Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Elite Women

11.07.2026 Hamburg GER
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Championship Series Hamburg

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 88/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 26 früheren Rennen und 463 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 11.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 96.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 26 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.5
Mean swim error11.9 s
Mean bike-speed error1.04 km/h
Correct bike groups19/52
No history0
Within the 80% range57.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Tilda Månsson
SWE
+29 s
+41 s
G2 / G1
 15:36
15:58
 45:00
Show details
Prediction details: Tilda Månsson

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–12
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -12.5 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 358 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 329 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 45:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Total: 45:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 18.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 5 Emma Lombardi
FRA
+20 s
+33 s
G2 / G1
 15:42
16:14
 45:06
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Lombardi

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -13.5 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 324 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 325 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Total: 45:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 6 Beth Potter
GBR
+16 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 15:46
16:26
 45:10
Show details
Prediction details: Beth Potter

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -15.4 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 431 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 388 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Total: 45:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 5.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 1 Leonie Periault
FRA
+29 s
+35 s
G2 / G1
 15:59
15:56
 45:23
Show details
Prediction details: Leonie Periault

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–18
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -6.2 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 380 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 395 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Total: 45:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 18.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 17 Gina Sereno
USA
+29 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 16:00
16:46
 45:24
Show details
Prediction details: Gina Sereno

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–19
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -2.2 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 315 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 310 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Total: 45:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 18.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4 Taylor Spivey
USA
+11 s
+24 s
G2 / G1
 16:05
16:13
 45:29
Show details
Prediction details: Taylor Spivey

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–13
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -13.0 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 439 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 396 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:13 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:05 (3:13 / km)
Total: 45:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 1.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 13 Valentina Riasova
AIN
+28 s
+40 s
G2 / G1
 16:06
16:41
 45:30
Show details
Prediction details: Valentina Riasova

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–19
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -11.9 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 153 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 153 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 45:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 45:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 18.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 2 Lisa Tertsch
GER
+3 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:18
16:06
 45:32
Show details
Prediction details: Lisa Tertsch

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: -9.1 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 526 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 495 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:06 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:08 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Total: 45:32
9 / 33 Djenyfer Arnold
BRA
+25 s
+43 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:17
16:59
 45:41
Show details
Prediction details: Djenyfer Arnold

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–21
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -17.8 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 378 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 349 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Total: 45:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 15.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 8 Jeanne Lehair
LUX
+20 s
+30 s
G2 / G1
 16:19
16:28
 45:43
Show details
Prediction details: Jeanne Lehair

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–21
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -10.5 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 507 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 471 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Total: 45:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 22 Bianca Seregni
ITA
+4 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:29
17:10
 45:43
Show details
Prediction details: Bianca Seregni

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 3.8 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 407 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 408 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:08 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:43
12 / 9 Fanni Szalai
HUN
+0 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:33
16:22
 45:47
Show details
Prediction details: Fanni Szalai

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–16
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: -6.0 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:08 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Total: 45:47
13 / 15 Sian Rainsley
GBR
+14 s
+27 s
G2 / G1
 16:29
16:52
 45:53
Show details
Prediction details: Sian Rainsley

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 6–21
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -13.2 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 301 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 296 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 12 Laura Lindemann
GER
+12 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 16:30
16:40
 45:54
Show details
Prediction details: Laura Lindemann

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -8.9 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 359 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 315 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:30 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 2.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 25 Maria Tomé
POR
+20 s
+28 s
G2 / G1
 16:32
17:33
 45:56
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Tomé

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 8–24
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -8.5 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 435 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 408 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 45:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 31 Sophie Malowiecki
AUS
+32 s
+57 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:33
16:47
 45:57
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Malowiecki

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 14–31
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -24.8 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 45:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Total: 45:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 22.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 24 Desirae Ridenour
CAN
+12 s
+37 s
G2 / G1
 16:37
17:29
 46:01
Show details
Prediction details: Desirae Ridenour

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 9–21
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -25.5 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 158 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:52 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 46:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Total: 46:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 23 Erika Ackerlund
USA
+20 s
+30 s
G2 / G1
 16:37
17:24
 46:01
Show details
Prediction details: Erika Ackerlund

