
+26 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 15:00
16:10
 42:28
Show details
Prediction details: Gjalt Panjer

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–19
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 18.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur 0.98 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 42:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 42:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 0.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 3 Andrés Prieto Villar
ESP
+19 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:23
15:12
 42:31
Show details
Prediction details: Andrés Prieto Villar

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–22
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -0.5 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Total: 42:31
11 / 14 Raf De Dobbelaere
BEL
+30 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 15:04
15:47
 42:32
Show details
Prediction details: Raf De Dobbelaere

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–16
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 13.7 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 42:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 4.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 33 Fabian Schönke
GER
+47 s
+28 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:07
16:05
 42:35
Show details
Prediction details: Fabian Schönke

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–36
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 18.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 42:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 21.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 1 Milan Lariviere
FRA
+19 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:27
15:09
 42:35
Show details
Prediction details: Milan Lariviere

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 2–36
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 1.9 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Total: 42:35
14 / 18 Delian Stateff
ITA
+23 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:29
15:57
 42:37
Show details
Prediction details: Delian Stateff

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 4–35
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 8.7 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 42:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 42:37
15 / 15 Caleb Wagener
NZL
+17 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:32
15:59
 42:40
Show details
Prediction details: Caleb Wagener

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–24
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 2.11 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Total: 42:40
16 / 21 Antoine L'hôte
SUI
+33 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 15:15
16:27
 42:43
Show details
Prediction details: Antoine L'hôte

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 9–22
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 17.6 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 130 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:27 (3:17 / km)
Error: −1:12 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 42:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Total: 42:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 7.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 7 Andres Hilario Morales
ESP
+36 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 15:19
15:24
 42:47
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Hilario Morales

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 9–26
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 27.7 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Total: 42:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 10.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 17 Cis Huyghe
BEL
+40 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 15:31
15:56
 42:59
Show details
Prediction details: Cis Huyghe

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 11–35
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 19.1 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Total: 42:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 14.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 10 Jan Diener
GER
+19 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:53
15:43
 43:01
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Diener

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 16.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -1.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:53 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:53 (3:11 / km)
Total: 43:01
20 / 11 Deri McCluskey
GBR
+15 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:55
15:41
 43:03
Show details
Prediction details: Deri McCluskey

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 14–31
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:03
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Total: 43:03
21 / 9 Baptiste Passemard
FRA
+7 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:58
15:36
 43:06
Show details
Prediction details: Baptiste Passemard

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 2–41
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 2.2 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:06
22 / 27 Victor Goené
NED
+23 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:01
16:50
 43:09
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Goené

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 18–32
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 4.6 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 43:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:09
23 / 31 Adrien Gouilloud
FRA
+38 s
+46 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:42
15:46
 43:10
Show details
Prediction details: Adrien Gouilloud

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 16–40
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -7.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:10
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 13.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 13 Finnley Oliver
NZL
+23 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:02
15:41
 43:10
Show details
Prediction details: Finnley Oliver

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 20–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:10
25 / 39 Kacper Serwiński
POL
+47 s
+45 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:46
16:46
 43:14
Show details
Prediction details: Kacper Serwiński

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 16–50
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 43:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 21.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 5 Genis Grau
ESP
+25 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:06
15:18
 43:14
Show details
Prediction details: Genis Grau

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 15–37
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 7.6 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 43:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 43:14
27 / 38 Konrád Székely
HUN
+30 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:47
16:43
 43:15
Show details
Prediction details: Konrád Székely

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 15–33
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:56 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 43:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 29 Jasper Devos
BEL
+39 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:49
15:39
 43:17
Show details
Prediction details: Jasper Devos

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 20–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 13.0 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Total: 43:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 13.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 22 Jesse Cuijpers
NED
+14 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:09
16:24
 43:17
Show details
Prediction details: Jesse Cuijpers

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 20–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:17
30 / 16 Charlie Harding
GBR
+19 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:10
15:51
 43:18
Show details
Prediction details: Charlie Harding

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 20–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:18
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Total: 43:18
31 / 12 Niels Van Lanen
NED
+38 s
+24 s
G2 / G1
 16:01
15:44
 43:29
Show details
Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 20–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 169 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 166 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 13.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 42 Christopher Deegan
AUS
+14 s
+2 s
G1 / G3
 16:22
16:58
 43:30
Show details
Prediction details: Christopher Deegan

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 25–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Total: 43:30
33 / 35 Isaac Lamprecht
USA
+46 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:16
16:28
 43:44
Show details
Prediction details: Isaac Lamprecht

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 29–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 21.9 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Total: 43:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 20.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 28 Eduardo Blanco Mollá
ESP
+9 s
+7 s
G1 / G2
 16:38
15:38
 43:46
Show details
Prediction details: Eduardo Blanco Mollá

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 29–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 2.3 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 43:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Total: 43:46
35 / 24 Hugo Philippe
BEL
+42 s
+45 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:21
15:25
 43:49
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Philippe

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 19–49
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -3.1 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 78 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 43:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Total: 43:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 16.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 41 Quentin Pennone
SUI
+44 s
+43 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:25
17:10
 43:53
Show details
Prediction details: Quentin Pennone

