Prediction comparison

Junior Men

17.04.2026 PAN

Race information and calculation basis

2026 South American Junior Games Panama

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 17.04.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

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The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 56/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 74 früheren Rennen und 1629 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 40.0 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 12.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 11.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 88.2 % · 74 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

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Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.6

Mean swim error27.1 s

Mean bike-speed error3.97 km/h

Correct bike groups8/16

No history1

Within the 80% range11.8 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 5	Enrique Pau CHI	+30 s +10 s	G2 / G2 correct	16:43 17:28	49:06	Show details Prediction details: Enrique Pau Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 6–8 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 5 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 10:16 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +10 s Fehler: 19.9 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 43 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.8 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.96 km/h Running and total Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.99 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:28 (3:30 / km) Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 49:06 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:24 (37.9 km/h) Run: 16:43 (3:21 / km) Total: 49:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:07 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 9.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 1	Raimundo Vicente San Martín Naranjo CHI	+59 s +1 s	G2 / G1	16:48 18:02	49:11	Show details Prediction details: Raimundo Vicente San Martín Naranjo Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 7–13 Top-10 probability: 76 % Result: 1 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: 10:45 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 57.9 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 24 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 15.8 s Gap behind: 6.7 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 42.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.71 km/h Running and total Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:21 / km Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km) Error: −1:14 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 49:11 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:24 (37.9 km/h) Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km) Total: 49:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:07 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 38.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2	Alejandro Juanuk BRA	+43 s +56 s	G2 / G2 correct	19:01 16:26	51:24	Show details Prediction details: Alejandro Juanuk Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 7–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 10:29 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +56 s Fehler: -12.9 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 26 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 12.8 s Gap behind: 15.8 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.15 km/h Running and total Run: 19:01 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:50 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km) Error: +2:35 / +0:31 / km Overall prediction: 51:24 Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:24 (37.9 km/h) Run: 19:01 (3:48 / km) Total: 51:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:08 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m About 21.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7	Jerónimo Vargas Moreno COL	+30 s +13 s	G2 / G2 correct	20:10 17:54	52:33	Show details Prediction details: Jerónimo Vargas Moreno Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 9–11 Top-10 probability: 78 % Result: 7 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: 10:16 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 17.3 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 12.8 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 40.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.03 km/h Running and total Run: 20:10 (4:02 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:35 / km) Error: +2:16 / +0:27 / km Overall prediction: 52:33 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:24 (37.9 km/h) Run: 20:10 (4:02 / km) Total: 52:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 14.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4	Aaron Jesus Hernández Morales VEN	+18 s +0 s	G3 / G2	20:20 16:28	52:48	Show details Prediction details: Aaron Jesus Hernández Morales Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 9–11 Top-10 probability: 63 % Result: 4 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 18.1 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 23 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 43 % Speed: 37.3 km/h Gap ahead: 6.2 s Gap behind: 6.9 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.39 km/h Running and total Run: 20:20 (4:04 / km) Historical basis: 4:10 / km Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 15 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km) Error: +3:52 / +0:46 / km Overall prediction: 52:48 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:10 (37.3 km/h) Run: 20:20 (4:04 / km) Total: 52:48 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 2.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 3	Eduardo Staniaski Gonçalves BRA	+28 s +58 s	G2 / G2 correct	20:38 16:22	53:01	Show details Prediction details: Eduardo Staniaski Gonçalves Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 10–12 Top-10 probability: 25 % Result: 3 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +28 s Time: 10:14 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: -29.9 s H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 15 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.9 s Gap behind: 1.8 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.12 km/h Running and total Run: 20:38 (4:08 / km) Historical basis: 4:10 / km Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km) Error: +4:16 / +0:51 / km Overall prediction: 53:01 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:24 (37.9 km/h) Run: 20:38 (4:08 / km) Total: 53:01 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 12.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 11	Santino Calderón Lucoratolo ARG	+77 s +97 s	G5 / G3	16:00 18:23	55:06	Show details Prediction details: Santino Calderón Lucoratolo Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 6–13 Top-10 probability: 60 % Result: 11 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +77 s Time: 11:03 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +97 s Fehler: -20.0 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -1.13 %, Sicherheit 46 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 31.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 11.4 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 39.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -8.16 km/h Running and total Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.84 %, Sicherheit 21 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km) Error: −2:23 / −0:29 / km Overall prediction: 55:06 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:48 (31.7 km/h) Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km) Total: 55:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:31 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 32.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +44.