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Race prediction

Junior Men

31.07.2026 POL
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Europe Triathlon Sprint and Relay Championships Elblag

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 31.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 76/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 23 früheren Rennen und 656 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 48.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 77.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 23 Kalibrierungsrennen

Rank Athlete Swimming Bike group Run Total Details
1 Fedir Bezlepkin
UKR
 +35 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 13:24
2:41 / km
 41:37
Show details
Prediction details: Fedir Bezlepkin

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s

Running and total

Run: 13:24 (2:41 / km)
Historical basis: 2:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 41:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 13:24 (2:41 / km)
Total: 41:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 29 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 Marat Veratsennikau
BLR
 +40 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 13:50
2:46 / km
 42:03
Show details
Prediction details: Marat Veratsennikau

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 93 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s

Running and total

Run: 13:50 (2:46 / km)
Historical basis: 2:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 1.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 42:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 13:50 (2:46 / km)
Total: 42:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
3 Henry Haag
GER
 +3 s Gruppe 1
1 Personen
 14:45
2:57 / km
 42:24
Show details
Prediction details: Henry Haag

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 43.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.1 s

Running and total

Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Overall prediction: 42:24
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.5 km/h)
Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Total: 42:24
4 Thibault Rivier
SUI
 +22 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 14:50
2:58 / km
 43:03
Show details
Prediction details: Thibault Rivier

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 93 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s

Running and total

Run: 14:50 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 14:50 (2:58 / km)
Total: 43:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 16.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 Sebastian Ziekman
LUX
 +26 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 14:56
2:59 / km
 43:09
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Ziekman

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s

Running and total

Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Total: 43:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 23.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 Leni Remer-Mancini
FRA
 +23 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:07
3:01 / km
 43:20
Show details
Prediction details: Leni Remer-Mancini

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 66 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s

Running and total

Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Overall prediction: 43:20
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 16.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 Dominik Ivančík
SVK
 +26 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:17
3:03 / km
 43:30
Show details
Prediction details: Dominik Ivančík

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–16
Top-10 probability: 59 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s

Running and total

Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 19.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 Antonin Mathieu
FRA
 +35 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:19
3:04 / km
 43:32
Show details
Prediction details: Antonin Mathieu

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–28
Top-10 probability: 40 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s

Running and total

Run: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 96 %
Overall prediction: 43:32
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 29 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 Jelle Kaindl
AUT
 +27 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:21
3:04 / km
 43:34
Show details
Prediction details: Jelle Kaindl

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–23
Top-10 probability: 44 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 21.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 Albert Håkansson
SUI
 +31 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:21
3:04 / km
 43:34
Show details
Prediction details: Albert Håkansson

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 33 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:34
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 25.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 Gabin Yonnet
FRA
 +6 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:22
3:04 / km
 43:35
Show details
Prediction details: Gabin Yonnet

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 54 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s

Running and total

Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Overall prediction: 43:35
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 0.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 Giuseppe Basta
ITA
 +38 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:30
3:06 / km
 43:43
Show details
Prediction details: Giuseppe Basta

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 12–27
Top-10 probability: 3 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s

Running and total

Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:43
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 32.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 András Szűcs
HUN
 +19 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:31
3:06 / km
 43:44
Show details
Prediction details: András Szűcs

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 19 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s

Running and total

Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 13.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 Achille Alessandri
ITA
 +32 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:35
3:07 / km
 43:48
Show details
Prediction details: Achille Alessandri

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 13–26
Top-10 probability: 5 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 26.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 Isaak Etxezarreta Arrizabalaga
LTU
 +65 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 14:58
3:00 / km
 43:51
Show details
Prediction details: Isaak Etxezarreta Arrizabalaga

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–63
Top-10 probability: 9 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s

Running and total

Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.80 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:51
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 58.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 Jan Chmielewski
POL
 +27 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:43
3:09 / km
 43:56
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Chmielewski

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–23
Top-10 probability: 1 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s

Running and total

Run: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 21 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 Lucas Riola Delgado
ESP
 +47 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 15:04
3:01 / km
 43:57
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Riola Delgado

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 3–45
Top-10 probability: 48 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s

Running and total

Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:33 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 43:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 41.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 Raphael Schweiger
AUT
 +33 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:47
3:09 / km
 44:00
Show details
Prediction details: Raphael Schweiger