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 31–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 1.3 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Total: 43:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 19.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 8 Carter Stuhlmacher
USA
+7 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:45
15:27
 43:53
Show details
Prediction details: Carter Stuhlmacher

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 11–48
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 29

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -1.20 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 43:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Total: 43:53
38 / 37 Bruno Haman
CZE
+24 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:53
17:45
 44:01
Show details
Prediction details: Bruno Haman

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 25–48
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 11.4 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:52 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 44:01
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 16:53 (3:23 / km)
Total: 44:01
39 / 45 Ilio Kopriva
BEL
+14 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:54
19:16
 44:02
Show details
Prediction details: Ilio Kopriva

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 15–47
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 12.7 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Error: −2:22 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 44:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Total: 44:02
40 / 23 Dorian Horsten
NED
+42 s
+20 s
G2 / G1
 16:40
16:25
 44:08
Show details
Prediction details: Dorian Horsten

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 31–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 21.6 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (27 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Total: 44:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 16.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 47 Severin Schwarz
SUI
+16 s
+11 s
G1 / G2
 17:12
18:16
 44:20
Show details
Prediction details: Severin Schwarz

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 27–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Error: −1:04 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 44:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Total: 44:20
42 / 52 Till Clijsen
SUI
+39 s
+59 s
G2 / G4
 17:13
17:12
 44:41
Show details
Prediction details: Till Clijsen

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 38–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -20.3 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Total: 44:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 13.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 32 Keran Gallou
FRA
+60 s
+44 s
G3 / G2
 15:23
15:44
 44:42
Show details
Prediction details: Keran Gallou

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 31–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 15.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:42
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:14 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Total: 44:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 34.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 46 Sem Lazaroms
NED
+31 s
+37 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:38
18:09
 45:06
Show details
Prediction details: Sem Lazaroms

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 41–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -5.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Total: 45:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 5.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 34 Rick Van der Knaap
NED
+55 s
+27 s
G3 / G2
 15:53
16:15
 45:12
Show details
Prediction details: Rick Van der Knaap

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 31–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 27.6 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:53 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:14 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 15:53 (3:11 / km)
Total: 45:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 29.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 30 Siwar Kool
NED
+52 s
+35 s
G3 / G2
 15:57
15:41
 45:16
Show details
Prediction details: Siwar Kool

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 24–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 17.3 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:14 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Total: 45:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 27.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 55 Stijn Jansen
NED
+35 s
+36 s
G2 / G3
 17:58
19:59
 45:26
Show details
Prediction details: Stijn Jansen

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 44–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 55
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (4:00 / km)
Error: −2:01 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 45:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Total: 45:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 9.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 49 Niklas Ararz Villà Páramo
PAN
+45 s
+53 s
G2 / G4
 18:01
16:43
 45:29
Show details
Prediction details: Niklas Ararz Villà Páramo

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 47–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -8.3 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 65 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 (3:21 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 45:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: 45:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 19.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 51 Lars Van Zessen
NED
+47 s
+41 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:08
19:04
 45:36
Show details
Prediction details: Lars Van Zessen

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 46–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (24 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:04 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:56 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 45:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:41 (45.0 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 45:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 21.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 53 Wybe Vermeulen
NED
+64 s
+57 s
G3 / G4
 16:41
17:35
 46:00
Show details
Prediction details: Wybe Vermeulen

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 44–53
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 53
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 7.2 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: 9.5 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 46:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:14 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Total: 46:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 39 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 40 Tymon Horsten
POL
+51 s
+35 s
G3 / G2
 16:50
16:55
 46:09
Show details
Prediction details: Tymon Horsten

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 33–52
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 40
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 16.2 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:32 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:14 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Total: 46:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 26 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 54 Roel Kwaaitaal
NED
+58 s
+59 s
G3 / G4
 18:26
18:02
 47:45
Show details
Prediction details: Roel Kwaaitaal

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 45–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 54
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -1.5 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 47:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:14 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Total: 47:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 32.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 50 Pim Bakker
NED
+74 s
+73 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:06
16:41
 48:43
Show details
Prediction details: Pim Bakker

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 52–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: 0.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 90 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 9.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -1.19 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Error: +1:25 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 48:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:23 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Total: 48:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 48.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 44 Daryn Konysbayev
KAZ
+53 s
+39 s
G3 / G4
 19:48
15:44
 49:07
Show details
Prediction details: Daryn Konysbayev

Placement

Prediction: 54
80% range: 53–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 14.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 4 (7 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:48 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -1.08 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Error: +4:04 / +0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 49:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:14 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 19:48 (3:58 / km)
Total: 49:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 27.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 43 Samuel Möller
GER
+16 s
+7 s
G1 / G2
17:45
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel Möller

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -43

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 9.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (23 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:43 (44.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 56 Oscar Espinosa Cebrian
ESP
+0 s
+67 s
G0 / G5
18:07
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Espinosa Cebrian

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 56–56
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 56
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 8:41 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.