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 9–30
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -10.1 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 359 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 357 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 46:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Total: 46:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 10.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 38 Aspen Anderson
AUS
+27 s
+47 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:39
17:15
 46:03
Show details
Prediction details: Aspen Anderson

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 14–31
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -19.6 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 46:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Total: 46:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 17.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 14 Tanja Neubert
GER
+32 s
+33 s
G2 / G1
 16:40
16:51
 46:04
Show details
Prediction details: Tanja Neubert

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 7–41
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -1.1 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 335 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 330 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Total: 46:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 22.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 10 Diana Isakova
AIN
+15 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 16:45
16:25
 46:09
Show details
Prediction details: Diana Isakova

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 12–28
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -15.9 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 282 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 282 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:25 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:45 (3:21 / km)
Total: 46:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 5.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 19 Nicole Van Der Kaay
NZL
+16 s
+39 s
G2 / G1
 16:49
16:47
 46:13
Show details
Prediction details: Nicole Van Der Kaay

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 13–27
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -22.8 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 311 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 267 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 46:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Total: 46:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 46 Sara Guerrero Manso
ESP
+20 s
+32 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:49
18:16
 46:13
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Guerrero Manso

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 14–30
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -12.3 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 295 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 295 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Error: −1:27 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 46:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Total: 46:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 18 Marta Pintanel Raymundo
ESP
+24 s
+36 s
G2 / G1
 16:56
16:51
 46:20
Show details
Prediction details: Marta Pintanel Raymundo

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 18–36
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -11.6 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 415 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 412 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Total: 46:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 14.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 42 Manami Hayashi
JPN
+12 s
+34 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:02
17:26
 46:26
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 17–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -22.3 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 232 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 232 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:02 (3:24 / km)
Total: 46:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 32 Carina Reicht
AUT
+52 s
+63 s
G3 / G2
 16:49
16:51
 46:30
Show details
Prediction details: Carina Reicht

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 13–51
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: -10.6 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 46:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Total: 46:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 42.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 11 Franka Rust
GER
+44 s
+41 s
G3 / G1
 16:51
16:33
 46:32
Show details
Prediction details: Franka Rust

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 14–43
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 3.1 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 233 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 233 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Total: 46:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 34.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 26 Eva Goodisson
NZL
+24 s
+28 s
G2 / G1
 17:10
17:41
 46:34
Show details
Prediction details: Eva Goodisson

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 21–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -3.8 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 241 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 228 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 46:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 46:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 14.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 20 Julia Bröcker
GER
+34 s
+30 s
G3 / G1
 16:56
17:01
 46:37
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Bröcker

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 22–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 211 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 207 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Total: 46:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 24.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 47 Zuzana Michalickova
SVK
+33 s
+33 s
G3 / G2
 16:57
18:14
 46:38
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Michalickova

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 24–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 0.3 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 453 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 418 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Error: −1:17 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 46:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Total: 46:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 23.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 29 Therese Feuersinger
AUT
+6 s
+35 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:24
18:13
 46:38
Show details
Prediction details: Therese Feuersinger

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 22–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -29.1 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 238 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 236 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 46:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:08 (40.8 km/h)
Run: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Total: 46:38
32 / 36 Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto
COL
+31 s
+44 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:15
17:10
 46:39
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 17–45
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -12.6 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 196 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 194 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Total: 46:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 21.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 27 Brea Roderick
NZL
+19 s
+35 s
G2 / G1
 17:16
18:04
 46:40
Show details
Prediction details: Brea Roderick

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 24–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -16.0 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 250 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 224 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 46:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 46:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 43 Ana Carballo Gómez
ESP
+16 s
+34 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:18
17:34
 46:42
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Carballo Gómez

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 15–39
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -17.6 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 46:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Total: 46:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 37 Verena Steinhauser
ITA
+35 s
+47 s
G3 / G2
 17:04
17:16
 46:45
Show details
Prediction details: Verena Steinhauser