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 4–48
Top-10 probability: 26 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:36 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 26.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 Lucas García Picón
ESP
 +44 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 15:17
3:03 / km
 44:10
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas García Picón

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 7–38
Top-10 probability: 20 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -1.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s

Running and total

Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Total: 44:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 38.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 Kristupas Jančius
LTU
 +53 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 15:18
3:04 / km
 44:11
Show details
Prediction details: Kristupas Jančius

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 14–45
Top-10 probability: 4 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s

Running and total

Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 1.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:11
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Total: 44:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 47 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 Nik Vučko
SLO
 +35 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 15:58
3:12 / km
 44:11
Show details
Prediction details: Nik Vučko

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 19–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s

Running and total

Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 29.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 Arthur Baigidin
AIN
 +9 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:00
3:12 / km
 44:13
Show details
Prediction details: Arthur Baigidin

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 16–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s

Running and total

Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:13
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
23 Andrin Gallert
SUI
 +15 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:08
3:14 / km
 44:21
Show details
Prediction details: Andrin Gallert

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s

Running and total

Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:21
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Total: 44:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 9.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 Lucas Gorrill
GBR
 +20 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:08
3:14 / km
 44:21
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Gorrill

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 19–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s

Running and total

Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:21
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Total: 44:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 14.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 Christian Ache
GER
 +52 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 15:29
3:06 / km
 44:22
Show details
Prediction details: Christian Ache

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 7–49
Top-10 probability: 23 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -1.25 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Overall prediction: 44:22
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 45.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 Alexandru-Rares Popa
ROU
 +33 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:10
3:14 / km
 44:23
Show details
Prediction details: Alexandru-Rares Popa

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 20–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s

Running and total

Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Overall prediction: 44:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Total: 44:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 27.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 Dinis Ferreira
POR
 +56 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 15:41
3:08 / km
 44:34
Show details
Prediction details: Dinis Ferreira

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 14–63
Top-10 probability: 6 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s

Running and total

Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:34
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 50.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 Ruben Espuna Larramona
ITA
 +35 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:22
3:16 / km
 44:35
Show details
Prediction details: Ruben Espuna Larramona

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 13–52
Top-10 probability: 6 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s

Running and total

Run: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Total: 44:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 28.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 Gustav Karl Metspalu
EST
 +26 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:23
3:17 / km
 44:36
Show details
Prediction details: Gustav Karl Metspalu

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 26–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s

Running and total

Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:36
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Total: 44:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 20.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 Matěj Procházka
CZE
 +25 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:24
3:17 / km
 44:37
Show details
Prediction details: Matěj Procházka

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 18–47
Top-10 probability: 1 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s

Running and total

Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:24 (3:17 / km)
Total: 44:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 18.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 Mats Decoene
BEL
 +27 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:25
3:17 / km
 44:38
Show details
Prediction details: Mats Decoene

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 13–53
Top-10 probability: 6 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s

Running and total

Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Total: 44:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 Emile Vanolst
LUX
 +50 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 15:47
3:09 / km
 44:40
Show details
Prediction details: Emile Vanolst

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 20–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:40
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 43.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 Sebestyén Pál Kendeh-Kirchknopf
HUN
 +9 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:27
3:17 / km
 44:40
Show details
Prediction details: Sebestyén Pál Kendeh-Kirchknopf

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 16–45
Top-10 probability: 4 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
H2H: 57 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s

Running and total

Run: 16:27 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:27 (3:17 / km)
Total: 44:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 Jakub Marik
CZE
 +61 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 15:49
3:10 / km
 44:42
Show details
Prediction details: Jakub Marik

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 27–57
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s

Running and total

Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 55.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 Artur Gaspar
POR
 +24 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:31
3:18 / km
 44:44
Show details
Prediction details: Artur Gaspar

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 27–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s

Running and total

Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:44
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Total: 44:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 18.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 Aleksei Petrovskii
AIN
 +65 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 15:52
3:10 / km
 44:45
Show details
Prediction details: Aleksei Petrovskii

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 31–61
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s

Running and total

Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Overall prediction: 44:45
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 58.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 Jules Chabanel
FRA
 +27 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:34
3:19 / km
 44:47
Show details
Prediction details: Jules Chabanel

