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PTS5 Men

17.04.2026 AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Oceania Triathlon Para Championships Runaway Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 17.04.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 100/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 74 früheren Rennen und 1629 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 40.0 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 12.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 74 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error24.8 s
Mean bike-speed error0.56 km/h
Correct bike groups1/2
No history0
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Jack Howell
AUS
+12 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:19
17:04
 48:14
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Howell

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 11:02
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 95.5 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:02 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:43 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Total: 48:14
2 / 2 David Bryant
AUS
+108 s
+70 s
G2 / G1
 17:37
19:34
 50:08
Show details
Prediction details: David Bryant

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +108 s
Time: 12:38
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: 37.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 95.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Error: −1:57 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 50:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:38 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Total: 50:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 35.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +71.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.