Prediction comparison

Elite Men

31.05.2026 Stein NED

Race information and calculation basis

2026 NED Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 31.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 84/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 75 früheren Rennen und 2190 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 31.05.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 68.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 84.0 % · 75 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.0

Mean swim error16.8 s

Mean bike-speed error1.70 km/h

Correct bike groups10/22

No history3

Within the 80% range36.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Gjalt Panjer NED	+15 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:14 15:13	43:11	Show details Prediction details: Gjalt Panjer Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 14.5 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 40 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 83 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.5 s Gap behind: 6.8 s Result: Group 1 (4 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.66 km/h Running and total Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.84 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:13 (3:03 / km) Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km Overall prediction: 43:11 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:23 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km) Total: 43:11
2 / 4	Jesse Cuijpers NED	+10 s +4 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:54 16:33	43:51	Show details Prediction details: Jesse Cuijpers Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 6.0 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 83 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.0 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 1 (4 people) Speed: 42.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.61 km/h Running and total Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 92 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:19 / km) Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 43:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:23 (43.8 km/h) Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km) Total: 43:51
3 / 2	Niels Van Lanen NED	+29 s +23 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:03 15:45	44:00	Show details Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 9:36 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +23 s Fehler: 5.8 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 58 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.3 s Gap behind: 4.4 s Result: Group 1 (4 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.14 km/h Running and total Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:01 / km Comparable races: 10 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:45 (3:09 / km) Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 44:00 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:23 (43.8 km/h) Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km) Total: 44:00
4 / 3	Dorian Horsten NED	+33 s +16 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:06 16:11	44:03	Show details Prediction details: Dorian Horsten Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–9 Top-10 probability: 96 % Result: 3 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +33 s Time: 9:40 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: 17.2 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 45 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.4 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 1 (4 people) Speed: 42.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h Running and total Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 44:03 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:23 (43.8 km/h) Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km) Total: 44:03
5 / 9	Hugo Jan Bosscher NED	+14 s +16 s	G1 / G2	17:23 16:44	45:20	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Jan Bosscher Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–12 Top-10 probability: 63 % Result: 9 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +16 s Fehler: -2.0 s H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 39 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 63 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 0.5 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.25 km/h Running and total Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km) Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km Overall prediction: 45:20 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:23 (43.8 km/h) Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km) Total: 45:20
6 / 15	Sem Lazaroms NED	+10 s +29 s	G1 / G2	17:30 17:14	45:27	Show details Prediction details: Sem Lazaroms Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 6–12 Top-10 probability: 55 % Result: 15 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 9:17 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +29 s Fehler: -18.7 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 68 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 65 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.05 km/h Running and total Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 8 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 63 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:14 (3:27 / km) Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 45:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:23 (43.8 km/h) Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km) Total: 45:27
7 / 6	Rick Van der Knaap NED	+47 s +25 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:52 15:55	45:37	Show details Prediction details: Rick Van der Knaap Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 3–11 Top-10 probability: 88 % Result: 6 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: 9:54 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +25 s Fehler: 22.4 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 10 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.1 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 40.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.95 km/h Running and total Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 94 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:11 / km) Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km Overall prediction: 45:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.6 km/h) Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km) Total: 45:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:43 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 10.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 5	Siwar Kool NED	+49 s +33 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:55 15:44	45:40	Show details Prediction details: Siwar Kool Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 5–10 Top-10 probability: 93 % Result: 5 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 9:56 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +33 s Fehler: 15.6 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 95 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 0.9 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.86 km/h Running and total Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 97 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (3:09 / km) Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 45:40 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.6 km/h) Run: 15:55 (3:11 / km) Total: 45:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:44 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 12.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 17	Stijn Jansen NED	+34 s +32 s	G1 / G3	17:57 16:50	45:54	Show details Prediction details: Stijn Jansen Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 10–15 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 17 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 9:41 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: 1.6 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 46 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 9.7 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 40.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.57 km/h Running and total Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:38 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 66 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km) Error: +1:07 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 45:54 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:23 (43.8 km/h) Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km) Total: 45:54
10 / 7	Mats Keulstra NED	+54 s +43 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:13 15:58	45:58	Show details Prediction details: Mats Keulstra Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 5–13 Top-10 probability: 75 % Result: 7 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 10:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: 10.6 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 74 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 40.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h Running and total Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 64 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km) Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 45:58 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.6 km/h) Run: 16:13 (3:15 / km) Total: 45:58 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:44 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 17.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10	Jeroen Velders NED	+43 s +58 s	G2 / G3	16:20 16:34	46:05	Show details Prediction details: Jeroen Velders Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 6–12 Top-10 probability: 78 % Result: 10 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 9:50 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: -14.7 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 73 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.7 s Gap behind: 4.1 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h Running and total Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 60 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km) Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 46:05 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.6 km/h) Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km) Total: 46:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:43 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 6.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 23	Wybe Vermeulen NED	+56 s +57 s	G2 / G4	16:42 16:42	46:27	Show details Prediction details: Wybe Vermeulen Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 9–16 Top-10 probability: 28 % Result: 23 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +56 s Time: 10:03 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: -1.2 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 99 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 2.5 s Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.96 km/h Running and total Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 90 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:42 (3:20 / km) Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km Overall prediction: 46:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.6 km/h) Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km) Total: 46:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:44 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 19.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 19	Stijn Koole NED	+21 s +7 s	G1 / G2	18:39 17:25	46:36	Show details Prediction details: Stijn Koole Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 13–18 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 19 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: 9:28 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +7 s Fehler: 14.3 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 79 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 56 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.8 s Gap behind: 6.2 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.46 km/h Running and total Run: 18:39 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 74 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km) Error: +1:14 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 46:36 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:23 (43.8 km/h) Run: 18:39 (3:44 / km) Total: 46:36