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 28–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 90 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s

Running and total

Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Overall prediction: 44:47
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Total: 44:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 21.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 Rube Claus
BEL
 +57 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 15:59
3:12 / km
 44:52
Show details
Prediction details: Rube Claus

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 28–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s

Running and total

Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:52
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 54.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 Adam Dąbrowski
POL
 +19 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:39
3:20 / km
 44:52
Show details
Prediction details: Adam Dąbrowski

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 17–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s

Running and total

Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 92 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Total: 44:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 13 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 Moritz Hägel
GER
 +39 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:41
3:20 / km
 44:54
Show details
Prediction details: Moritz Hägel

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 14–58
Top-10 probability: 8 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 94 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s

Running and total

Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -1.35 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Overall prediction: 44:54
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Total: 44:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 33.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 Jayden Levy Silva
ISR
 +10 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:46
3:21 / km
 44:59
Show details
Prediction details: Jayden Levy Silva

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 6–58
Top-10 probability: 23 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s

Running and total

Run: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 44:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Total: 44:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 Runar De Meulenaere
BEL
 +15 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:47
3:21 / km
 45:00
Show details
Prediction details: Runar De Meulenaere

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 29–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Total: 45:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 8.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 Omer Peer
ISR
 +54 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 16:09
3:14 / km
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Omer Peer

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 27–66
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s

Running and total

Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Total: 45:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 48.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 Tom Mythen
GBR
 +44 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 16:10
3:14 / km
 45:03
Show details
Prediction details: Tom Mythen

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 26–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.90 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s

Running and total

Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:03
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Total: 45:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 38.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 Maks Mori
SLO
 +46 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 16:12
3:14 / km
 45:05
Show details
Prediction details: Maks Mori

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 28–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s

Running and total

Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Total: 45:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 40.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 Ricardo Pissarra
POR
 +20 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:56
3:23 / km
 45:09
Show details
Prediction details: Ricardo Pissarra

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 36–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s

Running and total

Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Total: 45:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 14 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 Seymur Anthony Caglayan
TUR
 +54 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 16:17
3:15 / km
 45:10
Show details
Prediction details: Seymur Anthony Caglayan

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 34–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s

Running and total

Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Overall prediction: 45:10
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Total: 45:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
48 Xavi Cabanilles Añó
ESP
 +36 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 16:57
3:23 / km
 45:10
Show details
Prediction details: Xavi Cabanilles Añó

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 38–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s

Running and total

Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Total: 45:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
49 Alex Mandak
SVK
 +50 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 16:23
3:17 / km
 45:16
Show details
Prediction details: Alex Mandak

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 33–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s

Running and total

Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Total: 45:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 44.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 Zsombor Holba
HUN
 +31 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 17:03
3:25 / km
 45:16
Show details
Prediction details: Zsombor Holba

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 31–57
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s

Running and total

Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur -1.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Total: 45:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 24.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 Kacper Serwiński
POL
 +48 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 16:29
3:18 / km
 45:22
Show details
Prediction details: Kacper Serwiński

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 16–58
Top-10 probability: 9 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -1.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 41.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 Charel Schiltz
LUX
 +49 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 16:29
3:18 / km
 45:22
Show details
Prediction details: Charel Schiltz

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 35–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:22
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 42.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 Victor Mauersperger
AUT
 +54 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 16:35
3:19 / km
 45:28
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Mauersperger

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 35–56
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s

Running and total

Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Total: 45:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 47.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 Gilles Vanhaelen
BEL
 +50 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 16:39
3:20 / km
 45:32
Show details
Prediction details: Gilles Vanhaelen

Placement

Prediction: 54
80% range: 19–64
Top-10 probability: 6 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s

Running and total

Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Total: 45:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 44.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 Gustavs Vīksne
LAT
 +60 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 16:44
3:21 / km
 45:37
Show details
Prediction details: Gustavs Vīksne

Placement

Prediction: 55
80% range: 42–69
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s

Running and total

Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Overall prediction: 45:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Total: 45:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 54.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 Francisco Carvalho
POR
 +31 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 17:27
3:29 / km
 45:40
Show details
Prediction details: Francisco Carvalho

Placement

Prediction: 56
80% range: 49–57
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s

