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Elite Men

31.07.2026 POL
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Sprint and Relay Championships Elblag

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 31.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 87/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 23 früheren Rennen und 656 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 23 Kalibrierungsrennen

Rank Athlete Swimming Bike group Run Total Details
1 Arnaud Mengal
BEL
 +34 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 14:30
2:54 / km
 41:41
Show details
Prediction details: Arnaud Mengal

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s

Running and total

Run: 14:30 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 41:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 14:30 (2:54 / km)
Total: 41:41
2 Sergio Baxter Cabrera
ESP
 +31 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 14:35
2:55 / km
 41:46
Show details
Prediction details: Sergio Baxter Cabrera

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s

Running and total

Run: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Overall prediction: 41:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Total: 41:46
3 Simon Westermann
SUI
 +18 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 14:51
2:58 / km
 42:02
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Westermann

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s

Running and total

Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 42:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Total: 42:02
4 Alessio Crociani
ITA
 +1 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 14:57
2:59 / km
 42:08
Show details
Prediction details: Alessio Crociani

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.8 s

Running and total

Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Overall prediction: 42:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:41 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:08
5 Maxime Fluri
SUI
 +33 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 15:01
3:00 / km
 42:12
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Fluri

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–16
Top-10 probability: 53 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s

Running and total

Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Overall prediction: 42:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 42:12
6 Gergő Dobi
HUN
 +23 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 15:06
3:01 / km
 42:17
Show details
Prediction details: Gergő Dobi

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 96 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s

Running and total

Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 42:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Total: 42:17
7 Michał Oliwa
POL
 +23 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 15:11
3:02 / km
 42:22
Show details
Prediction details: Michał Oliwa

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s

Running and total

Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 42:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Total: 42:22
8 Valentin Wernz
GER
 +27 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 15:16
3:03 / km
 42:27
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Wernz

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 81 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s

Running and total

Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 42:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Total: 42:27
9 Sebastian Wernersen
NOR
 +22 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 15:20
3:04 / km
 42:31
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Wernersen

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s

Running and total

Run: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 42:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Total: 42:31
10 Benedikt Bettin
GER
 +29 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 15:27
3:05 / km
 42:38
Show details
Prediction details: Benedikt Bettin

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 3–17
Top-10 probability: 51 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 42:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Total: 42:38
11 Petter Ellingsbø
NOR
 +28 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 15:41
3:08 / km
 42:52
Show details
Prediction details: Petter Ellingsbø

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–15
Top-10 probability: 36 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s

Running and total

Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Overall prediction: 42:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Total: 42:52
12 Joris Basslé
BEL
 +17 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 15:49
3:10 / km
 43:00
Show details
Prediction details: Joris Basslé

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 33 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.2 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s

Running and total

Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Total: 43:00
13 Maciej Bruzdziak
POL
 +9 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 15:58
3:12 / km
 43:09
Show details
Prediction details: Maciej Bruzdziak

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 9–13
Top-10 probability: 35 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.8 s
Gap behind: 8.2 s

Running and total

Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Overall prediction: 43:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Total: 43:09
14 Mikita Katsianeu
BLR
 +36 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 16:13
3:15 / km
 43:24
Show details
Prediction details: Mikita Katsianeu

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 10–22
Top-10 probability: 11 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s

Running and total

Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:26 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Overall prediction: 43:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Total: 43:24
15 Victor Goené
NED
 +23 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 16:42
3:20 / km
 43:53
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Goené

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 14–18
Top-10 probability: 1 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 95 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s

Running and total

Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 127 Duelle, Korrektur -0.84 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Overall prediction: 43:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Total: 43:53
16 Veikka Saren
FIN
 +41 s Gruppe 2
3 Personen
 15:30
3:06 / km
 44:08
Show details
Prediction details: Veikka Saren

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 9–20
Top-10 probability: 23 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s

Running and total

Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:53 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 29.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 Radim Grebík
CZE
 +37 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 17:12
3:26 / km
 44:23
Show details
Prediction details: Radim Grebík

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–22
Top-10 probability: 3 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s

Running and total

Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Overall prediction: 44:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Total: 44:23
18 Peter Rojtas
SVK
 +42 s Gruppe 2
3 Personen
 16:17
3:15 / km
 44:55
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Rojtas

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–21
Top-10 probability: 1 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s

Running and total

Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Overall prediction: 44:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:53 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Total: 44:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 30.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 Jan Bader
AUT
 +44 s Gruppe 2
3 Personen
 16:19
3:16 / km
 44:57
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Bader

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 13–21
Top-10 probability: 3 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.89 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 43.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s

Running and total

Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Overall prediction: 44:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:53 (43.0 km/h)
Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Total: 44:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 32.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 Itamar Levanon
ISR
 +49 s Gruppe 3
1 Personen
 15:47
3:09 / km
 45:17
Show details
Prediction details: Itamar Levanon

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 14–21
Top-10 probability: 1 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 10.0 s

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:41 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 45:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 37.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 Artjoms Gajevskis
LAT
 +37 s Gruppe 1
17 Personen
 18:08
3:38 / km
 45:19
Show details
Prediction details: Artjoms Gajevskis

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 21–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (17 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -1.52 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Overall prediction: 45:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:35 (45.3 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 45:19
22 Vitalii Vorontsov
UKR
 +59 s Gruppe 4
2 Personen
 15:26
3:05 / km
 46:27
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Prediction details: Vitalii Vorontsov

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 12–21
Top-10 probability: 8 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.0 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s

Running and total

Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 109 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 46:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:59 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Total: 46:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 47.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 Sergey Kostenko
UKR
 +62 s Gruppe 4
2 Personen
 16:49
3:22 / km
 47:50
Show details
Prediction details: Sergey Kostenko

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: –

Running and total

Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Overall prediction: 47:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:59 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Total: 47:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
About 49.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.