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Elite Women

16.05.2026 Yokohama JPN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Championship Series Yokohama

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 16.05.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 82/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 22 früheren Rennen und 287 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 35.3 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 25.04.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 91.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 22 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.9
Mean swim error28.7 s
Mean bike-speed error0.94 km/h
Correct bike groups17/34
No history0
Within the 80% range44.1 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Beth Potter
GBR
+23 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		33:35
32:45
 1:30:56
Show details
Prediction details: Beth Potter

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 15.5 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 225 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 33:35 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 225 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:45 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:53 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 33:35 (3:22 / km)
Total: 1:30:56
2 / 8 Taylor Spivey
USA
+19 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:00
34:07
 1:31:21
Show details
Prediction details: Taylor Spivey

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 18:49
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 13.4 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 241 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 241 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:07 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:49 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 34:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:31:21
3 / 4 Lisa Tertsch
GER
+14 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:01
33:40
 1:31:22
Show details
Prediction details: Lisa Tertsch

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 18:44
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 12.9 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 286 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.9 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:01 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 286 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:40 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:44 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 34:01 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:31:22
4 / 5 Emma Lombardi
FRA
+19 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:01
33:44
 1:31:22
Show details
Prediction details: Emma Lombardi

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 18:49
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 8.9 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 184 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:01 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 184 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:44 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:49 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 34:01 (3:24 / km)
Total: 1:31:22
5 / 21 Richelle Hill
AUS
+25 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:28
36:18
 1:31:49
Show details
Prediction details: Richelle Hill

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 18:55
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 15.2 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 68 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 4.9 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:18 (3:38 / km)
Error: −1:50 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:55 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:31:49
6 / 3 Jeanne Lehair
LUX
+30 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:32
33:12
 1:31:53
Show details
Prediction details: Jeanne Lehair

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 19:00
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 28.1 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 253 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:32 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 253 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:12 (3:19 / km)
Error: +1:20 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:31:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:00 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 34:32 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:31:53
7 / 10 Sian Rainsley
GBR
+30 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		34:47
34:20
 1:32:08
Show details
Prediction details: Sian Rainsley

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 19:00
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 30.4 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 186 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:47 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 182 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:20 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:00 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 34:47 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:32:08
8 / 6 Diana Isakova
AIN
+45 s
+8 s
G3 / G1
 34:09
33:40
 1:32:13
Show details
Prediction details: Diana Isakova

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–13
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 19:15
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 36.7 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:09 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:40 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:15 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 34:09 (3:25 / km)
Total: 1:32:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 32.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 25 Annika Koch
GER
+32 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:09
37:50
 1:32:30
Show details
Prediction details: Annika Koch

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–21
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 19:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 18.6 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 219 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:09 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 219 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:50 (3:47 / km)
Error: −2:41 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 35:09 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:32:30
10 / 1 Tilda Månsson
SWE
+32 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:19
32:47
 1:32:40
Show details
Prediction details: Tilda Månsson

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 19:02
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 24.2 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 174 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:19 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 171 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:47 (3:17 / km)
Error: +2:32 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:02 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 35:19 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:32:40
11 / 14 Kate Waugh
GBR
+39 s
+4 s
G3 / G1
 34:37
35:07
 1:32:41
Show details
Prediction details: Kate Waugh

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 19:09
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 35.2 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 179 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 179 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:07 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:09 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 34:37 (3:28 / km)
Total: 1:32:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:06
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13 Djenyfer Arnold
BRA
+34 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:31
34:41
 1:32:52
Show details
Prediction details: Djenyfer Arnold

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 9–19
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 19:04
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 23.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 187 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:31 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 185 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:41 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:32:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:04 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 35:31 (3:33 / km)
Total: 1:32:52
13 / 19 Kelly Wetteland
USA
+19 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		35:49
36:03
 1:33:10
Show details
Prediction details: Kelly Wetteland

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 6–22
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 18:49
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 19.4 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:49 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:03 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:10
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:49 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 35:49 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:33:10
14 / 22 Manami Hayashi
JPN
+40 s
+3 s
G3 / G1
 35:15
36:31
 1:33:19
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 8–20
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 19:10
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 37.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 169 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:15 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 169 Duelle, Korrektur 0.85 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:31 (3:39 / km)
Error: −1:16 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:10 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 35:15 (3:31 / km)
Total: 1:33:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 28.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 11 Jessica Fullagar
GBR
+42 s
+9 s
G3 / G1
 35:15
34:35
 1:33:19
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Fullagar