Running and total

Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Total: 45:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 25 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 August Juul-Andersen
DEN
 +31 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 17:33
3:31 / km
 45:46
Show details
Prediction details: August Juul-Andersen

Placement

Prediction: 57
80% range: 48–58
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s

Running and total

Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:46
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Total: 45:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 24.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 Dorukalp Azizoğlu
TUR
 +43 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 17:01
3:24 / km
 45:54
Show details
Prediction details: Dorukalp Azizoğlu

Placement

Prediction: 58
80% range: 42–57
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 45:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Total: 45:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 37.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
59 Pearse Gallagher
IRL
 +64 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 17:38
3:32 / km
 46:31
Show details
Prediction details: Pearse Gallagher

Placement

Prediction: 59
80% range: 57–68
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s

Running and total

Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.73 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Overall prediction: 46:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Total: 46:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 58.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
60 Zaкhar Tsivkovskyi
UKR
 +41 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 18:21
3:40 / km
 46:34
Show details
Prediction details: Zaкhar Tsivkovskyi

Placement

Prediction: 60
80% range: 48–67
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s

Running and total

Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -1.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 46:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Total: 46:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 34.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
61 Oliver Dyrholm Pilegaard
DEN
 +34 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 18:24
3:41 / km
 46:37
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Dyrholm Pilegaard

Placement

Prediction: 61
80% range: 56–63
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s

Running and total

Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 46:37
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Total: 46:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 28 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
62 Kalmer Kiiver
EST
 +46 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 17:45
3:33 / km
 46:38
Show details
Prediction details: Kalmer Kiiver

Placement

Prediction: 62
80% range: 52–67
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s

Running and total

Run: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -1.81 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Overall prediction: 46:38
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Total: 46:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 40.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
63 Artur Abras
EST
 +59 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 17:55
3:35 / km
 46:48
Show details
Prediction details: Artur Abras

Placement

Prediction: 63
80% range: 49–69
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s

Running and total

Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 46:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Total: 46:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 52.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
64 Reuben Wadey
GBR
 +30 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 18:37
3:43 / km
 46:50
Show details
Prediction details: Reuben Wadey

Placement

Prediction: 64
80% range: 58–64
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s

Running and total

Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 46:50
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Total: 46:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 24 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
65 Eduard Matak
SVK
 +61 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 18:01
3:36 / km
 46:54
Show details
Prediction details: Eduard Matak

Placement

Prediction: 65
80% range: 60–68
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s

Running and total

Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 46:54
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: 46:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 55.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
66 Leo Kervinen
FIN
 +52 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 18:32
3:42 / km
 47:25
Show details
Prediction details: Leo Kervinen

Placement

Prediction: 66
80% range: 61–66
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s

Running and total

Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 47:25
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Total: 47:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 46.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
67 Algimantas Smolskas
LTU
 +24 s Gruppe 2
40 Personen
 19:34
3:55 / km
 47:47
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Prediction details: Algimantas Smolskas

Placement

Prediction: 67
80% range: 63–68
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s

Running and total

Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 47:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:32 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Total: 47:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 17.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
68 Matěj Homola
CZE
 +66 s Gruppe 4
1 Personen
 16:26
3:17 / km
 48:38
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Prediction details: Matěj Homola

Placement

Prediction: 68
80% range: 49–67
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 10.0 s

Running and total

Run: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Overall prediction: 48:38
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:05 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Total: 48:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 60.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
69 Filip Kniz
SVK
 +76 s Gruppe 5
1 Personen
 17:14
3:27 / km
 49:44
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Prediction details: Filip Kniz

Placement

Prediction: 69
80% range: 63–69
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.0 s
Gap behind: –

Running and total

Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Overall prediction: 49:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:13 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 17:14 (3:27 / km)
Total: 49:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 70.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
70 Everts Pikšēns
LAT
 +47 s Gruppe 3
27 Personen
 21:47
4:21 / km
 50:40
Show details
Prediction details: Everts Pikšēns

Placement

Prediction: 70
80% range: 69–70
Top-10 probability: 0 %

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (27 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s

Running and total

Run: 21:47 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -1.14 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Overall prediction: 50:40
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:48 (43.2 km/h)
Run: 21:47 (4:21 / km)
Total: 50:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 40.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.