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Elite Men

14.03.2026 AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Oceania Triathlon Championships Devonport

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 86/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 80 früheren Rennen und 2347 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.3 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 71.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 92.9 % · 80 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.8
Mean swim error26.7 s
Mean bike-speed error2.80 km/h
Correct bike groups8/28
No history0
Within the 80% range46.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Luke Willian
AUS
+28 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 30:10
30:31
 1:26:59
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Willian

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 17:39
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 27.6 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:10 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:31 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:39 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 30:10 (3:01 / km)
Total: 1:26:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 23.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3 Brandon Copeland
AUS
+34 s
+57 s
G2 / G2
correct 		30:41
31:08
 1:27:30
Show details
Prediction details: Brandon Copeland

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 17:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -23.4 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:41 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:08 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 30:41 (3:04 / km)
Total: 1:27:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 29.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2 Callum McClusky
AUS
+33 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:22
30:58
 1:28:11
Show details
Prediction details: Callum McClusky

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 17:44
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 5.9 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:22 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 90 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:58 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:44 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 31:22 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:28:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 29 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6 Lachlan Jones
AUS
+16 s
+5 s
G2 / G1
 31:28
32:34
 1:28:17
Show details
Prediction details: Lachlan Jones

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 17:27
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 10.5 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:28 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:34 (3:15 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:27 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 31:28 (3:09 / km)
Total: 1:28:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 11.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 18 Brayden Mercer
AUS
+1 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 32:44
35:27
 1:28:57
Show details
Prediction details: Brayden Mercer

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 17:12
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:44 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:27 (3:33 / km)
Error: −2:43 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:12 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:12 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 32:44 (3:16 / km)
Total: 1:28:57
6 / 5 Saxon Morgan
NZL
+22 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 32:45
32:23
 1:29:34
Show details
Prediction details: Saxon Morgan

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 3–19
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 17:33
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 12.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 186 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:45 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 186 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:23 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:33 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 32:45 (3:16 / km)
Total: 1:29:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 18.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 20 Grayson Westgate
NZL
+22 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		33:09
35:42
 1:29:58
Show details
Prediction details: Grayson Westgate

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 17:33
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -3.7 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.83 %, Sicherheit 98 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:09 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:42 (3:34 / km)
Error: −2:33 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:33 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 33:09 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:29:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 18.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 15 Joel Lange
NZL
+27 s
+37 s
G2 / G3
 33:10
34:25
 1:29:59
Show details
Prediction details: Joel Lange

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 17:38
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -10.1 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:10 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:25 (3:27 / km)
Error: −1:15 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:38 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 33:10 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:29:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 23 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 9 Henry McMecking
NZL
+24 s
+65 s
G2 / G3
 33:30
31:47
 1:30:19
Show details
Prediction details: Henry McMecking

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 17:35
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -40.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 158 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:30 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 160 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:47 (3:11 / km)
Error: +1:43 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:35 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 33:30 (3:21 / km)
Total: 1:30:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 20.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 25 Reece Harris
AUS
+12 s
+84 s
G2 / G5
 33:46
36:37
 1:30:35
Show details
Prediction details: Reece Harris

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–13
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 17:23
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: -72.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:46 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:37 (3:40 / km)
Error: −2:51 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:23 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 33:46 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:30:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 7.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 23 Gus Marfell
NZL
+36 s
+86 s
G2 / G3
 33:55
39:21
 1:30:44
Show details
Prediction details: Gus Marfell

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–23
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 17:47
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +86 s
Fehler: -50.0 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:55 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:21 (3:56 / km)
Error: −5:26 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:47 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 33:55 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:30:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 32.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 19 Rory Thornhill
AUS
+17 s
+6 s
G2 / G3
 33:58
34:49
 1:30:47
Show details
Prediction details: Rory Thornhill

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 11.4 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 93 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:49 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:28 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 33:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:30:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 13.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 17 Luke Schofield
AUS
+30 s
+87 s
G2 / G3
 34:28
34:05
 1:31:17
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Schofield

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–18
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 17:41
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +87 s
Fehler: -57.5 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:05 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:41 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:31:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:14
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 26.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 8 Logan Campbell
AUS
+37 s
+69 s
G2 / G3
 34:28
31:10
 1:31:17
Show details
Prediction details: Logan Campbell

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 13–20
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 17:48
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: -32.5 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 6.8 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:10 (3:07 / km)
Error: +3:18 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:48 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:31:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 32.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 13 Darcy Williams
AUS
+6 s
+57 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:37
34:16
 1:31:26
Show details
Prediction details: Darcy Williams

