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Elite Men

16.05.2026 Yokohama JPN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Championship Series Yokohama

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 76/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 10 früheren Rennen und 235 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 42.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 16.05.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 97.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 10 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.7
Mean swim error10.2 s
Mean bike-speed error0.82 km/h
Correct bike groups16/41
No history0
Within the 80% range53.7 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Miguel Hidalgo
BRA
+11 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		29:40
30:30
 1:21:20
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Hidalgo

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 17:46
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 7.1 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 241 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:40 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 234 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:30 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:21:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:46 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 29:40 (2:58 / km)
Total: 1:21:20
2 / 5 Alex Yee
GBR
+34 s
+37 s
G2 / G2
correct 		29:35
29:08
 1:21:43
Show details
Prediction details: Alex Yee

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–8
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 18:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -2.6 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 29:35 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:08 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:21:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:30 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 29:35 (2:58 / km)
Total: 1:21:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 35 John Reed
USA
+27 s
+40 s
G1 / G5
 30:10
29:56
 1:21:50
Show details
Prediction details: John Reed

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–15
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -32

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -12.9 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 253 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:10 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 241 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:56 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:21:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 30:10 (3:01 / km)
Total: 1:21:50
4 / 3 Luke Willian
AUS
+20 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		30:11
30:36
 1:21:51
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Willian

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 17:55
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 315 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:11 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 315 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:36 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:21:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:55 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 30:11 (3:01 / km)
Total: 1:21:51
5 / 1 Matthew Hauser
AUS
+12 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		30:18
30:12
 1:21:58
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 1–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 17:47
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 227 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:18 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 227 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:12 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:21:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:47 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 30:18 (3:02 / km)
Total: 1:21:58
6 / 4 Vetle Bergsvik Thorn
NOR
+15 s
+5 s
G1 / G1
correct 		30:18
30:41
 1:21:58
Show details
Prediction details: Vetle Bergsvik Thorn

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 17:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 247 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:18 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 247 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:41 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:21:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 30:18 (3:02 / km)
Total: 1:21:58
7 / 8 Jack Willis
GBR
+25 s
+39 s
G1 / G2
 30:45
30:24
 1:22:25
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Willis

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–12
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 18:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -14.1 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 263 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:45 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 263 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:24 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:22:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 30:45 (3:04 / km)
Total: 1:22:25
8 / 21 Michał Oliwa
POL
+27 s
+38 s
G1 / G2
 30:48
31:33
 1:22:28
Show details
Prediction details: Michał Oliwa

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -11.4 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 179 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:48 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur 0.99 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:33 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:22:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 30:48 (3:05 / km)
Total: 1:22:28
9 / 31 Reese Vannerson
USA
+47 s
+39 s
G3 / G2
 30:21
32:54
 1:22:56
Show details
Prediction details: Reese Vannerson

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–23
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 18:22
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 7.5 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:21 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:54 (3:17 / km)
Error: −2:33 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:22:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:22 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:45 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 30:21 (3:02 / km)
Total: 1:22:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 17.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 12 Denis Kolobrodov
RUS
+37 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct 		30:49
30:43
 1:22:57
Show details
Prediction details: Denis Kolobrodov

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 2–27
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 18:12
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 2.1 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:49 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:43 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:22:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:12 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:30 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 30:49 (3:05 / km)
Total: 1:22:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 28 Brandon Copeland
AUS
+38 s
+44 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:10
32:24
 1:23:18
Show details
Prediction details: Brandon Copeland

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–23
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 18:13
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -6.3 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 338 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:10 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 338 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:24 (3:14 / km)
Error: −1:14 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:13 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:30 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 31:10 (3:07 / km)
Total: 1:23:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
12 / 7 Martin Sobey
CAN
+48 s
+42 s
G3 / G2
 30:48
30:04
 1:23:23
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Sobey

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–21
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 18:23
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 5.9 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 265 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 30:48 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 258 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:04 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:23 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:45 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 30:48 (3:05 / km)
Total: 1:23:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
13 / 32 Valentin Wernz
GER
+28 s
+42 s
G1 / G2
 31:47
33:31
 1:23:27
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Wernz

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 12–23
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 18:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -14.5 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 279 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:47 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 279 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:31 (3:21 / km)
Error: −1:44 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 31:47 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:23:27
14 / 40 Kenji Nener
JPN
+29 s
+44 s
G1 / G4
 31:51
34:18
 1:23:31
Show details
Prediction details: Kenji Nener

