Prediction comparison

Elite Women

30.05.2026 Koper SLO

Race information and calculation basis

2026 SLO Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 80/100 hoch

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 72 früheren Rennen und 1324 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 39.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.05.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 60.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 60.0 % · 72 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error1.8

Mean swim error92.0 s

Mean bike-speed error1.81 km/h

Correct bike groups2/5

No history0

Within the 80% range0.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Tinkara Stres SLO	+29 s +78 s	G2 / G1	41:47 41:03	1:46:09	Show details Prediction details: Tinkara Stres Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 21:15 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +78 s Fehler: -48.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.74 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 21 % Speed: 35.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 29.3 s Gap behind: 28.7 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 36.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h Running and total Run: 41:47 (4:11 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.99 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:03 (4:06 / km) Error: +0:44 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:46:09 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:15 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:24 (35.8 km/h) Run: 41:47 (4:11 / km) Total: 1:46:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:51 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 24.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2	Luna Sraka SLO	+58 s +0 s	G2 / G1	43:51 45:02	1:48:13	Show details Prediction details: Luna Sraka Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +58 s Time: 21:44 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 58.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 35.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 28.7 s Gap behind: 143.7 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 36.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h Running and total Run: 43:51 (4:23 / km) Historical basis: 4:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 45:02 (4:30 / km) Error: −1:11 / −0:07 / km Overall prediction: 1:48:13 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:44 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:24 (35.8 km/h) Run: 43:51 (4:23 / km) Total: 1:48:13 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:51 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 53.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Eva Bezlaj SLO	+202 s +245 s	G3 / G3 correct	45:11 40:18	1:57:03	Show details Prediction details: Eva Bezlaj Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +202 s Time: 24:08 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +245 s Fehler: -43.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.26 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 143.7 s Gap behind: 284.3 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 33.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h Running and total Run: 45:11 (4:31 / km) Historical basis: 4:35 / km Best comparable pace: 4:35 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.34 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:18 (4:02 / km) Error: +4:53 / +0:29 / km Overall prediction: 1:57:03 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 24:08 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:46 (33.4 km/h) Run: 45:11 (4:31 / km) Total: 1:57:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:51 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 196.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Tanja Kompan SLO	+486 s +481 s	G3 / G3 correct	44:41		Show details Prediction details: Tanja Kompan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +486 s Time: 28:52 Pace: 1:55 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +481 s Fehler: 5.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 284.3 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.95 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 44:41 (4:28 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 28:52 (1:55 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:46 (33.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 20:51 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 481.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Tjaša Žnidar SLO	+0 s +305 s	G1 / G2	47:28		Show details Prediction details: Tjaša Žnidar Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 20:46 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +305 s Fehler: -305.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 96 % Speed: 40.6 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 29.3 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 34.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 47:28 (4:45 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 20:46 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 56:10 (40.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable

Prediction comparison

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