Prediction comparison

Elite Men

30.05.2026 Koper SLO

Race information and calculation basis

2026 SLO Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 38/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 11 früheren Rennen und 289 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.0 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 30.05.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 20.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 60.0 % · 11 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.2

Mean swim error64.6 s

Mean bike-speed error1.13 km/h

Correct bike groups1/5

No history0

Within the 80% range20.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 2	Sergej Fekonja SLO	+69 s +1 s	G1 / G2	36:35 36:20	1:36:01	Show details Prediction details: Sergej Fekonja Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +69 s Time: 19:59 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 68.4 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 68 % Speed: 39.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 43.7 s Gap behind: 14.6 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h Running and total Run: 36:35 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:40 / km Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:20 (3:38 / km) Error: +0:15 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:36:01 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 19:59 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:02 (39.1 km/h) Run: 36:35 (3:40 / km) Total: 1:36:01
2 / 1	Domen Bojanc SLO	+26 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	36:47 35:07	1:36:13	Show details Prediction details: Domen Bojanc Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: 19:16 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 25.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 39.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.7 s Gap behind: 43.7 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 41.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h Running and total Run: 36:47 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:07 (3:31 / km) Error: +1:40 / +0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:36:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:16 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:02 (39.1 km/h) Run: 36:47 (3:41 / km) Total: 1:36:13
3 / 5	Erik Hudovornik SLO	+20 s +1 s	G1 / G2	38:47 38:38	1:38:13	Show details Prediction details: Erik Hudovornik Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +20 s Time: 19:10 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 19.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 68 % Speed: 39.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 20.0 s Gap behind: 5.7 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h Running and total Run: 38:47 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:38 (3:52 / km) Error: +0:09 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 1:38:13 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:10 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:02 (39.1 km/h) Run: 38:47 (3:53 / km) Total: 1:38:13
0 / 3	Tjaž Dolgan SLO	+0 s +209 s	G1 / G3	35:00		Show details Prediction details: Tjaž Dolgan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 18:50 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +209 s Fehler: -209.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 39.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 20.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.28 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 35:00 (3:30 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 18:50 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:02 (39.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 4	Jure Majdič SLO	+84 s +83 s	G1 / G2	37:19		Show details Prediction details: Jure Majdič Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +84 s Time: 20:14 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +83 s Fehler: 1.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 68 % Speed: 39.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.6 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 40.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.27 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 37:19 (3:44 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 20:14 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 58:02 (39.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

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Running and total

Placement

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Placement

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Placement

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Running and total