Prediction comparison

Elite Men

24.04.2026 Samarkand UZB

Race information and calculation basis

2026 UZB Triathlon National Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 24.04.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 75/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 20 früheren Rennen und 403 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 37.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 24.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 80.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 20 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error0.8

Mean swim error74.0 s

Mean bike-speed error1.51 km/h

Correct bike groups4/10

No history0

Within the 80% range70.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Aleksandr Kurishov UZB	+5 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	35:20 34:53	1:35:42	Show details Prediction details: Aleksandr Kurishov Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +5 s Time: 18:25 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 5.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 32 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 40.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 29.2 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 39.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h Running and total Run: 35:20 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 27 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:53 (3:29 / km) Error: +0:27 / +0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:35:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:25 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (40.0 km/h) Run: 35:20 (3:32 / km) Total: 1:35:42
2 / 3	Aleksey Makarov UZB	+34 s +47 s	G2 / G1	35:39 37:20	1:37:45	Show details Prediction details: Aleksey Makarov Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 18:54 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -12.8 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 25 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 39.2 km/h Gap ahead: 29.2 s Gap behind: 7.9 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 40.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h Running and total Run: 35:39 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 22 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:20 (3:44 / km) Error: −1:41 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:37:45 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:32 (39.2 km/h) Run: 35:39 (3:34 / km) Total: 1:37:45 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:29 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 25.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 6	Azizillo Kuchkarov UZB	+42 s +115 s	G3 / G4	38:54 40:35	1:43:06	Show details Prediction details: Azizillo Kuchkarov Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: 19:02 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +115 s Fehler: -72.9 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 38.0 km/h Gap ahead: 7.9 s Gap behind: 28.9 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 35.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.22 km/h Running and total Run: 38:54 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.23 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:35 (4:04 / km) Error: −1:41 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 1:43:06 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:02 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:30 (38.0 km/h) Run: 38:54 (3:53 / km) Total: 1:43:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:29 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 33.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2	Ruslan Karnilov UZB	+239 s +114 s	G5 / G2	36:22 33:57	1:45:25	Show details Prediction details: Ruslan Karnilov Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 3–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +239 s Time: 22:19 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +114 s Fehler: 124.5 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.68 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 74.7 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 39.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.23 km/h Running and total Run: 36:22 (3:38 / km) Historical basis: 3:36 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 7 % Ergebnis Lauf: 33:57 (3:24 / km) Error: +2:25 / +0:14 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:25 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:19 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:04 (36.0 km/h) Run: 36:22 (3:38 / km) Total: 1:45:25 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:21 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m About 237.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +0.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5	Sultan Aliev UZB	+164 s +143 s	G5 / G3	36:40 37:21	1:45:43	Show details Prediction details: Sultan Aliev Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 4–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +164 s Time: 21:04 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +143 s Fehler: 20.8 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 24 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 36.2 s Gap behind: 74.7 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 37.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.82 km/h Running and total Run: 36:40 (3:40 / km) Historical basis: 3:42 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 20 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:21 (3:44 / km) Error: −0:41 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:45:43 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:04 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:04 (36.0 km/h) Run: 36:40 (3:40 / km) Total: 1:45:43 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:29 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 154.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4	Kamran Khodjaev UZB	+104 s +141 s	G5 / G2	38:02 37:26	1:47:05	Show details Prediction details: Kamran Khodjaev Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 3–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +104 s Time: 20:04 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +141 s Fehler: -36.6 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 32 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 3.3 s Gap behind: 23.2 s Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 39.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.37 km/h Running and total Run: 38:02 (3:48 / km) Historical basis: 3:49 / km Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 30 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:26 (3:45 / km) Error: +0:36 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 1:47:05 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:04 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:04 (36.0 km/h) Run: 38:02 (3:48 / km) Total: 1:47:05 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:29 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 95.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7	Mukhammadyusuf Abdukhalilov UZB	+71 s +137 s	G4 / G3	40:28 42:30	1:48:03	Show details Prediction details: Mukhammadyusuf Abdukhalilov Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 5–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +71 s Time: 19:31 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +137 s Fehler: -66.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 36.3 km/h Gap ahead: 28.9 s Gap behind: 29.3 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 37.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.48 km/h Running and total Run: 40:28 (4:03 / km) Historical basis: 4:06 / km Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 10 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.23 %, Sicherheit 3 % Ergebnis Lauf: 42:30 (4:15 / km) Error: −2:02 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 1:48:03 Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:31 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:24 (36.3 km/h) Run: 40:28 (4:03 / km) Total: 1:48:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:29 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 62.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8	Koraboev Abdullajon UZB	+101 s +234 s	G5 / G5 correct	39:15 39:36	1:48:18	Show details Prediction details: Koraboev Abdullajon Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 5–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +101 s Time: 20:01 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +234 s Fehler: -132.9 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.8 s Gap behind: 3.3 s Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.62 km/h Running and total Run: 39:15 (3:56 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 5 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 39:36 (3:58 / km) Error: −0:21 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:48:18 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:01 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:04 (36.0 km/h) Run: 39:15 (3:56 / km) Total: 1:48:18 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:29 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 92.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 9	Muxammadyunus Abdulvojibov UZB	+128 s +235 s	G5 / G5 correct	40:09 40:37	1:49:12	Show details Prediction details: Muxammadyunus Abdulvojibov Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 8–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +128 s Time: 20:28 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +235 s Fehler: -107.4 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 23.2 s Gap behind: 36.2 s Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 35.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h Running and total Run: 40:09 (4:01 / km) Historical basis: 4:01 / km Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:37 (4:04 / km) Error: −0:28 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: 1:49:12 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 20:28 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:04 (36.0 km/h) Run: 40:09 (4:01 / km) Total: 1:49:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:29 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 118.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 10	Аsilbek Аbdugabbarov UZB	+100 s +261 s	G5 / G5 correct	42:00 41:11	1:51:03	Show details Prediction details: Аsilbek Аbdugabbarov Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 9–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +100 s Time: 20:00 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +261 s Fehler: -160.7 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (6 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 36.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 29.3 s Gap behind: 0.8 s Result: Group 5 (3 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.48 km/h Running and total Run: 42:00 (4:12 / km) Historical basis: 4:12 / km Best comparable pace: 4:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 2 % Ergebnis Lauf: 41:11 (4:07 / km) Error: +0:49 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: 1:51:03 Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 20:00 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:04 (36.0 km/h) Run: 42:00 (4:12 / km) Total: 1:51:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 18:29 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m About 91.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +8.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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