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PTS5 Women

17.04.2026 AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Oceania Triathlon Para Championships Runaway Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 17.04.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 75/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 71 früheren Rennen und 931 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 36.4 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 12.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 71 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error0.0 s
Mean bike-speed error1.65 km/h
Correct bike groups1/1
No history1
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Grace Brimelow
AUS
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		26:29
21:59
 1:03:50
Show details
Prediction details: Grace Brimelow

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 26:29 (5:18 / km)
Historical basis: 5:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:59 (4:24 / km)
Error: +4:30 / +0:54 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:50
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 37:21 (32.1 km/h)
Run: 26:29 (5:18 / km)
Total: 1:03:50
0 / 2 Monique Muskens
AUS
+0 s
+259 s
G0 / G2
24:18
Show details
Prediction details: Monique Muskens

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +259 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 31.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:18 (4:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.