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U23 Women

14.03.2026 AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Oceania Triathlon Championships Devonport

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 78/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 55.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.8
Mean swim error48.9 s
Mean bike-speed error3.48 km/h
Correct bike groups4/9
No history0
Within the 80% range33.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Tara Sosinski
AUS
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:43
35:30
 1:37:42
Show details
Prediction details: Tara Sosinski

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 19:35
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 30.4 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:43 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:30 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:35 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:59 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 35:43 (3:34 / km)
Total: 1:37:42
2 / 2 Aspen Anderson
AUS
+30 s
+81 s
G2 / G2
correct 		37:15
36:18
 1:43:56
Show details
Prediction details: Aspen Anderson

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 20:05
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: -50.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 30.4 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:15 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:18 (3:38 / km)
Error: +0:57 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:05 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 37:15 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:43:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:41
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 24.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 6 Phoebe Carter
NZL
+63 s
+84 s
G2 / G3
 38:07
39:29
 1:44:48
Show details
Prediction details: Phoebe Carter

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 20:38
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: -20.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.4 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:07 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:29 (3:57 / km)
Error: −1:22 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:48
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:38 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 38:07 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:44:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 38.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5 Briana Mow
AUS
+66 s
+124 s
G2 / G3
 38:44
38:02
 1:45:25
Show details
Prediction details: Briana Mow

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 20:41
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +124 s
Fehler: -58.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:44 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:32 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:02 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:42 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:41 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 38:44 (3:52 / km)
Total: 1:45:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:41
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 59.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3 Isla Watson
AUS
+41 s
+53 s
G2 / G2
correct 		39:06
36:36
 1:45:47
Show details
Prediction details: Isla Watson

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 20:16
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: -11.6 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 9 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 8.4 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:06 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:36 (3:40 / km)
Error: +2:30 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:16 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 39:06 (3:55 / km)
Total: 1:45:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:41
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 35.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4 Mia Foster
AUS
+66 s
+88 s
G2 / G2
correct 		44:26
38:38
 1:51:07
Show details
Prediction details: Mia Foster

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 20:41
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -21.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:26 (4:27 / km)
Historical basis: 4:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.40 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:38 (3:52 / km)
Error: +5:48 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 1:51:07
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:41 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 44:26 (4:27 / km)
Total: 1:51:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:41
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 60.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 9 Madison Toovey
AUS
+50 s
+89 s
G2 / G4
 44:49
42:58
 1:51:30
Show details
Prediction details: Madison Toovey

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 20:25
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: -39.2 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.4 s
Gap behind: 13.4 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 32.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:49 (4:29 / km)
Historical basis: 4:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.09 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:58 (4:18 / km)
Error: +1:51 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:51:30
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:25 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 44:49 (4:29 / km)
Total: 1:51:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:41
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 43.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7 Kelsey Mitchell
AUS
+36 s
+88 s
G2 / G3
41:52
Show details
Prediction details: Kelsey Mitchell

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 20:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -51.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:52 (4:11 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:41
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 30.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 Gabriella Jackson
AUS
+33 s
+219 s
G2 / G5
41:25
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriella Jackson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 20:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +219 s
Fehler: -186.4 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.57 %, Sicherheit 0 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:25 (4:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:35 (36.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:41
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 26.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.