Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Repechage 3 Elite Men

18.04.2026 AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Oceania Triathlon SuperSprint Championships and Cup Runaway Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.04.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 62/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 83.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 33.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.3
Mean swim error22.3 s
Mean bike-speed error1.90 km/h
Correct bike groups3/12
No history0
Within the 80% range66.7 %
Details
1 / 3 Lleyton Wall
AUS
+13 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:44
4:09
 15:11
Show details
Prediction details: Lleyton Wall

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 2:52
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 10.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.1 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:44 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:09 (2:46 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 15:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 2:52 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:14 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 4:44 (3:10 / km)
Total: 15:11
2 / 8 Jack Wicks
AUS
+2 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 4:47
4:36
 15:14
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Wicks

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 2:41
Pace: 1:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:47 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:36 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 15:14
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 2:41 (1:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:14 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 4:47 (3:11 / km)
Total: 15:14
3 / 6 Koby Read
AUS
+5 s
+7 s
G1 / G2
 5:08
4:32
 15:35
Show details
Prediction details: Koby Read

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 2:44
Pace: 1:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: -2.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 8.1 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:08 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:32 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 15:35
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 2:44 (1:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:14 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 5:08 (3:25 / km)
Total: 15:35
4 / 4 William Kisby
AUS
+22 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 4:42
4:24
 15:55
Show details
Prediction details: William Kisby

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 3:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 17.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:42 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:24 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 15:55
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 3:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:47 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 4:42 (3:08 / km)
Total: 15:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:56
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 5.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Cooper Carswell
AUS
+26 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 4:54
4:07
 16:07
Show details
Prediction details: Cooper Carswell

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 3:05
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 15.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 21.0 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:54 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:07 (2:45 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 16:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:05 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:47 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 4:54 (3:16 / km)
Total: 16:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:56
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 9.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 1 Monty Dixon
AUS
+51 s
+11 s
G3 / G1
 4:30
3:58
 16:29
Show details
Prediction details: Monty Dixon

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 3:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 39.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 9.5 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:30 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 3:58 (2:39 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 16:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:59 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 4:30 (3:00 / km)
Total: 16:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:48
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
About 42.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 9 Hunter Anderson
AUS
+18 s
+7 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:18
4:47
 16:31
Show details
Prediction details: Hunter Anderson

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 2:57
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 10.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:18 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:47 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 16:31
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 2:57 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:47 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 5:18 (3:32 / km)
Total: 16:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:56
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 1.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 5 Oliver Moxon
AUS
+22 s
+3 s
G2 / G1
 5:22
4:30
 16:35
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Moxon

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 3:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 19.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.27 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:22 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:30 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:52 / +0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 16:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:47 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 5:22 (3:34 / km)
Total: 16:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:56
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 5.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 10 Caide Ellis
AUS
+73 s
+26 s
G4 / G4
correct 		4:43
4:22
 16:50
Show details
Prediction details: Caide Ellis

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 3:52
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 46.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:43 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:22 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 16:50
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 3:52 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:55 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 4:43 (3:09 / km)
Total: 16:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:48
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
About 64.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 7 Samuel McHale
NZL
+70 s
+22 s
G4 / G3
 5:06
4:25
 17:13
Show details
Prediction details: Samuel McHale

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 3:49
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 47.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.2 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:06 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:25 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 17:13
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 3:49 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:55 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 5:06 (3:24 / km)
Total: 17:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:48
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
About 61.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 11 Riley Abrahams
AUS
+60 s
+14 s
G3 / G4
 5:27
4:35
 17:26
Show details
Prediction details: Riley Abrahams

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–12
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 3:39
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 46.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.5 s
Gap behind: 9.2 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:27 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:35 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:52 / +0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 17:26
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 3:39 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:59 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 5:27 (3:38 / km)
Total: 17:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:47
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
About 52 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 12 Tyreece Collins
SAM
+47 s
+38 s
G3 / G5
 6:00
5:31
 17:59
Show details
Prediction details: Tyreece Collins

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 11–12
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 3:26
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 8.6 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.0 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:00 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:31 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 17:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:26 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:59 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 6:00 (4:00 / km)
Total: 17:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 2:48
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
About 38.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.