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Elite Men

25.07.2026 London GBR
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Championship Series London

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 83/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 19 früheren Rennen und 511 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 98.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 19 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error11.5
Mean swim error7.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.41 km/h
Correct bike groups24/51
No history0
Within the 80% range58.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Matthew Hauser
AUS
+6 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:07
14:09
 41:54
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 8:25
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 2.5 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 408 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.5 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:07 (2:49 / km)
Historical basis: 2:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:43 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 363 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:09 (2:50 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 41:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:25 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:07 (2:49 / km)
Total: 41:54
2 / 2 Vasco Vilaca
POR
+21 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:10
14:09
 41:57
Show details
Prediction details: Vasco Vilaca

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 8:40
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 10.8 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 509 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:10 (2:50 / km)
Historical basis: 2:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 462 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:09 (2:50 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 41:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:10 (2:50 / km)
Total: 41:57
3 / 14 Alex Yee
GBR
+43 s
+36 s
G2 / G3
 13:40
13:52
 41:59
Show details
Prediction details: Alex Yee

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–21
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 6.5 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 256 Duelle, Korrektur -0.91 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 13:40 (2:44 / km)
Historical basis: 2:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 210 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:52 (2:46 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 41:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 13:40 (2:44 / km)
Total: 41:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 15.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 20 Connor Bentley
GBR
+23 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 14:17
14:21
 42:04
Show details
Prediction details: Connor Bentley

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–18
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 5.6 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 295 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:17 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 260 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:21 (2:52 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:42 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:17 (2:51 / km)
Total: 42:04
5 / 11 Miguel Hidalgo
BRA
+12 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:19
14:46
 42:06
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Hidalgo

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–18
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:31
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 2.4 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 453 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:19 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 403 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:31 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:19 (2:52 / km)
Total: 42:06
6 / 5 Alberto Gonzalez Garcia
ESP
+20 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:29
14:35
 42:16
Show details
Prediction details: Alberto Gonzalez Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–20
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 8:39
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 382 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:29 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 371 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:39 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:29 (2:54 / km)
Total: 42:16
7 / 18 Michael Gar
GBR
+12 s
+21 s
G1 / G2
 14:34
14:14
 42:21
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Gar

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 1–24
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:31
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -9.5 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:34 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:14 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:31 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:34 (2:55 / km)
Total: 42:21
8 / 43 Vetle Bergsvik Thorn
NOR
+17 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 14:37
15:59
 42:24
Show details
Prediction details: Vetle Bergsvik Thorn

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -35

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:36
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -2.4 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 468 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 459 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Error: −1:22 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 42:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:36 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Total: 42:24
9 / 40 Harry Leleu
GBR
+27 s
+25 s
G1 / G2
 14:39
15:20
 42:26
Show details
Prediction details: Harry Leleu

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–33
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 1.7 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 332 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:39 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 331 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 42:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:39 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:26
10 / 31 Oliver Conway
GBR
+27 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 14:40
14:45
 42:27
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Conway

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–31
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 8.4 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 158 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:27
11 / 15 Callum McClusky
AUS
+34 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:09
14:12
 42:28
Show details
Prediction details: Callum McClusky

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–18
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 483 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:09 (2:50 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 453 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:12 (2:50 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:09 (2:50 / km)
Total: 42:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 7 Luke Willian
AUS
+26 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:41
14:34
 42:28
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Willian

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–33
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 8:45
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 16.9 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 497 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:41 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 498 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:34 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:45 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:41 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:28
13 / 8 Tom Richard
FRA
+20 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:43
14:40
 42:30
Show details
Prediction details: Tom Richard

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–27
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 8:39
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 15.1 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 405 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:43 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 363 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:39 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:43 (2:57 / km)
Total: 42:30
14 / 3 Csongor Lehmann
HUN
+12 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:44
14:17
 42:31
Show details
Prediction details: Csongor Lehmann

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 7–20
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:31
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: -0.4 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 487 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 454 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:17 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:31 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Total: 42:31
15 / 44 Ben Dijkstra
TRI
+21 s
+21 s
G1 / G4
 14:44
15:07
 42:31
Show details
Prediction details: Ben Dijkstra

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 8–28
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -29

