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Elite Men

20.06.2026 Rotterdam NED
Race information and calculation basis
2026 NED Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 20.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 56/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 13 früheren Rennen und 341 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 06.06.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 52.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 96.0 % · 13 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.5
Mean swim error27.0 s
Mean bike-speed error0.87 km/h
Correct bike groups8/24
No history1
Within the 80% range44.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Jesse Cuijpers
NED
+6 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		31:36
33:42
 1:28:39
Show details
Prediction details: Jesse Cuijpers

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 18:07
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: -0.6 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 14.8 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:36 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:42 (3:22 / km)
Error: −2:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:07 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:57 (42.1 km/h)
Run: 31:36 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:28:39
2 / 12 Stijn Jansen
NED
+43 s
+26 s
G2 / G3
 31:24
36:30
 1:29:00
Show details
Prediction details: Stijn Jansen

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 18:44
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 16.9 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:24 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 1.26 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:30 (3:39 / km)
Error: −5:06 / −0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:44 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:51 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 31:24 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:29:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 32.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 18 Jorik Van Egdom
NED
+63 s
+91 s
G4 / G4
correct 		30:41
36:08
 1:30:13
Show details
Prediction details: Jorik Van Egdom

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 19:04
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: -27.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:41 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.90 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:08 (3:37 / km)
Error: −5:27 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:04 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:24 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 30:41 (3:04 / km)
Total: 1:30:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 53 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7 Nicklas Hogervorst
GER
+52 s
+10 s
G3 / G3
correct 		31:55
35:28
 1:30:27
Show details
Prediction details: Nicklas Hogervorst

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 41.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.6 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:55 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:28 (3:33 / km)
Error: −3:33 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:27
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:53 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:35 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 31:55 (3:12 / km)
Total: 1:30:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:12
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 41.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Niels Van Lanen
NED
+35 s
+18 s
G2 / G2
correct 		33:09
33:07
 1:30:45
Show details
Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 18:36
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 16.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 93 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:09 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:07 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:36 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:51 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 33:09 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:30:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:12
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 24.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 15 Siwar Kool
NED
+68 s
+19 s
G4 / G3
 31:22
37:03
 1:30:54
Show details
Prediction details: Siwar Kool

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–13
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 19:09
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 48.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:22 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:03 (3:42 / km)
Error: −5:41 / −0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:09 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:24 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 31:22 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:30:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:12
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 57.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 3 Dorian Horsten
NED
+41 s
+3 s
G2 / G1
 33:25
35:00
 1:31:01
Show details
Prediction details: Dorian Horsten

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 38.2 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:25 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:00 (3:30 / km)
Error: −1:35 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:42 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:51 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 33:25 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:31:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 30.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 6 Dieter Boeye
BEL
+54 s
+25 s
G3 / G2
 32:42
34:44
 1:31:14
Show details
Prediction details: Dieter Boeye

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 29.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:42 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:44 (3:28 / km)
Error: −2:02 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:14
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:55 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:35 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 32:42 (3:16 / km)
Total: 1:31:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 43.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 4 Jeroen Velders
NED
+64 s
+28 s
G4 / G3
 31:49
34:04
 1:31:21
Show details
Prediction details: Jeroen Velders

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 19:05
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 35.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 77 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.4 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:49 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.86 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:04 (3:24 / km)
Error: −2:15 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:21
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:05 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:24 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 31:49 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:31:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:12
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 53.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 21 Mats Keulstra
NED
+57 s
+52 s
G3 / G4
 32:57
36:40
 1:31:29
Show details
Prediction details: Mats Keulstra

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 18:58
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 5.4 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:57 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:40 (3:40 / km)
Error: −3:43 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:58 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:35 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 32:57 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:31:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 47.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 8 Pep Delvaux
BEL
+44 s
+86 s
G2 / G4
 34:50
34:14
 1:32:26
Show details
Prediction details: Pep Delvaux

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 18:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +86 s
Fehler: -42.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:50 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.24 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:14 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:45 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:51 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 34:50 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:32:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 33.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 5 Rick Van der Knaap
NED
+63 s
+37 s
G4 / G3
 32:59
34:24
 1:32:31
Show details
Prediction details: Rick Van der Knaap

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 4–18
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 19:04
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 26.0 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:59 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 75 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:24 (3:26 / km)
Error: −1:25 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:04 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:24 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 32:59 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:32:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 60.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 23 Sem Lazaroms
NED
+29 s
+44 s
G2 / G3
 35:00
38:48
 1:32:36
Show details
Prediction details: Sem Lazaroms

