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Elite Men

25.04.2026 Samarkand UZB
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Championship Series Samarkand

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.04.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 82/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 21 früheren Rennen und 413 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 37.7 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 25.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 92.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 21 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.2
Mean swim error17.3 s
Mean bike-speed error0.40 km/h
Correct bike groups14/40
No history0
Within the 80% range55.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Vasco Vilaca
POR
+24 s
+31 s
G1 / G2
 29:38
30:09
 1:24:58
Show details
Prediction details: Vasco Vilaca

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 17:27
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -7.1 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 277 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:38 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 277 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:09 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:31 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:27 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 29:38 (2:58 / km)
Total: 1:24:58
2 / 20 João Nuno Batista
POR
+6 s
+44 s
G1 / G3
 29:41
31:34
 1:25:01
Show details
Prediction details: João Nuno Batista

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 17:09
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -38.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 81 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:41 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:34 (3:09 / km)
Error: −1:53 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:09 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 29:41 (2:58 / km)
Total: 1:25:01
3 / 9 David Cantero Del Campo
ESP
+45 s
+77 s
G2 / G3
 29:34
30:18
 1:25:02
Show details
Prediction details: David Cantero Del Campo

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–19
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 17:48
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: -32.5 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 216 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:34 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 215 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:18 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:48 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 29:34 (2:57 / km)
Total: 1:25:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:29
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 19.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 38 John Reed
USA
+34 s
+83 s
G2 / G4
 29:50
31:23
 1:25:18
Show details
Prediction details: John Reed

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -34

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 17:37
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: -49.0 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 270 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:50 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 261 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:23 (3:08 / km)
Error: −1:33 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:37 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 29:50 (2:59 / km)
Total: 1:25:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Oliver Conway
GBR
+27 s
+54 s
G2 / G3
 29:54
29:36
 1:25:22
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Conway

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–12
Top-10 probability: 85 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 17:30
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -27.5 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:54 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:36 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:30 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 29:54 (2:59 / km)
Total: 1:25:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
6 / 7 Hugo Milner
GBR
+37 s
+43 s
G2 / G3
 29:59
29:40
 1:25:27
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Milner

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–15
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 17:40
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -6.2 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 204 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:59 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 203 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:40 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:40 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 29:59 (3:00 / km)
Total: 1:25:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 11.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 2 Henry Graf
GER
+18 s
+10 s
G1 / G2
 30:32
30:14
 1:25:52
Show details
Prediction details: Henry Graf

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 17:21
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 7.6 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:32 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:14 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:21 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 30:32 (3:03 / km)
Total: 1:25:52
8 / 21 Diego Moya
CHI
+26 s
+28 s
G2 / G2
correct 		30:26
32:28
 1:25:54
Show details
Prediction details: Diego Moya

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 17:29
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -2.0 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 224 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:26 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 219 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:28 (3:15 / km)
Error: −2:02 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:29 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 30:26 (3:03 / km)
Total: 1:25:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
9 / 28 Callum McClusky
AUS
+48 s
+82 s
G2 / G3
 30:28
32:40
 1:25:56
Show details
Prediction details: Callum McClusky

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–26
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 17:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +82 s
Fehler: -34.3 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 293 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:28 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 292 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:40 (3:16 / km)
Error: −2:12 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 30:28 (3:03 / km)
Total: 1:25:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 22.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 4 Csongor Lehmann
HUN
+19 s
+5 s
G1 / G2
 30:39
30:26
 1:25:59
Show details
Prediction details: Csongor Lehmann

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 17:22
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 271 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:39 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 278 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:26 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:22 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 30:39 (3:04 / km)
Total: 1:25:59
11 / 8 Ricardo Batista
POR
+32 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		30:37
30:43
 1:26:05
Show details
Prediction details: Ricardo Batista

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–18
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 17:35
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 254 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:37 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 247 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:43 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:35 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 30:37 (3:04 / km)
Total: 1:26:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 6.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 34 Harry Leleu
GBR
+37 s
+72 s
G2 / G3
 30:51
33:29
 1:26:19
Show details
Prediction details: Harry Leleu

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 6–29
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 17:40
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: -34.9 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 213 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:51 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 212 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:29 (3:21 / km)
Error: −2:38 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:40 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 30:51 (3:05 / km)
Total: 1:26:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
13 / 32 Bence Bicsák
HUN
+41 s
+46 s
G2 / G3
 31:00
33:09
 1:26:28
Show details
Prediction details: Bence Bicsák

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–28
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 17:44
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -4.9 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 275 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:00 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 275 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:09 (3:19 / km)
Error: −2:09 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:44 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 31:00 (3:06 / km)
Total: 1:26:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 16.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 12 Miguel Tiago Silva
POR
+5 s
+24 s
G1 / G2
 31:19
31:24
 1:26:39
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Tiago Silva

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 7–27
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 17:08
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -18.7 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 190 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:19 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 190 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:24 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:08 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 31:19 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:26:39
15 / 3 Charles Paquet
CAN
+35 s
+30 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:14
30:17
 1:26:42
Show details
Prediction details: Charles Paquet

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 6–30
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 17:38
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 244 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:14 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 240 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:17 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:57 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:38 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 31:14 (3:07 / km)
Total: 1:26:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 13 Tim Hellwig
GER
+37 s
+41 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:17
31:40
 1:26:45
Show details
Prediction details: Tim Hellwig

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–26
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 17:40
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -3.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:17 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:40 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:40 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 31:17 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:26:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 12.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 26 Takumi Hojo
JPN
+39 s
+49 s
G2 / G3
 31:18
32:19
 1:26:46
Show details
Prediction details: Takumi Hojo

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 10–31
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 17:42
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -10.4 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 312 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:18 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 312 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:19 (3:14 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:42 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 31:18 (3:08 / km)
Total: 1:26:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 13.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 27 Seth Rider
USA
+12 s
+25 s
G1 / G2
 31:28
33:18
 1:26:48
Show details
Prediction details: Seth Rider

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 9–24
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 17:15
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -12.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 231 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 3.6 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:28 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 226 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:18 (3:20 / km)
Error: −1:50 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:15 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 31:28 (3:09 / km)
Total: 1:26:48
19 / 23 Tjebbe Kaindl
AUT
+33 s
+45 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:37
32:46
 1:27:05
Show details
Prediction details: Tjebbe Kaindl

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 15–30
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 17:36
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -12.0 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 319 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:37 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 320 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:46 (3:17 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:36 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 31:37 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:27:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
20 / 11 Yanis Seguin
FRA
+22 s
+40 s
G1 / G2
 31:48
31:19
 1:27:08
Show details
Prediction details: Yanis Seguin

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 15–26
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 17:25
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -18.0 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 183 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:48 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 183 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:19 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:25 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 31:48 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:27:08
21 / 16 Denis Kolobrodov
RUS
+44 s
+58 s
G2 / G3
 31:47
31:09
 1:27:15
Show details
Prediction details: Denis Kolobrodov

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 14–36
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 17:47
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -14.3 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:47 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:09 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:47 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 31:47 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:27:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
22 / 15 Nicola Azzano
ITA
+21 s
+22 s
G1 / G2
 31:57
31:58
 1:27:17
Show details
Prediction details: Nicola Azzano

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 14–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 17:24
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -1.1 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 293 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:57 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 286 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:24 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 31:57 (3:12 / km)
Total: 1:27:17
23 / 25 Grigory Antipov
AIN
+51 s
+56 s
G2 / G3
 31:50
32:13
 1:27:18
Show details
Prediction details: Grigory Antipov

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 18–36
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 17:54
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -4.7 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:50 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:13 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:54 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 31:50 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:27:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 26.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 29 James Corbett
TRI
+27 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:51
33:25
 1:27:19
Show details
Prediction details: James Corbett

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 11–28
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 17:30
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -14.6 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:51 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:25 (3:21 / km)
Error: −1:34 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:30 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 31:51 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:27:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 2.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 14 Kenji Nener
JPN
+36 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:51
31:54
 1:27:19
Show details
Prediction details: Kenji Nener

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 11–34
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 17:39
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 8.5 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 281 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:51 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 282 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:39 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 31:51 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:27:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
26 / 33 Darr Smith
USA
+37 s
+57 s
G2 / G3
 32:05
33:15
 1:27:33
Show details
Prediction details: Darr Smith

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 11–35
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 17:40
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -20.1 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 263 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:05 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 258 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:15 (3:20 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:40 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 32:05 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:27:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 11.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 6 Tom Richard
FRA
+23 s
+36 s
G1 / G2
 32:13
30:31
 1:27:33
Show details
Prediction details: Tom Richard

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 17–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 17:26
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -13.5 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 214 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:13 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 214 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:31 (3:03 / km)
Error: +1:42 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:26 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 32:13 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:27:33
28 / 40 Chase McQueen
USA
+8 s
+33 s
G1 / G1
correct 		32:33
37:25
 1:27:53
Show details
Prediction details: Chase McQueen

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 18–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 17:11
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -24.8 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 221 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 44.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:33 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 217 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:25 (3:45 / km)
Error: −4:52 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:11 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 32:33 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:27:53
29 / 24 Jonas Osterholt
GER
+38 s
+29 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:27
32:54
 1:27:55
Show details
Prediction details: Jonas Osterholt

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 23–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 17:41
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 8.9 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:27 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:54 (3:17 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:41 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 32:27 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:27:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
30 / 10 Ian Pennekamp
NED
+60 s
+37 s
G3 / G2
 30:46
31:10
 1:28:09
Show details
Prediction details: Ian Pennekamp

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 15–36
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 18:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 22.6 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:46 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:10 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:21 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 30:46 (3:05 / km)
Total: 1:28:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
31 / 22 Maciej Bruzdziak
POL
+16 s
+19 s
G1 / G2
 32:54
32:38
 1:28:14
Show details
Prediction details: Maciej Bruzdziak

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 21–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 17:19
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -3.2 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.6 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:54 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:38 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:19 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 32:54 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:28:14
32 / 30 Aoba Yasumatsu
JPN
+61 s
+47 s
G3 / G3
correct 		30:58
32:44
 1:28:21
Show details
Prediction details: Aoba Yasumatsu

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 13–37
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 350 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 43.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:58 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 346 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:44 (3:16 / km)
Error: −1:46 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:04 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:21 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 30:58 (3:06 / km)
Total: 1:28:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
33 / 18 Gergely Kiss
HUN
+18 s
+32 s
G1 / G2
 33:04
32:10
 1:28:24
Show details
Prediction details: Gergely Kiss

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 11–39
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 17:21
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -14.3 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 166 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:04 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 164 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:10 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:21 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 33:04 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:28:24
34 / 17 Jérémy Quindos
UZB
+42 s
+19 s
G2 / G2
correct 		33:18
32:09
 1:28:46
Show details
Prediction details: Jérémy Quindos

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 27–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 17:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 23.2 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:18 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:09 (3:13 / km)
Error: +1:09 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:28:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 33:18 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:28:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
35 / 37 Ren Sato
JPN
+62 s
+82 s
G3 / G3
correct 		31:44
34:11
 1:29:07
Show details
Prediction details: Ren Sato

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 22–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +82 s
Fehler: -20.4 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 374 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 11.8 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:44 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 374 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:11 (3:25 / km)
Error: −2:27 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:05 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:21 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 31:44 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:29:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
36 / 31 Takuto Oshima
JPN
+23 s
+34 s
G1 / G2
 33:47
33:54
 1:29:07
Show details
Prediction details: Takuto Oshima

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 30–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 17:26
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -10.7 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 79 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:47 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 102 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:26 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 33:47 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:29:07
37 / 36 Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger
FRA
+73 s
+123 s
G4 / G4
correct 		30:50
30:47
 1:29:08
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Hueber-Moosbrugger

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 21–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +73 s
Time: 18:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +123 s
Fehler: -49.6 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:50 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 96 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:47 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:16 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:04 (42.2 km/h)
Run: 30:50 (3:05 / km)
Total: 1:29:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:28
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 48.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 39 Gjalt Panjer
NED
+28 s
+74 s
G2 / G3
 34:09
35:33
 1:29:37
Show details
Prediction details: Gjalt Panjer

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 32–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 17:31
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: -46.3 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:09 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 89 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:33 (3:33 / km)
Error: −1:24 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:29:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:31 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:37 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 34:09 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:29:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
39 / 19 Michael Gar
GBR
+3 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
 35:04
32:12
 1:30:24
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Gar

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 36–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 17:06
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -12.9 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (24 people)
Speed: 44.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:04 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -1.69 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:12 (3:13 / km)
Error: +2:52 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:06 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:56 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 35:04 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:30:24
40 / 35 Kazushi Jozuka
JPN
+55 s
+81 s
G3 / G3
correct 		34:23
33:42
 1:31:46
Show details
Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 38–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 17:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: -26.4 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:23 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:42 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:21 (42.8 km/h)
Run: 34:23 (3:26 / km)
Total: 1:31:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.