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 8:40
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -0.2 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 193 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 187 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 42:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Total: 42:31
16 / 37 Gergely Kiss
HUN
+17 s
+18 s
G1 / G3
 14:46
14:59
 42:33
Show details
Prediction details: Gergely Kiss

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 9–28
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:36
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -0.8 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 249 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 249 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:59 (3:00 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 42:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:36 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Total: 42:33
17 / 27 Diego Moya
CHI
+14 s
+15 s
G1 / G2
 14:48
14:46
 42:35
Show details
Prediction details: Diego Moya

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 10–25
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -1.5 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 413 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 377 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 42:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:33 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Total: 42:35
18 / 12 Max Stapley
GBR
+17 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:48
14:52
 42:35
Show details
Prediction details: Max Stapley

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 8–24
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:36
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 356 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 356 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:36 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Total: 42:35
19 / 24 Ricardo Batista
POR
+32 s
+18 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:20
14:31
 42:39
Show details
Prediction details: Ricardo Batista

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 4–35
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 14.2 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 418 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:20 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 412 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:31 (2:54 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:20 (2:52 / km)
Total: 42:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 4.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 32 João Nuno Batista
POR
+24 s
+31 s
G1 / G2
 14:52
14:49
 42:39
Show details
Prediction details: João Nuno Batista

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 14–36
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -7.1 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 169 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:49 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:43 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Total: 42:39
21 / 33 Arnaud Mengal
BEL
+39 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:21
14:56
 42:40
Show details
Prediction details: Arnaud Mengal

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 8–36
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 405 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:21 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 406 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 42:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:21 (2:52 / km)
Total: 42:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 11.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 34 Sergio Baxter Cabrera
ESP
+39 s
+34 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:21
15:03
 42:40
Show details
Prediction details: Sergio Baxter Cabrera

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 9–28
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 4.5 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 254 Duelle, Korrektur -0.77 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:21 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 254 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 42:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:21 (2:52 / km)
Total: 42:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 11.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 17 Tom Lerno
FRA
+12 s
+26 s
G1 / G2
 14:53
14:20
 42:40
Show details
Prediction details: Tom Lerno

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 4–31
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:31
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -14.5 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:20 (2:52 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 42:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:31 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:40
24 / 10 Seth Rider
USA
+26 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:53
14:42
 42:40
Show details
Prediction details: Seth Rider

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 14–36
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 8:45
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 15.4 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 448 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 397 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:45 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:40
25 / 16 Antonio Serrat Seoane
ESP
+39 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:23
14:19
 42:42
Show details
Prediction details: Antonio Serrat Seoane

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 9–45
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 548 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:23 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 505 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:19 (2:52 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:23 (2:53 / km)
Total: 42:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 11.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 21 Braxton Legg
USA
+25 s
+25 s
G1 / G2
 15:01
14:27
 42:48
Show details
Prediction details: Braxton Legg

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 18–36
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -0.5 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:27 (2:53 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 42:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 42:48
27 / 19 Izan Edo Aguilar
ESP
+43 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:37
14:16
 42:56
Show details
Prediction details: Izan Edo Aguilar

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 15–46
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 10.2 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 164 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:16 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Total: 42:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 15.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 42 Miguel Tiago Silva
POR
+12 s
+33 s
G1 / G2
 15:09
15:54
 42:56
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Tiago Silva

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 14–33
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:31
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -21.2 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 271 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 271 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 42:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:31 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Total: 42:56
29 / 47 Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger
FRA
+44 s
+40 s
G2 / G5
 14:39
15:30
 42:58
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 17–49
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 4.2 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 169 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:39 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 169 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 42:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:39 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 16.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 13 Márk Dévay
HUN
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:14
15:12
 43:01
Show details
Prediction details: Márk Dévay

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 20–34
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:19
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 564 Duelle, Korrektur 0.65 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.5 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 533 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:12 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:19 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:01
31 / 26 Roberto Sanchez Mantecon
ESP
+45 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:44
14:40
 43:03
Show details
Prediction details: Roberto Sanchez Mantecon

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 21–46
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 499 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 453 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 18 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 4 Morgan Pearson
USA
+29 s
+12 s
G2 / G1
 14:45
14:25
 43:04
Show details
Prediction details: Morgan Pearson

