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Elite Women

30.05.2026 Alghero ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Championship Series Alghero

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 66/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 91.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.4
Mean swim error17.2 s
Mean bike-speed error0.91 km/h
Correct bike groups19/37
No history0
Within the 80% range56.8 %
Details
1 / 2 Beth Potter
GBR
+20 s
+27 s
G1 / G1
correct 		33:36
33:42
 1:33:57
Show details
Prediction details: Beth Potter

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 18:45
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 303 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:36 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 304 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:42 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:45 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 33:36 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:33:57
2 / 11 Taylor Knibb
USA
+18 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		33:38
35:40
 1:33:59
Show details
Prediction details: Taylor Knibb

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 18:43
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 9.3 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:38 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 61 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:40 (3:34 / km)
Error: −2:02 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:43 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 33:38 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:33:59
3 / 5 Leonie Periault
FRA
+37 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 33:26
34:02
 1:34:14
Show details
Prediction details: Leonie Periault

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 19:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 21.6 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 281 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:26 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 296 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:02 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 33:26 (3:21 / km)
Total: 1:34:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 8.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 13 Sophie Evans
GBR
+33 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 33:27
36:12
 1:34:15
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Evans

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 18:58
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 32.7 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:27 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:12 (3:37 / km)
Error: −2:45 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:58 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 33:27 (3:21 / km)
Total: 1:34:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 4.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3 Lisa Tertsch
GER
+14 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		33:55
33:46
 1:34:16
Show details
Prediction details: Lisa Tertsch

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 18:39
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 373 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:55 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 374 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:46 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:39 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 33:55 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:34:16
6 / 8 Taylor Spivey
USA
+21 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:09
35:07
 1:34:30
Show details
Prediction details: Taylor Spivey

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 18:46
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 12.9 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 302 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:09 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 303 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:07 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:46 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:09 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:34:30
7 / 7 Jolien Vermeylen
BEL
+6 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:11
34:36
 1:34:32
Show details
Prediction details: Jolien Vermeylen

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 18:31
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 393 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:11 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 389 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:36 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:31 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:11 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:34:32
8 / 28 Tilly Anema
GBR
+16 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 34:13
37:18
 1:34:34
Show details
Prediction details: Tilly Anema

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 18:41
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 16.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:13 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:18 (3:44 / km)
Error: −3:05 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:41 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:13 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:34:34
9 / 1 Cassandre Beaugrand
FRA
+14 s
+32 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:23
33:26
 1:34:44
Show details
Prediction details: Cassandre Beaugrand

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 18:39
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -18.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 210 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.8 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:23 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 211 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:26 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:57 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:39 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:23 (3:26 / km)
Total: 1:34:44
10 / 4 Jeanne Lehair
LUX
+24 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:31
33:58
 1:34:52
Show details
Prediction details: Jeanne Lehair

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–19
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 18:49
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 339 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:31 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 340 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:58 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:49 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:31 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:34:52
11 / 19 Gina Sereno
USA
+45 s
+39 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:28
35:12
 1:35:16
Show details
Prediction details: Gina Sereno

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–27
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 5.9 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 221 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 212 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:12 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:10 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:35:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 17 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 12 Jessica Fullagar
GBR
+29 s
+42 s
G2 / G1
 34:41
36:04
 1:35:29
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Fullagar

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–17
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 18:54
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -13.4 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 161 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:41 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 161 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:04 (3:36 / km)
Error: −1:23 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:41 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:35:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 18 Roksana Slupek
POL
+44 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:53
34:36
 1:35:41
Show details
Prediction details: Roksana Slupek

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–25
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 19:09
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 11.3 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 186 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:53 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 185 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:36 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:09 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:53 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:35:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 16.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 34 Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto
COL
+44 s
+37 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:57
39:21
 1:35:45
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 10–27
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 19:09
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:57 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:21 (3:56 / km)
Error: −4:24 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:09 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 34:57 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:35:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 15.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 23 Desirae Ridenour
CAN
+28 s
+36 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:01
35:49
 1:35:49
Show details
Prediction details: Desirae Ridenour

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–18
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -7.9 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 77 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:01 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:49 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:53 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 35:01 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:35:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 0.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 6 Georgia Taylor-Brown
GBR
+40 s
+36 s
G2 / G1
 35:08
34:29
 1:35:56
Show details
Prediction details: Georgia Taylor-Brown

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 10–25
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 19:05
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 3.6 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:08 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 207 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:29 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:05 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 35:08 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:35:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 11.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 20 Maria Tomé
POR
+42 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:19
35:34
 1:36:07
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Tomé

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 10–31
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 19:07
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 9.3 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 267 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:19 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 260 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:34 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:07 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 35:19 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:36:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 14.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 10 Márta Kropkó
HUN
+7 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		36:00
35:30
 1:36:21
Show details
Prediction details: Márta Kropkó

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–22
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 18:32
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 4.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 155 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:00 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:30 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:32 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 36:00 (3:36 / km)
Total: 1:36:21
19 / 15 Therese Feuersinger
AUT
+9 s
+39 s
G1 / G1
correct 		36:06
36:32
 1:36:27
Show details
Prediction details: Therese Feuersinger

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 15–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 18:34
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -29.8 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 4.8 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:06 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:32 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:34 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 36:06 (3:37 / km)
Total: 1:36:27
20 / 32 Cecilia Santamaria Surroca
ESP
+26 s
+28 s
G1 / G2
 36:15
38:18
 1:36:36
Show details
Prediction details: Cecilia Santamaria Surroca