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–23
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -15.3 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 280 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:51 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 280 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:18 (3:26 / km)
Error: −2:27 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:04 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 31:51 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:23:31
15 / 20 Blake Bullard
USA
+17 s
+3 s
G1 / G2
 31:54
31:28
 1:23:34
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Bullard

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 4–34
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 17:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:54 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:28 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 31:54 (3:11 / km)
Total: 1:23:34
16 / 9 Tim Hellwig
GER
+30 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:33
30:30
 1:23:41
Show details
Prediction details: Tim Hellwig

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 9–24
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -12.0 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:33 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:30 (3:03 / km)
Error: +1:03 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:05 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:30 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 31:33 (3:09 / km)
Total: 1:23:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 0.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 10 Braxton Legg
USA
+21 s
+37 s
G1 / G2
 32:11
30:37
 1:23:51
Show details
Prediction details: Braxton Legg

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 12–25
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 17:56
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -16.4 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:11 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:37 (3:04 / km)
Error: +1:34 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:56 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:11 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:23:51
18 / 33 Erwin Vanderplancke
BEL
+42 s
+43 s
G3 / G2
 31:37
33:53
 1:24:12
Show details
Prediction details: Erwin Vanderplancke

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–29
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 18:17
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 184 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:37 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 183 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:53 (3:23 / km)
Error: −2:16 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:17 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:45 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 31:37 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:24:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
19 / 13 Izan Edo Aguilar
ESP
+38 s
+43 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:06
30:47
 1:24:14
Show details
Prediction details: Izan Edo Aguilar

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 18:13
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -5.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:06 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:47 (3:05 / km)
Error: +1:19 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:13 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:30 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 32:06 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:24:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 8.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 25 Sebastian Wernersen
NOR
+27 s
+40 s
G1 / G2
 32:34
32:05
 1:24:14
Show details
Prediction details: Sebastian Wernersen

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 18:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -13.0 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 154 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:34 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:05 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:34 (3:15 / km)
Total: 1:24:14
21 / 16 Takumi Hojo
JPN
+31 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:08
31:04
 1:24:16
Show details
Prediction details: Takumi Hojo

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 13–29
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -4.0 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 331 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:08 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 331 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:04 (3:06 / km)
Error: +1:04 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:06 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:30 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 32:08 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:24:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
22 / 27 Chris Ziehmer
GER
+30 s
+40 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:10
32:17
 1:24:18
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Ziehmer

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 10–35
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -10.1 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 87 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:10 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:17 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:05 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:30 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 32:10 (3:13 / km)
Total: 1:24:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 0.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 19 Jonas Osterholt
GER
+29 s
+25 s
G1 / G2
 32:45
31:27
 1:24:25
Show details
Prediction details: Jonas Osterholt

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:45 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:27 (3:09 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:04 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:45 (3:16 / km)
Total: 1:24:25
24 / 14 James Corbett
TRI
+25 s
+42 s
G1 / G2
 32:49
30:52
 1:24:29
Show details
Prediction details: James Corbett

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 4–39
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 18:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -17.4 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:49 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:52 (3:05 / km)
Error: +1:57 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:49 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:24:29
25 / 36 Koki Yamamoto
JPN
+24 s
+36 s
G1 / G2
 32:52
35:05
 1:24:32
Show details
Prediction details: Koki Yamamoto

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 18–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 17:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -11.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 97 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:52 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:05 (3:31 / km)
Error: −2:13 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:52 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:24:32
26 / 15 Max Stapley
GBR
+11 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		32:59
32:48
 1:24:39
Show details
Prediction details: Max Stapley

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 16–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 17:46
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 201 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:59 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 201 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:48 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:46 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 32:59 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:24:39
27 / 26 Darr Smith
USA
+31 s
+37 s
G2 / G2
correct 		32:36
32:13
 1:24:44
Show details
Prediction details: Darr Smith

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 17–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -6.0 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 249 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:36 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 242 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:13 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:06 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:30 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 32:36 (3:16 / km)
Total: 1:24:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 1.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 11 Aoba Yasumatsu
JPN
+47 s
+40 s
G3 / G2
 32:15
30:38
 1:24:50
Show details
Prediction details: Aoba Yasumatsu

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 10–37
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 18:22
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 393 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:15 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 386 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:38 (3:04 / km)
Error: +1:37 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:22 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:45 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 32:15 (3:14 / km)
Total: 1:24:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
29 / 41 Kauê Willy
BRA
+33 s
+46 s
G2 / G4
 32:46
35:22
 1:24:54
Show details
Prediction details: Kauê Willy