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 12–31
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 16.7 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 302 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 271 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:25 (2:53 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 1.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 9 Jules Rethoret
FRA
+7 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:18
14:40
 43:05
Show details
Prediction details: Jules Rethoret

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 20–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 8:26
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 4.5 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:26 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:05
34 / 28 Takumi Hojo
JPN
+25 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
 15:23
14:43
 43:10
Show details
Prediction details: Takumi Hojo

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 27–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 9.2 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 487 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 487 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:43 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:10
35 / 49 Darr Smith
USA
+25 s
+37 s
G1 / G5
 15:25
15:57
 43:12
Show details
Prediction details: Darr Smith

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 30–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -12.0 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 380 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 375 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:12
36 / 38 Takuto Oshima
JPN
+24 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
 15:26
15:20
 43:13
Show details
Prediction details: Takuto Oshima

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 31–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 160 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:43 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:13
37 / 39 Chase McQueen
USA
+9 s
+28 s
G1 / G2
 15:29
15:21
 43:16
Show details
Prediction details: Chase McQueen

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 28–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 8:28
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -19.5 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 367 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 362 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:28 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:16
38 / 29 Sebastian Wernersen
NOR
+25 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 15:29
14:43
 43:16
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Wernersen

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 34–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 5.3 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 298 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 291 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:43 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:16
39 / 36 Saxon Morgan
NZL
+26 s
+27 s
G1 / G2
 15:30
15:14
 43:17
Show details
Prediction details: Saxon Morgan

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 30–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 8:45
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -1.5 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 412 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 381 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:45 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:17
40 / 6 Tjebbe Kaindl
AUT
+29 s
+19 s
G2 / G1
 14:59
14:35
 43:18
Show details
Prediction details: Tjebbe Kaindl

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 19–40
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 34

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 9.8 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 555 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 47.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:59 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 525 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 14:59 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 1.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 23 Jack Willis
GBR
+33 s
+30 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:04
14:35
 43:23
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Willis

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 27–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 2.9 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 399 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 370 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 5.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 30 Matthew Wright
BAR
+29 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:24
14:47
 43:43
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Wright

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 26–47
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 4.1 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:47 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 22 Ian Pennekamp
NED
+32 s
+34 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:26
14:35
 43:45
Show details
Prediction details: Ian Pennekamp

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 36–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -2.1 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 271 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 271 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 43:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 4.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 48 Carol Popa
ROU
+36 s
+35 s
G2 / G5
 15:32
15:49
 43:51
Show details
Prediction details: Carol Popa

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 25–50
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 8.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 35 Zsombor Dévay
HUN
+33 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:35
15:11
 43:54
Show details
Prediction details: Zsombor Dévay

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 35–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 10.9 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 255 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 249 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:35 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 5.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 41 Andres Gras
CHI
+37 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:39
15:39
 43:58
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Gras

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 33–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 5.8 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 9.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 25 Kazushi Jozuka
JPN
+42 s
+30 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:44
14:38
 44:03
Show details
Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 37–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 197 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 46.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 201 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Error: +1:06 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 44:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 15 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 50 Genta Uchida
JPN
+29 s
+25 s
G2 / G5
 15:47
16:16
 44:06
Show details
Prediction details: Genta Uchida

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 41–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 4.1 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 188 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 189 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 45 Bence Bicsák
HUN
+37 s
+36 s
G2 / G5
 15:48
14:51
 44:07
Show details
Prediction details: Bence Bicsák

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 42–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 1.4 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 479 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 438 Duelle, Korrektur -1.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:57 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 44:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 10 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 51 Niels Van Lanen
NED
+45 s
+38 s
G2 / G4
 15:56
16:34
 44:15
Show details
Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 44–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 6.7 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:34 (44.5 km/h)
Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Total: 44:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 17.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +27.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 46 Thomas Windischbauer
AUT
+20 s
+7 s
G1 / G2
 16:38
16:35
 44:25
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Windischbauer

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 39–51
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 46
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 8:39
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 13.1 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (30 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (30 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:39 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:20 (44.9 km/h)
Run: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Total: 44:25