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–16
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 18:30
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -14.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.1 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:00 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:48 (3:53 / km)
Error: −3:48 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:30 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:51 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 35:00 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:32:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 19 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 9 Olaf Jan Bosscher
NED
+55 s
+19 s
G3 / G3
correct 		35:06
35:37
 1:33:38
Show details
Prediction details: Olaf Jan Bosscher

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–20
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 18:56
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 36.2 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:06 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:37 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:56 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:35 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 35:06 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:33:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 44.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 13 Ivor Feunekes
NED
+72 s
+90 s
G5 / G4
 32:25
34:58
 1:34:05
Show details
Prediction details: Ivor Feunekes

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 19:13
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +90 s
Fehler: -17.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 13.9 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:25 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:58 (3:30 / km)
Error: −2:33 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:05
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:13 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 32:25 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:34:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 61.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 10 Thomas Cremers
NED
+133 s
+114 s
G5 / G5
correct 		32:25
33:19
 1:34:05
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Cremers

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–17
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +133 s
Time: 20:14
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +114 s
Fehler: 19.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 33.2 s
Gap behind: 23.7 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:25 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:19 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:14 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 32:25 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:34:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:18
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 116 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 25 Joran Stobbe
NED
+67 s
+126 s
G4 / G5
 34:42
36:08
 1:34:14
Show details
Prediction details: Joran Stobbe

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 19:08
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +126 s
Fehler: -58.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.4 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:42 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:08 (3:37 / km)
Error: −1:26 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:08 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:24 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 34:42 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:34:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 56.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 11 Hartwig De Smedt
BEL
+68 s
+9 s
G4 / G3
 35:49
36:27
 1:35:21
Show details
Prediction details: Hartwig De Smedt

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 14–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 19:09
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 58.5 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:49 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:27 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:21
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:09 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:24 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 35:49 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:35:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:12
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 57.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 16 Seppe De Graef
BEL
+100 s
+93 s
G5 / G4
 34:24
35:53
 1:36:04
Show details
Prediction details: Seppe De Graef

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 15–21
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +100 s
Time: 19:41
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +93 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.68 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.9 s
Gap behind: 33.2 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:24 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:53 (3:35 / km)
Error: −1:29 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:04
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:41 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:24 (3:26 / km)
Total: 1:36:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 89.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 19 Stijn Koole
NED
+21 s
+0 s
G2 / G3
 38:37
37:35
 1:36:13
Show details
Prediction details: Stijn Koole

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 18–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 18:22
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 21.2 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 14.8 s
Gap behind: 8.1 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:37 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -1.38 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:35 (3:46 / km)
Error: +1:02 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:13
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:22 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:51 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 38:37 (3:52 / km)
Total: 1:36:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 10.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 20 Lars Van Zessen
NED
+58 s
+47 s
G3 / G3
correct 		37:46
37:49
 1:36:18
Show details
Prediction details: Lars Van Zessen

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 17–23
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 18:59
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 10.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 61 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:46 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:49 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:59 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:35 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 37:46 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:36:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:12
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 47.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 22 Jasper Van der Velde
NED
+157 s
+206 s
G5 / G5
correct 		35:12
35:54
 1:36:52
Show details
Prediction details: Jasper Van der Velde

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 19–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +157 s
Time: 20:38
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +206 s
Fehler: -49.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 59 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 23.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:12 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:54 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:52
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:38 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 35:12 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:36:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:12
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 146.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 17 Jetze Van Popta
NED
+45 s
+48 s
G2 / G3
 39:34
37:16
 1:37:10
Show details
Prediction details: Jetze Van Popta

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 21–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 18:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -2.9 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.92 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 6.6 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:34 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:16 (3:44 / km)
Error: +2:18 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:10
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 18:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:51 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 39:34 (3:57 / km)
Total: 1:37:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 34.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 14 Pim Bakker
NED
+86 s
+110 s
G5 / G4
 37:32
35:33
 1:39:12
Show details
Prediction details: Pim Bakker

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 21–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 19:27
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +110 s
Fehler: -24.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.9 s
Gap behind: 13.9 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:32 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -1.71 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:33 (3:33 / km)
Error: +1:59 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:27 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 37:32 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:39:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 75.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +10.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 24 Kai Mos
NED
+0 s
+248 s
G0 / G5
36:05
Show details
Prediction details: Kai Mos

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 18:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +248 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 18:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.