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U23 Men

14.03.2026 AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Oceania Triathlon Championships Devonport

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 85/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 80 früheren Rennen und 2347 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.3 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 70.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 88.2 % · 80 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.4
Mean swim error28.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.97 km/h
Correct bike groups8/17
No history0
Within the 80% range58.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 10 Brayden Mercer
AUS
+1 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 32:46
35:27
 1:28:59
Show details
Prediction details: Brayden Mercer

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 17:10
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:46 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:27 (3:33 / km)
Error: −2:41 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:10 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:12 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 32:46 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:28:59
2 / 11 Grayson Westgate
NZL
+23 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		33:10
35:42
 1:31:38
Show details
Prediction details: Grayson Westgate

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 17:32
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 57 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 15.8 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:10 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:42 (3:34 / km)
Error: −2:32 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:32 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 33:10 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:31:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
3 / 4 Henry McMecking
NZL
+24 s
+65 s
G2 / G3
 33:31
31:47
 1:31:59
Show details
Prediction details: Henry McMecking

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 17:33
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -40.6 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:31 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:47 (3:11 / km)
Error: +1:44 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:33 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 33:31 (3:21 / km)
Total: 1:31:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 20.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7 Darcy Williams
AUS
+6 s
+57 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:39
34:16
 1:33:07
Show details
Prediction details: Darcy Williams

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -50.9 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:39 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 40 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:16 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:15 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 34:39 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:33:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 2.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 13 Gus Marfell
NZL
+36 s
+86 s
G3 / G3
correct 		33:58
39:21
 1:33:15
Show details
Prediction details: Gus Marfell

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 17:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +86 s
Fehler: -49.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:21 (3:56 / km)
Error: −5:23 / −0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:33 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 33:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:33:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 32.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8 Ivan Abele
NZL
+27 s
+56 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:18
34:56
 1:33:46
Show details
Prediction details: Ivan Abele

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -28.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:18 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:56 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:36 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 35:18 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:33:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 23.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 3 Logan Campbell
AUS
+37 s
+69 s
G3 / G3
correct 		34:33
31:10
 1:33:50
Show details
Prediction details: Logan Campbell

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 17:46
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: -31.9 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:33 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:10 (3:07 / km)
Error: +3:23 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:46 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:33 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 34:33 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:33:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 33.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 9 Bowen Bamford
AUS
+32 s
+64 s
G3 / G3
correct 		34:43
34:31
 1:34:00
Show details
Prediction details: Bowen Bamford

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 17:41
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: -31.7 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:43 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:31 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:41 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:33 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 34:43 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:34:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 28.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 5 Jordan Rieck
AUS
+44 s
+82 s
G3 / G3
correct 		35:00
32:21
 1:34:17
Show details
Prediction details: Jordan Rieck

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–14
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 17:53
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +82 s
Fehler: -38.4 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -1.17 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: 11.9 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:00 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:21 (3:14 / km)
Error: +2:39 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:53 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:33 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 35:00 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:34:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 39.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 12 Christophe Gardner
AUS
+121 s
+85 s
G4 / G3
 33:23
36:05
 1:35:14
Show details
Prediction details: Christophe Gardner

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–15
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +121 s
Time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: 36.3 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 45.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:23 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: −2:42 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:10 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 33:23 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:35:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 117.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 6 William Taylor
NZL
+56 s
+68 s
G4 / G3
 33:56
32:18
 1:35:47
Show details
Prediction details: William Taylor

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -12.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.9 s
Gap behind: 11.0 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:56 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 48 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:18 (3:14 / km)
Error: +1:38 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:05 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 33:56 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:35:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 51.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 1 Oscar Wootton
AUS
+35 s
+5 s
G3 / G1
 36:32
32:08
 1:35:49
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Wootton

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–15
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 17:44
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 30.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:32 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:08 (3:13 / km)
Error: +4:24 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:44 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:33 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 36:32 (3:39 / km)
Total: 1:35:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 31.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 16 Billy Zavetsanos
AUS
+7 s
+59 s
G2 / G7
 37:38
35:43
 1:36:06
Show details
Prediction details: Billy Zavetsanos

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–16
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 17:16
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -52.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 15.8 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:38 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:43 (3:34 / km)
Error: +1:55 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:06
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:16 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:01 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 37:38 (3:46 / km)
Total: 1:36:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 2.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 2 Toby Powers
AUS
+76 s
+56 s
G4 / G2
 34:17
31:51
 1:36:08
Show details
Prediction details: Toby Powers

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 6–16
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 18:25
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 19.5 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 45.8 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:17 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:51 (3:11 / km)
Error: +2:26 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:25 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 34:17 (3:26 / km)
Total: 1:36:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 71.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 14 Jack Latham
AUS
+69 s
+64 s
G4 / G4
correct 		35:00
40:10
 1:36:51
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Latham

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 18:18
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 5.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -1.19 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:00 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:10 (4:01 / km)
Error: −5:10 / −0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:18 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 35:00 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:36:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 65.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 17 Wade Barr
AUS
+67 s
+101 s
G4 / G5
 36:51
44:08
 1:38:42
Show details
Prediction details: Wade Barr

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 16–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +101 s
Fehler: -34.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.0 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:51 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 44:08 (4:25 / km)
Error: −7:17 / −0:44 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:16 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:50 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 36:51 (3:41 / km)
Total: 1:38:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:13
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
About 62.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15 Luke Kuggeleijn
NZL
+0 s
+20 s
G1 / G6
36:18
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Kuggeleijn

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:09
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -20.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:18 (3:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 17:09 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:12 (42.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable