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Elite Women

25.04.2026 Samarkand UZB
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Championship Series Samarkand

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.04.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 70/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.7
Mean swim error21.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.01 km/h
Correct bike groups13/38
No history0
Within the 80% range71.1 %
Details
1 / 1 Beth Potter
GBR
+12 s
+35 s
G1 / G2
 33:20
33:36
 1:33:51
Show details
Prediction details: Beth Potter

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–9
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 19:04
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -23.2 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 277 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:20 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 278 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:36 (3:22 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:04 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 33:20 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:33:51
2 / 33 Lisa Tertsch
GER
+8 s
+48 s
G1 / G4
 33:37
38:19
 1:34:08
Show details
Prediction details: Lisa Tertsch

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 19:00
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -40.2 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 358 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:37 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 358 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:19 (3:50 / km)
Error: −4:42 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:00 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 33:37 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:34:08
3 / 5 Taylor Spivey
USA
+14 s
+3 s
G1 / G2
 33:44
35:13
 1:34:15
Show details
Prediction details: Taylor Spivey

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 19:06
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 290 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:44 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 291 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:13 (3:31 / km)
Error: −1:29 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:06 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 33:44 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:34:15
4 / 7 Jolien Vermeylen
BEL
+13 s
+5 s
G1 / G2
 34:10
35:24
 1:34:41
Show details
Prediction details: Jolien Vermeylen

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–14
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 19:05
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 379 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:10 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 375 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:24 (3:32 / km)
Error: −1:14 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:05 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 34:10 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:34:41
5 / 24 Gwen Jorgensen
USA
+31 s
+41 s
G2 / G3
 33:49
36:02
 1:34:43
Show details
Prediction details: Gwen Jorgensen

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–15
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 19:23
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -9.9 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 182 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:49 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 179 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: −2:13 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:23 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 33:49 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:34:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 13.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 10 Tilly Anema
GBR
+14 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 34:14
35:38
 1:34:45
Show details
Prediction details: Tilly Anema

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 19:06
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 6.8 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:14 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:38 (3:34 / km)
Error: −1:24 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:06 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 34:14 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:34:45
7 / 22 Diana Isakova
AIN
+30 s
+50 s
G2 / G3
 34:06
35:04
 1:35:00
Show details
Prediction details: Diana Isakova

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 3–19
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 19:22
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -20.3 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:06 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:04 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:22 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 34:06 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:35:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 11.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 2 Leonie Periault
FRA
+31 s
+46 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:08
33:46
 1:35:02
Show details
Prediction details: Leonie Periault

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 19:23
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -15.1 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 271 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:08 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 284 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:46 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:23 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 34:08 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:35:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 13 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 3 Jeanne Lehair
LUX
+22 s
+44 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:31
34:43
 1:35:25
Show details
Prediction details: Jeanne Lehair

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 2–18
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 19:14
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -22.5 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 320 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:31 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 321 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:43 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:14 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 34:31 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:35:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 3.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 14 Maria Tomé
POR
+29 s
+52 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:37
36:22
 1:35:31
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Tomé

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–22
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 19:21
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -22.7 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 247 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 241 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:22 (3:38 / km)
Error: −1:45 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:21 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:35:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 11.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 11 Jessica Fullagar
GBR
+21 s
+45 s
G2 / G2
correct 		34:38
35:42
 1:35:32
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Fullagar

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 19:13
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -24.2 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 143 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:38 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 143 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:42 (3:34 / km)
Error: −1:04 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:13 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 34:38 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:35:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 2.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 6 Bianca Seregni
ITA
+11 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 35:05
35:18
 1:35:36
Show details
Prediction details: Bianca Seregni

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 8–16
Top-10 probability: 38 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 19:03
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 299 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:05 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 295 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:18 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:03 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 35:05 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:35:36
13 / 18 Márta Kropkó
HUN
+11 s
+4 s
G1 / G2
 35:17
36:55
 1:35:48
Show details
Prediction details: Márta Kropkó

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 6–22
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 19:03
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:17 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:55 (3:42 / km)
Error: −1:38 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:03 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 35:17 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:35:48
14 / 8 Sian Rainsley
GBR
+23 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:08
35:25
 1:36:02
Show details
Prediction details: Sian Rainsley

