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Junior Women

14.03.2026 AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Oceania Triathlon Junior Championships Devonport

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 61/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 21.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.5
Mean swim error15.9 s
Mean bike-speed error1.75 km/h
Correct bike groups4/22
No history6
Within the 80% range14.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 5 Claire Spicknall
AUS
+22 s
+24 s
G2 / G1
 17:26
18:19
 52:06
Show details
Prediction details: Claire Spicknall

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -2.4 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 52:06
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:07 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 52:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 6 Ava Henville
AUS
+20 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 17:30
18:35
 52:10
Show details
Prediction details: Ava Henville

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -5.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 52:10
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:07 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 52:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 8.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 1 Addison Houslip
AUS
+22 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 17:52
16:54
 52:32
Show details
Prediction details: Addison Houslip

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -6.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 52:32
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:07 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: 52:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 10.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3 Hannah Pollock
AUS
+44 s
+31 s
G3 / G1
 17:45
17:50
 53:58
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Pollock

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 12.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 53:58
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:24 (33.9 km/h)
Run: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Total: 53:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 38 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 15 Sophie Webber
NZL
+27 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 19:19
20:23
 53:59
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Webber

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 5.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Error: −1:04 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 53:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:07 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Total: 53:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 11 Sienna Carter
AUS
+16 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:29
18:28
 54:09
Show details
Prediction details: Sienna Carter

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -10.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 16.0 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 54:09
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:07 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Total: 54:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 14 Emily Rice
AUS
+30 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:46
19:21
 54:26
Show details
Prediction details: Emily Rice

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:21 (3:52 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 54:26
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:07 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Total: 54:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 24.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 7 Indie Williams
NZL
+0 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		20:24
18:47
 54:38
Show details
Prediction details: Indie Williams

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -21.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 16.0 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:24 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Error: +1:37 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 54:38
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:14 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 20:24 (4:05 / km)
Total: 54:38
9 / 4 Gwen Watson
AUS
+34 s
+22 s
G3 / G1
 18:49
18:09
 55:02
Show details
Prediction details: Gwen Watson

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 12.2 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 55:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:24 (33.9 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 55:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 28.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 21 Ella Rayner
AUS
+49 s
+37 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:54
20:41
 55:07
Show details
Prediction details: Ella Rayner

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–14
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 11.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 22.0 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:41 (4:08 / km)
Error: −1:47 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 55:07
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:24 (33.9 km/h)
Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Total: 55:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 43 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 23 Charli Lehmann
AUS
+32 s
+25 s
G2 / G4
 20:43
22:04
 55:23
Show details
Prediction details: Charli Lehmann

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 11–14
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:43 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:04 (4:25 / km)
Error: −1:21 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 55:23
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:07 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 20:43 (4:09 / km)
Total: 55:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 26 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 18 Kiara Mooney
AUS
+33 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 20:52
23:04
 55:32
Show details
Prediction details: Kiara Mooney

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 11–14
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 33.0 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:52 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:04 (4:37 / km)
Error: −2:12 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 55:32
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:07 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 20:52 (4:10 / km)
Total: 55:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 27.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 16 Sophie Lampe
NZL
+145 s
+101 s
G4 / G3
 20:08
19:02
 56:53
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Lampe

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 14–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +145 s
Time: 11:52
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +101 s
Fehler: 44.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:08 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Error: +1:06 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 56:53
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:52 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 20:08 (4:02 / km)
Total: 56:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 139.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 25 Aurora Jarvis
AUS
+71 s
+82 s
G4 / G5
 20:14
21:59
 56:59
Show details
Prediction details: Aurora Jarvis

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 14–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +82 s
Fehler: -11.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 22.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:14 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:59 (4:24 / km)
Error: −1:45 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 56:59
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 20:14 (4:03 / km)
Total: 56:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 65 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 12 Charlotte Chiles
NZL
+39 s
+30 s
G3 / G1
 20:46
19:40
 56:59
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Chiles

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 9.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Error: +1:06 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 56:59
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:24 (33.9 km/h)
Run: 20:46 (4:09 / km)
Total: 56:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 33.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 28 Gabriella Green
AUS
+91 s
+102 s
G4 / G7
 20:45
21:23
 57:30
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriella Green

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 16–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 10:58
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +102 s
Fehler: -11.5 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 28.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:23 (4:17 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 57:30
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:58 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 20:45 (4:09 / km)
Total: 57:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 84.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 8 Charlee Newman
AUS
+75 s
+30 s
G4 / G1
 20:56
19:11
 57:41
Show details
Prediction details: Charlee Newman

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 17–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 10:42
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 44.9 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:56 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:11 (3:50 / km)
Error: +1:45 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 57:41
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 20:56 (4:11 / km)
Total: 57:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 69 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 19 Gemma Gorton
AUS
+72 s
+60 s
G4 / G3
 21:07
20:00
 57:52
Show details
Prediction details: Gemma Gorton

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 18–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 11.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 32.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:07 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Error: +1:07 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 57:52
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 21:07 (4:13 / km)
Total: 57:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 66 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 22 Verety Pickford
AUS
+138 s
+100 s
G4 / G5
 21:08
20:31
 57:53
Show details
Prediction details: Verety Pickford

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +138 s
Time: 11:45
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +100 s
Fehler: 38.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 47.0 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:08 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:31 (4:06 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 57:53
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:45 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 21:08 (4:14 / km)
Total: 57:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 132.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 27 Madison Rae
AUS
+81 s
+84 s
G4 / G6
 22:37
22:14
 59:22
Show details
Prediction details: Madison Rae

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 21–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 9.9 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:37 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:14 (4:27 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 59:22
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 22:37 (4:31 / km)
Total: 59:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 74.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 26 Melanie Button
NZL
+75 s
+104 s
G4 / G5
 23:39
24:36
 1:00:24
Show details
Prediction details: Melanie Button

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 10:42
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +104 s
Fehler: -29.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:39 (4:44 / km)
Historical basis: 4:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:36 (4:55 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:24
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: 23:39 (4:44 / km)
Total: 1:00:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 61.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +13.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Piper Anderson
AUS
+0 s
+28 s
G0 / G1
17:16
Show details
Prediction details: Piper Anderson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Charlotte Kane
AUS
+0 s
+28 s
G0 / G2
18:18
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Kane

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Jasmine Hume
AUS
+0 s
+8 s
G0 / G1
19:18
Show details
Prediction details: Jasmine Hume

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Elke Rayward
AUS
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
19:47
Show details
Prediction details: Elke Rayward

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:47 (3:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Olivia Smith
AUS
+0 s
+58 s
G0 / G3
19:44
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Smith

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20 Mila Laarakkers
NZL
+91 s
+104 s
G4 / G3
20:30
Show details
Prediction details: Mila Laarakkers

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 10:58
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +104 s
Fehler: -13.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 47.0 s
Result: Group 3 (5 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:30 (4:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:58 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:20 (34.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 79.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 24 Lucy Henville
AUS
+0 s
+64 s
G0 / G5
21:14
Show details
Prediction details: Lucy Henville

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (4 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:14 (4:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.