14 / 11	Lucas Goené NED	+28 s +21 s	G1 / G2	18:52 17:11	46:49	Show details Prediction details: Lucas Goené Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 15–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 6.5 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 70 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 45 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.2 s Gap behind: 1.3 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.25 km/h Running and total Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 58 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:26 / km) Error: +1:41 / +0:20 / km Overall prediction: 46:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:23 (43.8 km/h) Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km) Total: 46:49
15 / 20	Timo Van der Weijden NED	+71 s +58 s	G3 / G3 correct	16:30 16:59	47:34	Show details Prediction details: Timo Van der Weijden Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 12–17 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 20 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: 10:18 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: 13.2 s H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 62 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.0 s Gap behind: 19.8 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h Running and total Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:16 / km Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 1.14 %, Sicherheit 57 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km) Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: 47:34 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:33 (40.3 km/h) Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km) Total: 47:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:43 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 34.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 25	Joran Stobbe NED	+51 s +52 s	G2 / G4	18:03 16:56	47:48	Show details Prediction details: Joran Stobbe Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 13–20 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 25 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +51 s Time: 9:58 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: -1.3 s H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 91 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 19 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.96 km/h Running and total Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km) Historical basis: 3:39 / km Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.99 %, Sicherheit 77 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km) Error: +1:07 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 47:48 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.6 km/h) Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km) Total: 47:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:44 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 14.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 22	Jasper Van der Velde NED	+91 s +119 s	G3 / G4	16:57 16:47	48:01	Show details Prediction details: Jasper Van der Velde Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 15–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 22 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +91 s Time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +119 s Fehler: -28.0 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 19.8 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 41.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.90 km/h Running and total Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 28 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (3:21 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 48:01 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:33 (40.3 km/h) Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km) Total: 48:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:44 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 54.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 16	Roel Kwaaitaal NED	+55 s +40 s	G2 / G3	18:23 16:50	48:08	Show details Prediction details: Roel Kwaaitaal Placement Prediction: 18 80% range: 12–22 Top-10 probability: 6 % Result: 16 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: 14.8 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 72 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.2 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.02 km/h Running and total Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 61 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km) Error: +1:33 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 48:08 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.6 km/h) Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km) Total: 48:08 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:44 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 18.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 18	Alessandro Colucci ITA	+58 s +32 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:45 17:28	48:30	Show details Prediction details: Alessandro Colucci Placement Prediction: 19 80% range: 18–21 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 10:05 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: 26.3 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.5 s Gap behind: 1.9 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 41.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h Running and total Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:28 (3:30 / km) Error: +1:17 / +0:15 / km Overall prediction: 48:30 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.6 km/h) Run: 18:45 (3:45 / km) Total: 48:30 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:43 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 21.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 12	Jesper Boets NED	+60 s +46 s	G2 / G3	19:04 16:48	48:49	Show details Prediction details: Jesper Boets Placement Prediction: 20 80% range: 19–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: 8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 10:07 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: 14.2 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 51 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.9 s Gap behind: 11.0 s Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 40.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.92 km/h Running and total Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -1.09 %, Sicherheit 47 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:48 (3:22 / km) Error: +2:16 / +0:27 / km Overall prediction: 48:49 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.6 km/h) Run: 19:04 (3:49 / km) Total: 48:49 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:43 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 23.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 8	Olaf Jan Bosscher NED	+50 s +27 s	G2 / G2 correct	19:16 16:43	49:01	Show details Prediction details: Olaf Jan Bosscher Placement Prediction: 21 80% range: 19–22 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: 13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 9:57 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 22.5 s H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 54 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 41.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.9 s Gap behind: 1.2 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 40.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.81 km/h Running and total Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 38 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Error: +2:33 / +0:31 / km Overall prediction: 49:01 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.6 km/h) Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km) Total: 49:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:44 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m About 13 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13	Wesley Mols NED	+0 s +99 s	G1 / G5	15:43		Show details Prediction details: Wesley Mols Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +99 s Fehler: -99.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (10 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 43.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 10.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 40.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.21 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 27:23 (43.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 14	Robbie Kerremans NED	+0 s +120 s	G0 / G4	15:56		Show details Prediction details: Robbie Kerremans Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 23–23 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +120 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 41.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21	Rens De Ridder NED	+0 s +70 s	G0 / G3	17:17		Show details Prediction details: Rens De Ridder Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 24–24 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 21 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +70 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 41.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 24	Vincent Uytdenwilligen BEL	+0 s +88 s	G0 / G3	17:38		Show details Prediction details: Vincent Uytdenwilligen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 25–25 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 24 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +88 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (7 people) Speed: 41.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:38 (3:32 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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