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 8–21
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 19:15
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -19.2 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 192 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:08 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 188 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:25 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:15 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 35:08 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:36:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 4.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 9 Tanja Neubert
GER
+55 s
+52 s
G4 / G2
 33:22
35:43
 1:36:05
Show details
Prediction details: Tanja Neubert

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 3–23
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 19:47
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 3.1 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 222 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:22 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 218 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:43 (3:34 / km)
Error: −2:21 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:47 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:45 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 33:22 (3:20 / km)
Total: 1:36:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 37.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 4 Georgia Taylor-Brown
GBR
+43 s
+50 s
G3 / G1
 34:19
35:31
 1:36:11
Show details
Prediction details: Georgia Taylor-Brown

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 6–23
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 19:35
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:19 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 175 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:31 (3:33 / km)
Error: −1:12 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:35 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:04 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 34:19 (3:26 / km)
Total: 1:36:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 25.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 36 Heidi Juránková
CZE
+23 s
+52 s
G2 / G4
 35:18
42:16
 1:36:12
Show details
Prediction details: Heidi Juránková

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 11–21
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 19:15
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: -28.7 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:18 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:16 (4:14 / km)
Error: −6:58 / −0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:15 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 35:18 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:36:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 5.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 12 Tilda Månsson
SWE
+40 s
+29 s
G3 / G2
 34:30
35:45
 1:36:22
Show details
Prediction details: Tilda Månsson

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 9–23
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 11.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 221 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:30 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 217 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:45 (3:35 / km)
Error: −1:15 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:32 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:04 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 34:30 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:36:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 22.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 20 Olivia Mathias
GBR
+11 s
+50 s
G1 / G2
 35:51
37:22
 1:36:22
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Mathias

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 14–22
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 19:03
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -38.8 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 212 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 85 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:51 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 212 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:22 (3:44 / km)
Error: −1:31 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:03 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 35:51 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:36:22
20 / 15 Laura Lindemann
GER
+24 s
+5 s
G2 / G2
correct 		35:53
36:20
 1:36:47
Show details
Prediction details: Laura Lindemann

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 15–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 19:16
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 19.2 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 202 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:53 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 200 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:20 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:16 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 35:53 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:36:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 6.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 27 Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal
MEX
+21 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:12
40:30
 1:37:06
Show details
Prediction details: Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 11–28
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 19:13
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -21.2 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 296 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 6.8 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:12 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 297 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:30 (4:03 / km)
Error: −4:18 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:13 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 36:12 (3:37 / km)
Total: 1:37:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 2.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 19 Kirsten Kasper
USA
+29 s
+12 s
G2 / G2
correct 		36:17
37:06
 1:37:11
Show details
Prediction details: Kirsten Kasper

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 19–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 19:21
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 16.8 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 232 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:17 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 233 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:06 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:21 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 36:17 (3:38 / km)
Total: 1:37:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 10.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 30 Danielle Orie
USA
+39 s
+51 s
G3 / G4
 35:22
37:11
 1:37:14
Show details
Prediction details: Danielle Orie

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 15–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 19:31
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -11.8 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:22 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:11 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:49 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:31 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:04 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 35:22 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:37:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 21.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 16 Verena Steinhauser
ITA
+52 s
+47 s
G4 / G2
 34:55
36:18
 1:37:38
Show details
Prediction details: Verena Steinhauser

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 15–32
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 19:44
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 5.3 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 341 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:55 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 335 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:18 (3:38 / km)
Error: −1:23 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:44 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:45 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 34:55 (3:30 / km)
Total: 1:37:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 34.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 29 Zuzana Michalickova
SVK
+43 s
+89 s
G3 / G4
 35:56
37:15
 1:37:48
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Michalickova

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 19–33
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 19:35
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: -46.1 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 276 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:56 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 266 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:15 (3:44 / km)
Error: −1:19 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:35 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:04 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 35:56 (3:36 / km)
Total: 1:37:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 25 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 25 Ilaria Zane
ITA
+35 s
+51 s
G3 / G3
correct 		36:25
36:50
 1:38:17
Show details
Prediction details: Ilaria Zane

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 20–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 19:27
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -16.0 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 219 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:25 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 218 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:50 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:27 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:04 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 36:25 (3:38 / km)
Total: 1:38:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 17.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 31 Diana Dunajska
SVK
+29 s
+97 s
G2 / G4
 37:26
37:47
 1:38:20
Show details
Prediction details: Diana Dunajska