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 17:17
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -51.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.87 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:16 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:17 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:31:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 16 Bowen Bamford
AUS
+32 s
+64 s
G2 / G3
 34:43
34:31
 1:31:32
Show details
Prediction details: Bowen Bamford

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–21
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 17:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: -32.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:43 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:31 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:43 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 34:43 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:31:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 27.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 14 Ivan Abele
NZL
+27 s
+56 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:19
34:56
 1:32:08
Show details
Prediction details: Ivan Abele

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–20
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 17:38
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -28.7 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 130 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:19 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:56 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:38 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 35:19 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:32:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 23.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 4 Oscar Wootton
AUS
+34 s
+5 s
G2 / G1
 36:32
32:08
 1:33:21
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Wootton

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 18–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 17:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 29.4 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:32 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:08 (3:13 / km)
Error: +4:24 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 36:32 (3:39 / km)
Total: 1:33:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 30.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 10 Jordan Rieck
AUS
+43 s
+82 s
G3 / G3
correct 		35:00
32:21
 1:34:22
Show details
Prediction details: Jordan Rieck

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 17:54
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +82 s
Fehler: -38.7 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -1.09 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.8 s
Gap behind: 11.9 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:00 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:21 (3:14 / km)
Error: +2:39 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:54 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:39 (40.9 km/h)
Run: 35:00 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:34:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 39.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 27 Billy Zavetsanos
AUS
+6 s
+59 s
G2 / G7
 37:38
35:43
 1:34:27
Show details
Prediction details: Billy Zavetsanos

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 20–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 17:17
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -52.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (18 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:38 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:43 (3:34 / km)
Error: +1:55 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:27
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:17 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:13 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 37:38 (3:46 / km)
Total: 1:34:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 2.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 11 William Taylor
NZL
+55 s
+68 s
G4 / G3
 33:54
32:18
 1:34:51
Show details
Prediction details: William Taylor

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 14–26
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -12.8 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.9 s
Gap behind: 11.0 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:54 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:18 (3:14 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:06 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:41 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 33:54 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:34:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 51.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 22 Christophe Gardner
AUS
+121 s
+85 s
G5 / G3
 33:24
36:05
 1:35:10
Show details
Prediction details: Christophe Gardner

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 21–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +121 s
Time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: 36.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 45.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:24 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: −2:41 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:12 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:45 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 33:24 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:35:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 117.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 7 Toby Powers
AUS
+75 s
+56 s
G4 / G2
 34:14
31:51
 1:35:11
Show details
Prediction details: Toby Powers

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 14–26
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 18:26
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 18.9 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:14 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:51 (3:11 / km)
Error: +2:23 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:26 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:41 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 34:14 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:35:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 71 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 12 Kye Wylde
AUS
+76 s
+62 s
G4 / G3
 34:42
32:34
 1:35:39
Show details
Prediction details: Kye Wylde

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 8–28
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 18:27
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 45.4 s
Result: Group 3 (11 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:42 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 36 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:34 (3:15 / km)
Error: +2:08 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:27 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:41 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 34:42 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:35:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 71.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 24 Jack Latham
AUS
+69 s
+64 s
G4 / G4
correct 		35:01
40:10
 1:35:58
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Latham

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 20–28
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 18:20
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:01 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:10 (4:01 / km)
Error: −5:09 / −0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:20 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:41 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 35:01 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:35:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 65 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 28 Wade Barr
AUS
+66 s
+101 s
G4 / G5
 36:52
44:08
 1:37:49
Show details
Prediction details: Wade Barr

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 26–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 18:17
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +101 s
Fehler: -34.8 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:52 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:08 (4:25 / km)
Error: −7:16 / −0:44 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:17 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:41 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 36:52 (3:41 / km)
Total: 1:37:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 62.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 21 Jayden Schofield
AUS
+67 s
+81 s
G4 / G4
correct 		36:57
35:15
 1:37:54
Show details
Prediction details: Jayden Schofield

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 22–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 18:18
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: -14.0 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:57 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -1.06 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:15 (3:32 / km)
Error: +1:42 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:18 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:41 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 36:57 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:37:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 63.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 26 Luke Kuggeleijn
NZL
+0 s
+20 s
G1 / G6
36:18
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Kuggeleijn

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:11
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -20.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:18 (3:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 17:11 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:12 (42.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable