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Qualifier 4 Elite Men

18.04.2026 AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Oceania Triathlon SuperSprint Championships and Cup Runaway Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.04.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 88/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 29 früheren Rennen und 707 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 45.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 18.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 92.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 46.2 % · 29 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.8
Mean swim error23.4 s
Mean bike-speed error4.09 km/h
Correct bike groups4/13
No history0
Within the 80% range38.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Brayden Mercer
AUS
+5 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:21
4:32
 14:18
Show details
Prediction details: Brayden Mercer

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 3:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 5.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:21 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 11
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:32 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 14:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:48 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 4:21 (2:54 / km)
Total: 14:18
2 / 9 Benjamin Devries
AUS
+0 s
+10 s
G1 / G3
 4:26
5:00
 14:23
Show details
Prediction details: Benjamin Devries

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 2:55
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: -10.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:26 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:00 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 14:23
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 2:55 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:48 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 4:26 (2:57 / km)
Total: 14:23
3 / 2 Robbie White
NZL
+10 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:34
4:47
 14:31
Show details
Prediction details: Robbie White

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 3:05
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 5.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 11.3 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:34 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:47 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 14:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:05 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:48 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 4:34 (3:03 / km)
Total: 14:31
4 / 3 Jack Crome
AUS
+6 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:39
4:49
 14:36
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Crome

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 3:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.80 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 42.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:39 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.62 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:49 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 14:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:48 (42.9 km/h)
Run: 4:39 (3:06 / km)
Total: 14:36
5 / 4 Jayden Schofield
AUS
+21 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 4:24
4:51
 14:54
Show details
Prediction details: Jayden Schofield

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 3:16
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 16.8 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:24 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:51 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 14:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:16 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:03 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 4:24 (2:56 / km)
Total: 14:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 4.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 12 Grayson Westgate
NZL
+25 s
+3 s
G2 / G3
 4:47
6:01
 15:17
Show details
Prediction details: Grayson Westgate

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 3:20
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 22.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:47 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:01 (4:01 / km)
Error: −1:14 / −0:50 / km
Overall prediction: 15:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:20 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:03 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 4:47 (3:11 / km)
Total: 15:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 10.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Cooper Carswell
AUS
+21 s
+11 s
G2 / G3
 4:54
4:36
 15:24
Show details
Prediction details: Cooper Carswell

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 3:16
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:54 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:36 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 15:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:16 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:03 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 4:54 (3:16 / km)
Total: 15:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 11 Oliver Larcombe
NZL
+27 s
+17 s
G2 / G3
 5:03
5:59
 15:33
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Larcombe

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 3:22
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 9.7 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 1.16 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:03 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:59 (3:59 / km)
Error: −0:56 / −0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 15:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:22 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:03 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 5:03 (3:22 / km)
Total: 15:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:10
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 12.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 10 Alec Ball
NZL
+37 s
+14 s
G3 / G3
correct 		4:35
5:33
 15:53
Show details
Prediction details: Alec Ball

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 3:32
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 23.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.5 s
Gap behind: 19.9 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:35 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:33 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 15:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:32 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:41 (39.3 km/h)
Run: 4:35 (3:03 / km)
Total: 15:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 22.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 6 Angus Argent-Smith
AUS
+57 s
+25 s
G4 / G2
 4:40
4:45
 16:09
Show details
Prediction details: Angus Argent-Smith

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–11
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 3:52
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 31.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.9 s
Gap behind: 11.1 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:40 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:45 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 16:09
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 3:52 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:32 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 4:40 (3:07 / km)
Total: 16:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:10
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 42.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 5 Wade Barr
AUS
+28 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 5:54
4:50
 16:24
Show details
Prediction details: Wade Barr

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–12
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 3:23
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 18.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 9.5 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:54 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:50 (3:13 / km)
Error: +1:04 / +0:43 / km
Overall prediction: 16:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:23 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:03 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 5:54 (3:56 / km)
Total: 16:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:10
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 13.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13 Caide Ellis
AUS
+68 s
+30 s
G5 / G4
 4:43
4:57
 16:44
Show details
Prediction details: Caide Ellis

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–12
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 4:03
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 38.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.1 s
Gap behind: 58.1 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:43 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:57 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 16:44
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 4:03 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:53 (38.6 km/h)
Run: 4:43 (3:09 / km)
Total: 16:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 53.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 8 Jacob Mckie
AUS
+126 s
+17 s
G6 / G3
 5:45
4:42
 20:47
Show details
Prediction details: Jacob Mckie

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +126 s
Time: 5:01
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 109.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 58.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:45 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.26 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:42 (3:08 / km)
Error: +1:03 / +0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 20:47
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:01 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:56 (32.5 km/h)
Run: 5:45 (3:50 / km)
Total: 20:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 111.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.