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 16–38
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 18:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -12.6 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:46 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:22 (3:32 / km)
Error: −2:36 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:30 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 32:46 (3:17 / km)
Total: 1:24:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 34 Genta Uchida
JPN
+29 s
+37 s
G1 / G2
 33:14
34:00
 1:24:54
Show details
Prediction details: Genta Uchida

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 25–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -7.9 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:14 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:00 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:04 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 33:14 (3:19 / km)
Total: 1:24:54
31 / 29 Bradley Course
AUS
+43 s
+46 s
G3 / G2
 32:22
32:30
 1:24:57
Show details
Prediction details: Bradley Course

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 17–35
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 18:18
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:22 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 83 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:30 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:18 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:45 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 32:22 (3:14 / km)
Total: 1:24:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 13.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 23 Zsombor Dévay
HUN
+31 s
+43 s
G2 / G2
correct 		33:01
31:40
 1:25:09
Show details
Prediction details: Zsombor Dévay

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 22–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 18:06
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -11.7 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 153 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:01 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:40 (3:10 / km)
Error: +1:21 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:06 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:30 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 33:01 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:25:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 30 Chase McQueen
USA
+8 s
+36 s
G1 / G2
 33:50
32:39
 1:25:30
Show details
Prediction details: Chase McQueen

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 10–40
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 17:43
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -28.0 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 228 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:50 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 220 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:39 (3:16 / km)
Error: +1:11 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:43 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 33:50 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:25:30
34 / 39 Kenshin Mori
JPN
+45 s
+43 s
G3 / G4
 32:57
33:52
 1:25:32
Show details
Prediction details: Kenshin Mori

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 28–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 18:20
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 2.4 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:57 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 93 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:52 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:20 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:45 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 32:57 (3:18 / km)
Total: 1:25:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 16 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 24 Takuto Oshima
JPN
+13 s
+40 s
G1 / G2
 33:53
31:45
 1:25:33
Show details
Prediction details: Takuto Oshima

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 26–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 17:48
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -26.9 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 157 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:53 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:45 (3:11 / km)
Error: +2:08 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:48 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 33:53 (3:23 / km)
Total: 1:25:33
36 / 22 Kazushi Jozuka
JPN
+51 s
+45 s
G3 / G2
 33:40
31:33
 1:26:15
Show details
Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 31–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 18:26
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 5.5 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 202 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 43.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:40 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 202 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:33 (3:09 / km)
Error: +2:07 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:26 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:45 (43.7 km/h)
Run: 33:40 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:26:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 21.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 37 Grigory Antipov
AIN
+52 s
+44 s
G4 / G4
correct 		32:04
33:18
 1:26:29
Show details
Prediction details: Grigory Antipov

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 16–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 18:27
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 8.2 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 12.6 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 32:04 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:18 (3:20 / km)
Error: −1:14 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:27 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 53:33 (42.3 km/h)
Run: 32:04 (3:12 / km)
Total: 1:26:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:04
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 22.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 6 Brayden Mercer
AUS
+10 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:55
31:49
 1:26:35
Show details
Prediction details: Brayden Mercer

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 34–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 32

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 17:45
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:55 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 135 Duelle, Korrektur -1.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:49 (3:11 / km)
Error: +3:06 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:45 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 34:55 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:26:35
39 / 17 Gjalt Panjer
NED
+28 s
+42 s
G1 / G2
 35:17
31:23
 1:26:57
Show details
Prediction details: Gjalt Panjer

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 37–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 18:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -14.2 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:17 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:23 (3:08 / km)
Error: +3:54 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:11 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 35:17 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:26:57
40 / 18 Aram Michell Peñaflor Moysen
MEX
+65 s
+42 s
G5 / G2
 31:43
31:17
 1:27:24
Show details
Prediction details: Aram Michell Peñaflor Moysen

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 19–40
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 18:40
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 22.8 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 240 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (29 people)
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:43 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 233 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:17 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:40 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 54:36 (41.5 km/h)
Run: 31:43 (3:10 / km)
Total: 1:27:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 35.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 38 Satoshi Iwamoto
JPN
+38 s
+45 s
G2 / G4
 35:27
33:39
 1:27:35
Show details
Prediction details: Satoshi Iwamoto

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 38–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 18:13
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -7.1 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:27 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:39 (3:22 / km)
Error: +1:48 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:13 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 51:30 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 35:27 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:27:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:05
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 8.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.