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 16	Mathias Anrango Maldonado ECU	+66 s +88 s	G4 / G5	22:11 20:34	55:16	Show details Prediction details: Mathias Anrango Maldonado Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 12–13 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +66 s Time: 10:52 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +88 s Fehler: -22.4 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 37.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.7 s Gap behind: 11.4 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 38.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h Running and total Run: 22:11 (4:26 / km) Historical basis: 4:29 / km Best comparable pace: 4:29 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:34 (4:07 / km) Error: +1:37 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 55:16 Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:00 (37.5 km/h) Run: 22:11 (4:26 / km) Total: 55:16 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:31 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m About 20.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +44.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 15	Jonas Emmanuel Fermin Carrillo VEN	+114 s +101 s	G7 / G8	21:31 18:26	1:02:47	Show details Prediction details: Jonas Emmanuel Fermin Carrillo Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 14–15 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +114 s Time: 11:40 Pace: 1:33 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +101 s Fehler: 13.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 28.3 s Gap behind: 71.1 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 36.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -5.74 km/h Running and total Run: 21:31 (4:18 / km) Historical basis: 4:23 / km Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.71 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:26 (3:41 / km) Error: +3:05 / +0:37 / km Overall prediction: 1:02:47 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:40 (1:33 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:10 (30.6 km/h) Run: 21:31 (4:18 / km) Total: 1:02:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 98.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 13	Anderson Humberto Pantoja Velapatiño PER	+86 s +58 s	G6 / G6 correct	24:05 18:47	1:04:54	Show details Prediction details: Anderson Humberto Pantoja Velapatiño Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 15–15 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +86 s Time: 11:12 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: 27.7 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 7.9 s Gap behind: 28.3 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 37.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.50 km/h Running and total Run: 24:05 (4:49 / km) Historical basis: 4:54 / km Best comparable pace: 4:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.71 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Error: +5:18 / +1:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:04:54 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:24 (30.5 km/h) Run: 24:05 (4:49 / km) Total: 1:04:54 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 69.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10	Alejandro Velez Torres COL	+78 s +59 s	G5 / G2	26:19 19:29	1:05:25	Show details Prediction details: Alejandro Velez Torres Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 16–16 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +78 s Time: 11:04 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +59 s Fehler: 18.8 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 7.9 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 41.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -9.28 km/h Running and total Run: 26:19 (5:16 / km) Historical basis: 5:19 / km Best comparable pace: 5:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:29 (3:54 / km) Error: +6:50 / +1:22 / km Overall prediction: 1:05:25 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 11:04 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:48 (31.7 km/h) Run: 26:19 (5:16 / km) Total: 1:05:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 62 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Arturo Maximiliano Peching San Roman PER	+25 s +55 s	G2 / G2 correct	17:43		Show details Prediction details: Arturo Maximiliano Peching San Roman Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 10:11 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: -30.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.49 %, Sicherheit 19 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.9 s Gap behind: 0.2 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 40.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.94 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:33 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:24 (37.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 9.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8	Agustín Wendler Kossmann ARG	+25 s +60 s	G2 / G2 correct	18:36		Show details Prediction details: Agustín Wendler Kossmann Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: 10:11 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +60 s Fehler: -34.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.79 %, Sicherheit 15 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 18 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.2 s Gap behind: 2.9 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.20 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:36 (3:43 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:24 (37.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:51 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m About 20.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9	Jeon Fernandes ARU	+1 s +3 s	G1 / G2	18:47		Show details Prediction details: Jeon Fernandes Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1 s Time: 9:47 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: -2.0 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.09 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 10.9 s Result: Group 2 (9 people) Speed: 39.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.27 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:53 (37.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 12	Gabriel Alejandro Lloay Vinueza ECU	+0 s +58 s	G0 / G4	19:23		Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Alejandro Lloay Vinueza Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 17–17 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 9:46 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 38.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 (3:53 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14	Elias Medina Paolucci URU	+12 s +55 s	G1 / G6	18:56		Show details Prediction details: Elias Medina Paolucci Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 14 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +12 s Time: 9:58 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: -43.1 s H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.42 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 83 % Speed: 37.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.9 s Gap behind: 6.2 s Result: Group 6 (2 people) Speed: 36.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:47 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:53 (37.4 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 17	Abdiel Best PAN	+185 s +119 s	G7 / G7 correct	19:51		Show details Prediction details: Abdiel Best Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 17 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +185 s Time: 12:51 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +119 s Fehler: 66.1 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 71.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 37.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -6.99 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (3:58 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 12:51 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 38:10 (30.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:02 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m About 169.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +15.8 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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