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Semifinal 2 Elite Women

19.04.2026 AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2026 Oceania Triathlon SuperSprint Championships and Cup Runaway Bay

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 19.04.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 86/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 432 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 40.3 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 19.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.3
Mean swim error4.5 s
Mean bike-speed error0.69 km/h
Correct bike groups6/12
No history0
Within the 80% range66.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Zoe Clarke
AUS
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		4:47
4:30
 16:22
Show details
Prediction details: Zoe Clarke

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:04
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 6.7 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:47 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:30 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 16:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:04 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:35 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 4:47 (3:12 / km)
Total: 16:22
2 / 1 Hannah Pollock
AUS
+12 s
+17 s
G2 / G1
 4:45
4:29
 16:41
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Pollock

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 3:16
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -5.1 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:45 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:29 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 16:41
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:16 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:41 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 4:45 (3:10 / km)
Total: 16:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2 Phoebe Carter
NZL
+13 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 4:49
4:36
 16:45
Show details
Prediction details: Phoebe Carter

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 3:17
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:49 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:36 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 16:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:17 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:41 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 4:49 (3:13 / km)
Total: 16:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 7.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4 Elke Rayward
AUS
+7 s
+3 s
G2 / G1
 4:55
4:30
 16:51
Show details
Prediction details: Elke Rayward

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 3:11
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 6.7 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:55 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 4:30 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 16:51
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:11 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:41 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 4:55 (3:16 / km)
Total: 16:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 1.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 7 Charlotte Chiles
NZL
+15 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:02
5:30
 16:58
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Chiles

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 3:19
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 9.2 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:02 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:30 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 16:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:19 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:41 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 5:02 (3:21 / km)
Total: 16:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Isla Watson
AUS
+10 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 5:07
5:12
 17:03
Show details
Prediction details: Isla Watson

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 3:14
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:07 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:12 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 17:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:14 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:41 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 5:07 (3:24 / km)
Total: 17:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 4.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 6 Sophie Webber
NZL
+13 s
+5 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:07
5:09
 17:03
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Webber

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 3:17
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 7.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:07 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:09 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 17:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:17 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:41 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 5:07 (3:25 / km)
Total: 17:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 7.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8 Charlee Newman
AUS
+24 s
+23 s
G3 / G3
correct 		5:12
5:16
 18:11
Show details
Prediction details: Charlee Newman

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 3:28
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 1.1 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 9.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:12 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:16 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 18:11
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:28 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:29 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 5:12 (3:28 / km)
Total: 18:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 19.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 11 Abbey Hickey
AUS
+25 s
+18 s
G3 / G4
 5:14
5:14
 18:13
Show details
Prediction details: Abbey Hickey

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 3:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 6.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:14 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:14 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 18:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:29 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 5:14 (3:29 / km)
Total: 18:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 19.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 12 Charlotte Brown
NZL
+26 s
+16 s
G3 / G3
correct 		5:27
6:07
 18:26
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Brown

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–12
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 3:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:27 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:07 (4:05 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 18:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:29 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 5:27 (3:38 / km)
Total: 18:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10 Sophie Garrett
NZL
+30 s
+30 s
G3 / G3
correct 		5:29
5:34
 18:28
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Garrett

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 11–12
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 3:34
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -0.2 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 6.7 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:29 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:34 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 18:28
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 3:34 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:29 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 5:29 (3:39 / km)
Total: 18:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 24.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 9 Indie Arbuckle
AUS
+37 s
+32 s
G4 / G3
 5:11
5:31
 18:31
Show details
Prediction details: Indie Arbuckle

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–12
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 3:41
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 4.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 6.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:11 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:31 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 18:31
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:41 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:44 (33.0 km/h)
Run: 5:11 (3:27 / km)
Total: 18:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:09
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 31.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.