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Elite Women

08.03.2026 Ebotse Golf & Country Estate RSA
Race information and calculation basis
2026 RSA Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 08.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 33/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 25.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.8
Mean swim error48.4 s
Mean bike-speed error0.84 km/h
Correct bike groups3/4
No history0
Within the 80% range50.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Hannah Newman
RSA
+34 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:15
19:57
 51:06
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Newman

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 33.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 13.5 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.92 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:57 (3:59 / km)
Error: −1:42 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 51:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:18 (36.8 km/h)
Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Total: 51:06
2 / 4 Thana Groenewald
RSA
+128 s
+92 s
G3 / G3
correct 		21:44
20:04
 57:54
Show details
Prediction details: Thana Groenewald

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +128 s
Time: 12:09
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +92 s
Fehler: 36.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 42.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:44 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:04 (4:01 / km)
Error: +1:40 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 57:54
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:09 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:02 (34.9 km/h)
Run: 21:44 (4:21 / km)
Total: 57:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 90.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Karla Grobler
RSA
+86 s
+6 s
G2 / G2
correct
19:54
Show details
Prediction details: Karla Grobler

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 11:27
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 80.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 39.0 s
Gap behind: 42.1 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:27 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:22 (36.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
About 43.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +42.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Kirsten Engelbrecht
RSA
+47 s
+3 s
G2 / G3
20:23
Show details
Prediction details: Kirsten Engelbrecht

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 44.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.5 s
Gap behind: 39.0 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:22 (36.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
About 9.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +37.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.