Prediction comparison

Elite Men

29.03.2026 Mossel Bay RSA

Race information and calculation basis

2026 RSA Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 29.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 100/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 49 früheren Rennen und 1484 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 44.4 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 29.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 49 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error0.0

Mean swim error23.0 s

Mean bike-speed error0.96 km/h

Correct bike groups1/4

No history0

Within the 80% range100.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Julian Birkel RSA	+45 s +27 s	G2 / G1	33:00 31:55	1:31:46	Show details Prediction details: Julian Birkel Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: 19:03 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 18.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 49 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Gap ahead: 9.4 s Gap behind: 5.3 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h Running and total Run: 33:00 (3:18 / km) Historical basis: 3:20 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 17 % Ergebnis Lauf: 31:55 (3:12 / km) Error: +1:05 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 1:31:46 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:03 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:01 (40.3 km/h) Run: 33:00 (3:18 / km) Total: 1:31:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 19:00 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 2.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +42.2 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2	William Pearson Inman RSA	+36 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	33:33 36:00	1:32:16	Show details Prediction details: William Pearson Inman Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 35.6 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 40.3 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 9.4 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h Running and total Run: 33:33 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:00 (3:36 / km) Error: −2:27 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 1:32:16 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:07 (40.3 km/h) Run: 33:33 (3:21 / km) Total: 1:32:16
3 / 3	Matthew Van Coller RSA	+50 s +67 s	G3 / G1	35:53 37:50	1:38:42	Show details Prediction details: Matthew Van Coller Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: 19:08 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +67 s Fehler: -16.7 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 37.8 km/h Gap ahead: 5.3 s Gap behind: 91.9 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.63 km/h Running and total Run: 35:53 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:50 (3:47 / km) Error: −1:57 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:08 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:59 (37.8 km/h) Run: 35:53 (3:35 / km) Total: 1:38:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:56 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 11.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4	Conrad Visagie RSA	+142 s +164 s	G4 / G2	33:53 39:17	1:39:31	Show details Prediction details: Conrad Visagie Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +142 s Time: 20:40 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +164 s Fehler: -21.8 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.16 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.0 km/h Gap ahead: 91.9 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.05 km/h Running and total Run: 33:53 (3:23 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 18 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:17 (3:56 / km) Error: −5:24 / −0:32 / km Overall prediction: 1:39:31 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:40 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:16 (37.0 km/h) Run: 33:53 (3:23 / km) Total: 1:39:31 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:56 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m About 103.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +38.5 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total