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 14–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 18:51
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 161 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:15 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:18 (3:50 / km)
Error: −2:03 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:51 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 36:15 (3:37 / km)
Total: 1:36:36
21 / 29 Kirsten Kasper
USA
+34 s
+11 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:22
37:28
 1:37:10
Show details
Prediction details: Kirsten Kasper

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 16–29
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 18:59
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 22.9 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 260 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:22 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 261 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:28 (3:45 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:59 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 36:22 (3:38 / km)
Total: 1:37:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 27 Eva Goodisson
NZL
+22 s
+36 s
G1 / G2
 36:53
37:09
 1:37:14
Show details
Prediction details: Eva Goodisson

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 18–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 18:47
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -14.0 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:53 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:09 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:47 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 36:53 (3:41 / km)
Total: 1:37:14
23 / 16 Robin Dreijling
NED
+27 s
+33 s
G1 / G1
correct 		37:04
36:50
 1:37:25
Show details
Prediction details: Robin Dreijling

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 18:52
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -6.1 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:04 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:50 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:52 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 37:04 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:37:25
24 / 9 Tanja Neubert
GER
+66 s
+30 s
G3 / G1
 34:56
35:17
 1:37:36
Show details
Prediction details: Tanja Neubert

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 13–32
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 19:31
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 35.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 226 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:56 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 221 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:17 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:31 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:28 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 34:56 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:37:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 37.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 22 Cathia Schär
SUI
+72 s
+113 s
G3 / G2
 34:58
35:51
 1:37:38
Show details
Prediction details: Cathia Schär

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 15–34
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 19:37
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +113 s
Fehler: -41.2 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 209 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:58 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 209 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:51 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:53 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:37 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:28 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 34:58 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:37:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 43.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 17 Olivia Mathias
GBR
+29 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 37:04
37:11
 1:37:52
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Mathias

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 21–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 18:54
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 18.6 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 224 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:04 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 224 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:11 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 37:04 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:37:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 0.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 30 Selina Klamt
GER
+24 s
+30 s
G1 / G2
 37:33
37:35
 1:37:54
Show details
Prediction details: Selina Klamt

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 25–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 18:49
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -6.3 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 211 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:33 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:35 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:49 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 37:33 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:37:54
28 / 25 Danielle Orie
USA
+47 s
+28 s
G3 / G2
 35:28
35:55
 1:38:08
Show details
Prediction details: Danielle Orie

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 14–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 19.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:28 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:55 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:12 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:28 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 35:28 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:38:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 19.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 26 Verena Steinhauser
ITA
+60 s
+43 s
G3 / G2
 35:31
36:24
 1:38:11
Show details
Prediction details: Verena Steinhauser

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 15–33
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 19:25
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 16.9 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 365 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:31 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 359 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:24 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:53 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:25 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:28 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 35:31 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:38:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 32 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 21 Vittoria Lopes
BRA
+3 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		37:55
39:10
 1:38:16
Show details
Prediction details: Vittoria Lopes

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 23–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 18:28
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -14.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 184 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:55 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 185 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:10 (3:55 / km)
Error: −1:15 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:28 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:54 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 37:55 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:38:16
31 / 31 Sara Guerrero Manso
ESP
+35 s
+17 s
G2 / G2
correct 		37:48
38:15
 1:38:36
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Guerrero Manso

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 27–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 19:00
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 18.0 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 207 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:48 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 207 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:15 (3:50 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:00 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 37:48 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:38:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 14 Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal
MEX
+37 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 38:04
36:22
 1:38:52
Show details
Prediction details: Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 15–36
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 19:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 8.4 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 316 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:04 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 316 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:22 (3:38 / km)
Error: +1:42 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:03 (40.6 km/h)
Run: 38:04 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:38:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 9.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 36 Rebecca Beti
SUI
+49 s
+112 s
G3 / G2
 36:37
40:38
 1:39:17
Show details
Prediction details: Rebecca Beti

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 20–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 19:14
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +112 s
Fehler: -63.3 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:37 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:38 (4:04 / km)
Error: −4:01 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:14 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:28 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 36:37 (3:40 / km)
Total: 1:39:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 20.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 24 Marta Pintanel Raymundo
ESP
+63 s
+41 s
G3 / G2
 37:16
35:52
 1:39:56
Show details
Prediction details: Marta Pintanel Raymundo

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 29–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 19:28
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 21.8 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 296 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:16 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 296 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:52 (3:35 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:28 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:28 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 37:16 (3:44 / km)
Total: 1:39:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 34.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 33 Dana Prikrylova
CZE
+51 s
+34 s
G3 / G2
 37:57
38:19
 1:40:37
Show details
Prediction details: Dana Prikrylova

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 30–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 19:16
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 17.2 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 48 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:57 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:19 (3:50 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:16 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:28 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 37:57 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:40:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 23.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 37 Romana Gajdošová
SVK
+55 s
+111 s
G3 / G3
correct 		38:17
40:28
 1:40:57
Show details
Prediction details: Romana Gajdošová

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 32–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 19:20
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +111 s
Fehler: -56.3 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 185 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:17 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 176 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:28 (4:03 / km)
Error: −2:11 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:20 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:28 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 38:17 (3:50 / km)
Total: 1:40:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 26.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 35 Diana Dunajska
SVK
+76 s
+51 s
G4 / G3
 37:02
37:03
 1:43:31
Show details
Prediction details: Diana Dunajska

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 31–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 19:41
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 24.9 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:02 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:03 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:43:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:41 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:05:13 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 37:02 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:43:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 48 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.