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 24–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 19:21
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +97 s
Fehler: -68.5 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.97 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:26 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:47 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:21 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 37:26 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:38:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 10.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 17 Erika Ackerlund
USA
+29 s
+51 s
G2 / G2
correct 		37:27
36:34
 1:38:21
Show details
Prediction details: Erika Ackerlund

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 13–36
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 19:21
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: -22.1 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 250 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:27 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 250 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:34 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:21 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 37:27 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:38:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 11 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 13 Robin Dreijling
NED
+12 s
+26 s
G1 / G2
 37:54
36:08
 1:38:25
Show details
Prediction details: Robin Dreijling

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 26–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 19:04
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -14.1 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.66 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:54 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 88 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:08 (3:37 / km)
Error: +1:46 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:04 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 37:54 (3:47 / km)
Total: 1:38:25
30 / 23 Vittoria Lopes
BRA
+47 s
+3 s
G3 / G2
 36:38
38:04
 1:38:30
Show details
Prediction details: Vittoria Lopes

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 21–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 19:39
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 44.0 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 158 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:38 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 158 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:04 (3:48 / km)
Error: −1:26 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:39 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:04 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 36:38 (3:40 / km)
Total: 1:38:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 29.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 28 Marta Pintanel Raymundo
ESP
+53 s
+49 s
G4 / G3
 36:01
38:09
 1:38:44
Show details
Prediction details: Marta Pintanel Raymundo

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 22–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 19:45
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 3.5 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 265 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 265 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:09 (3:49 / km)
Error: −2:08 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:45 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:45 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 36:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: 1:38:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 34.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 26 Babette Rosman
NED
+27 s
+47 s
G2 / G2
correct 		38:13
40:21
 1:39:07
Show details
Prediction details: Babette Rosman

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 24–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 19:19
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -20.0 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 89 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:13 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:21 (4:02 / km)
Error: −2:08 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:19 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:23 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 38:13 (3:49 / km)
Total: 1:39:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 9.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 34 Romana Gajdošová
SVK
+48 s
+79 s
G3 / G4
 37:37
38:29
 1:39:29
Show details
Prediction details: Romana Gajdošová

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 29–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 19:40
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: -30.9 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 179 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:37 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 169 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:29 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:52 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:40 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:04 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 37:37 (3:46 / km)
Total: 1:39:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 30.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 32 Mako Hiraizumi
JPN
+58 s
+77 s
G4 / G4
correct 		37:01
38:10
 1:39:44
Show details
Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 28–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 19:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: -18.9 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 24.9 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:01 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:10 (3:49 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:45 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 37:01 (3:42 / km)
Total: 1:39:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 40.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 38 Kanae Takenaka
JPN
+14 s
+46 s
G1 / G4
 39:38
43:59
 1:40:09
Show details
Prediction details: Kanae Takenaka

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 27–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 19:06
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -32.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:38 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 43:59 (4:24 / km)
Error: −4:21 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:06 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:00:17 (40.0 km/h)
Run: 39:38 (3:58 / km)
Total: 1:40:09
36 / 21 Selina Klamt
GER
+35 s
+18 s
G3 / G2
 38:49
37:41
 1:40:41
Show details
Prediction details: Selina Klamt

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 30–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 19:27
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 17.4 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 205 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 2 (23 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:49 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 201 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:41 (3:46 / km)
Error: +1:08 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:27 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:04 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 38:49 (3:53 / km)
Total: 1:40:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 17.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 37 Ji Yeon Kim
KOR
+52 s
+91 s
G4 / G4
correct 		39:04
42:57
 1:41:47
Show details
Prediction details: Ji Yeon Kim

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 33–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 19:44
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: -38.9 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:04 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:57 (4:18 / km)
Error: −3:53 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:44 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:01:45 (39.0 km/h)
Run: 39:04 (3:54 / km)
Total: 1:41:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 34.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 35 Rosa Elena Martinez Melchior
VEN
+83 s
+50 s
G5 / G4
 37:07
39:48
 1:42:15
Show details
Prediction details: Rosa Elena Martinez Melchior

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 36–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +83 s
Time: 20:15
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: 33.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 24.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (10 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:07 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:48 (3:59 / km)
Error: −2:41 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:15 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:45 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 37:07 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:42:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 65.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.