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 27–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -12.3 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 485 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 9.1 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 446 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Total: 46:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 24.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 40 Shanae Williams
RSA
+29 s
+43 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:22
17:15
 46:46
Show details
Prediction details: Shanae Williams

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 30–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -14.0 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 197 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 154 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 46:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Total: 46:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 19.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 50 Barbara De Koning
NED
+31 s
+34 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:22
18:32
 46:46
Show details
Prediction details: Barbara De Koning

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 26–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -2.9 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 417 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 418 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 46:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Total: 46:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 21.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 21 Robin Dreijling
NED
+22 s
+33 s
G2 / G1
 17:30
17:04
 46:54
Show details
Prediction details: Robin Dreijling

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 28–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -11.5 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 46:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 46:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 11.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 16 Cathia Schär
SUI
+46 s
+48 s
G3 / G1
 17:15
16:57
 46:56
Show details
Prediction details: Cathia Schär

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 24–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -1.7 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 351 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 307 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 17:15 (3:27 / km)
Total: 46:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 36.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 30 Annika Koch
GER
+24 s
+34 s
G2 / G1
 17:32
18:22
 46:56
Show details
Prediction details: Annika Koch

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 30–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -10.5 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 439 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 398 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 46:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Total: 46:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 13.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 28 Vittoria Lopes
BRA
+11 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 17:35
17:56
 46:59
Show details
Prediction details: Vittoria Lopes

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 21–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: -0.2 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 290 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 264 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Total: 46:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 41 Tjasa Vrtacic
SLO
+29 s
+56 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:35
17:25
 46:59
Show details
Prediction details: Tjasa Vrtacic

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 33–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -26.7 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Total: 46:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 19.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 39 Isla Britton
CAN
+49 s
+51 s
G3 / G2
 17:25
17:24
 47:06
Show details
Prediction details: Isla Britton

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 19–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 47:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Total: 47:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 39.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 7 Roksana Slupek
POL
+27 s
+33 s
G2 / G1
 17:44
16:21
 47:08
Show details
Prediction details: Roksana Slupek

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 35–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 37

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -6.1 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 283 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 282 Duelle, Korrektur -1.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 47:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Total: 47:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 17.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 48 Madalena Amaral Almeida
POR
+50 s
+65 s
G3 / G2
 17:34
18:15
 47:15
Show details
Prediction details: Madalena Amaral Almeida

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 32–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -14.9 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 178 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 178 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 47:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Total: 47:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 40.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 44 Matylda Wojakiewicz
POL
+24 s
+59 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:52
17:50
 47:16
Show details
Prediction details: Matylda Wojakiewicz

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 27–51
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -34.6 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 47:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: 47:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 14.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 45 Katrien Maes
BEL
+32 s
+57 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:17
17:57
 47:41
Show details
Prediction details: Katrien Maes

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 43–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -25.5 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 47:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Total: 47:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 21.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 34 Mako Hiraizumi
JPN
+44 s
+40 s
G3 / G1
 18:10
18:43
 47:51
Show details
Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 44–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 3.8 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 196 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 195 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 47:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Total: 47:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 34 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 51 Sarika Nakayama
JPN
+22 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:27
19:28
 47:51
Show details
Prediction details: Sarika Nakayama

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 43–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -19.6 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 306 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 304 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 47:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Total: 47:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 12.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 49 Miyu Sakai
JPN
+31 s
+36 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:34
18:29
 47:58
Show details
Prediction details: Miyu Sakai

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 28–52
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 49
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -4.7 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 235 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (19 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 235 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Total: 47:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 21.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 52 Petra Kurikova
CZE
+44 s
+56 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:26
18:38
 48:07
Show details
Prediction details: Petra Kurikova

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 47–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -11.8 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 235 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 233 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:48 (41.1 km/h)
Run: 18:26 (3:41 / km)
Total: 48:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 34.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 35 Kanae Takenaka
JPN
+14 s
+14 s
G2 / G1
 18:47
18:47
 48:11
Show details
Prediction details: Kanae Takenaka

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 45–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: -0.2 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 210 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (38 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (32 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 210 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 48:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:52 (41.2 km/h)
Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km)
Total: 48:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +9.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.