Prediction comparison

Elite Women

30.05.2026 ZLATIBOR SRB

Race information and calculation basis

2026 SRB Sprint Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

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The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 63/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 72 früheren Rennen und 1324 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 39.8 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.05.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 5 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 25.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 66.7 % · 72 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.9

Mean swim error64.6 s

Mean bike-speed error1.69 km/h

Correct bike groups3/8

No history4

Within the 80% range16.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Lana Gavrilović SRB	+23 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	19:50 18:45	53:19	Show details Prediction details: Lana Gavrilović Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 10:41 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 23.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 56 % Speed: 36.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.5 s Gap behind: 5.8 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 36.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.18 km/h Running and total Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km) Historical basis: 3:57 / km Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:45 (3:45 / km) Error: +1:05 / +0:13 / km Overall prediction: 53:19 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:41 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:06 (36.4 km/h) Run: 19:50 (3:58 / km) Total: 53:19
2 / 2	Maša Marković SRB	+14 s +4 s	G1 / G1 correct	21:05 19:47	54:34	Show details Prediction details: Maša Marković Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 10:32 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 9.5 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 85 % Speed: 36.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 9.5 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 36.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.27 km/h Running and total Run: 21:05 (4:13 / km) Historical basis: 4:13 / km Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 16 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:47 (3:57 / km) Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km Overall prediction: 54:34 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:06 (36.4 km/h) Run: 21:05 (4:13 / km) Total: 54:34
3 / 3	Natalija Seslija SRB	+29 s +18 s	G2 / G2 correct	22:35 20:14	59:50	Show details Prediction details: Natalija Seslija Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 4–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: 10:47 Pace: 1:26 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +18 s Fehler: 10.8 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 26 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.8 s Gap behind: 32.9 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 35.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.42 km/h Running and total Run: 22:35 (4:31 / km) Historical basis: 4:31 / km Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:14 (4:03 / km) Error: +2:21 / +0:28 / km Overall prediction: 59:50 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:13 (32.7 km/h) Run: 22:35 (4:31 / km) Total: 59:50 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 10.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4	Petra Vasilić SRB	+62 s +47 s	G2 / G3	22:42 21:07	59:57	Show details Prediction details: Petra Vasilić Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +62 s Time: 11:20 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: 14.7 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 32.7 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 32.9 s Gap behind: 379.7 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 35.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.61 km/h Running and total Run: 22:42 (4:32 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:07 (4:13 / km) Error: +1:35 / +0:19 / km Overall prediction: 59:57 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:20 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 36:13 (32.7 km/h) Run: 22:42 (4:32 / km) Total: 59:57 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:37 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 43.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8	Aniko Jablan SRB	+441 s +572 s	G3 / G7	26:16 27:14	1:16:46	Show details Prediction details: Aniko Jablan Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +441 s Time: 17:39 Pace: 2:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +572 s Fehler: -130.6 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 379.7 s Gap behind: 3.7 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 27.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.09 km/h Running and total Run: 26:16 (5:15 / km) Historical basis: 5:16 / km Best comparable pace: 5:16 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:14 (5:27 / km) Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:16:46 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 17:39 (2:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 43:05 (27.9 km/h) Run: 26:16 (5:15 / km) Total: 1:16:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:36 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 423 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 11	Branka Lazić SRB	+693 s +869 s	G4 / G9	26:48 33:40	1:23:46	Show details Prediction details: Branka Lazić Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +693 s Time: 21:51 Pace: 2:55 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +869 s Fehler: -175.9 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 20 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 155.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 29.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.27 km/h Running and total Run: 26:48 (5:22 / km) Historical basis: 5:22 / km Best comparable pace: 5:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 33:40 (6:44 / km) Error: −6:52 / −1:22 / km Overall prediction: 1:23:46 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 21:51 (2:55 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 45:25 (25.0 km/h) Run: 26:48 (5:22 / km) Total: 1:23:46 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:36 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 674.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5	Dunja Todic SRB	+0 s +51 s	G0 / G4	22:00		Show details Prediction details: Dunja Todic Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:18 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +51 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 31.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:00 (4:24 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Ivana Nikolić SRB	+445 s +362 s	G3 / G5	26:44		Show details Prediction details: Ivana Nikolić Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +445 s Time: 17:43 Pace: 2:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +362 s Fehler: 83.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.7 s Gap behind: 93.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 29.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.88 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:44 (5:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 17:43 (2:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 43:05 (27.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:36 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 426.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7	Teodora Despotović SRB	+0 s +651 s	G0 / G8	24:06		Show details Prediction details: Teodora Despotović Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:18 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +651 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 29.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:06 (4:49 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Danijela Stankovic SRB	+538 s +469 s	G4 / G6	31:09		Show details Prediction details: Danijela Stankovic Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 4–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +538 s Time: 19:16 Pace: 2:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +469 s Fehler: 69.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 93.0 s Gap behind: 155.0 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 26.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.80 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:09 (6:14 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 19:16 (2:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 45:25 (25.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:36 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m About 519.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10	Anđela Sokolovski SRB	+0 s +883 s	G0 / G10	26:25		Show details Prediction details: Anđela Sokolovski Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–11 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:18 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +883 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 26.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:25 (5:17 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Katarina Stojanović SRB	+0 s +877 s	G0 / G11	29:51		Show details Prediction details: Katarina Stojanović Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 12–12 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 10:18 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +877 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 11 (1 people) Speed: 22.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 29:51 (5:58 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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