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 9–21
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 19:12
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 33.3 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:15 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:35 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:12 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 35:15 (3:32 / km)
Total: 1:33:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 30.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 9 Laura Lindemann
GER
+6 s
+13 s
G2 / G1
 36:11
34:19
 1:33:35
Show details
Prediction details: Laura Lindemann

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–19
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 18:36
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -7.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 189 Duelle, Korrektur 0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.9 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:11 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 189 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:19 (3:26 / km)
Error: +1:52 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:36 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:18 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 36:11 (3:37 / km)
Total: 1:33:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:33
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 30 Heidi Juránková
CZE
+44 s
+25 s
G3 / G2
 35:46
37:08
 1:33:50
Show details
Prediction details: Heidi Juránková

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 13–25
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 19:14
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 18.6 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:46 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:08 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:22 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:14 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 35:46 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:33:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 31.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 7 Gwen Jorgensen
USA
+39 s
+6 s
G3 / G1
 35:48
33:42
 1:33:52
Show details
Prediction details: Gwen Jorgensen

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 10–21
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 19:09
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 32.6 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 170 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 35:48 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 168 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:42 (3:22 / km)
Error: +2:06 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:09 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 35:48 (3:35 / km)
Total: 1:33:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:06
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 2.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 17 Kirsten Kasper
USA
+23 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		36:32
35:32
 1:33:53
Show details
Prediction details: Kirsten Kasper

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 15–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 18:53
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 21.1 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 195 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:32 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 195 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:32 (3:33 / km)
Error: +1:00 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:33:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:53 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 36:32 (3:39 / km)
Total: 1:33:53
20 / 20 Cecilia Santamaria Surroca
ESP
+18 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		36:44
36:14
 1:34:05
Show details
Prediction details: Cecilia Santamaria Surroca

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 16–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 18:48
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 130 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:44 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:14 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:48 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 36:44 (3:40 / km)
Total: 1:34:05
21 / 31 Danielle Orie
USA
+45 s
+10 s
G3 / G3
correct 		36:12
35:27
 1:34:16
Show details
Prediction details: Danielle Orie

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 13–28
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 19:15
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 35.2 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:12 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:27 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:15 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 36:12 (3:37 / km)
Total: 1:34:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 33.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 12 Franka Rust
GER
+35 s
+27 s
G1 / G1
correct 		37:13
34:42
 1:34:34
Show details
Prediction details: Franka Rust

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 19–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 19:05
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 8.3 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:13 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:42 (3:28 / km)
Error: +2:31 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:05 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 37:13 (3:43 / km)
Total: 1:34:34
23 / 16 Erika Ackerlund
USA
+48 s
+8 s
G3 / G1
 36:31
35:30
 1:34:35
Show details
Prediction details: Erika Ackerlund

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 16–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 19:18
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 39.5 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 209 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:31 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 209 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:30 (3:33 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:18 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 36:31 (3:39 / km)
Total: 1:34:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:06
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 11.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 18 Rebecca Beti
SUI
+47 s
+10 s
G3 / G1
 36:38
35:37
 1:34:42
Show details
Prediction details: Rebecca Beti

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 19–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 19:17
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 37.2 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:38 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:37 (3:34 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:34:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:17 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 36:38 (3:40 / km)
Total: 1:34:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:06
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 11.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 32 Mariana Vargem
POR
+79 s
+40 s
G5 / G3
 34:32
37:11
 1:35:13
Show details
Prediction details: Mariana Vargem

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 12–27
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +79 s
Time: 19:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 39.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 13.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:32 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:11 (3:43 / km)
Error: −2:39 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:35:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 59:22 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 34:32 (3:27 / km)
Total: 1:35:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 67.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 33 Miyu Sakai
JPN
+49 s
+4 s
G3 / G2
 37:56
39:53
 1:36:00
Show details
Prediction details: Miyu Sakai

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 26–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 19:19
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 45.3 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 186 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 10.9 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:56 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 186 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:53 (3:59 / km)
Error: −1:57 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:19 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 37:56 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:36:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 37.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 15 Julia Bröcker
GER
+49 s
+29 s
G3 / G1
 38:01
35:17
 1:36:05
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Bröcker

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 24–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 19:19
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 19.8 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:01 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.76 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:17 (3:32 / km)
Error: +2:44 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:19 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 38:01 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:36:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:06
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 13 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 26 Sarika Nakayama
JPN
+43 s
+5 s
G3 / G1
 38:05
38:51
 1:36:09
Show details
Prediction details: Sarika Nakayama

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 20–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 19:13
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 37.5 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 208 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:05 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 207 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:51 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:13 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 38:05 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:36:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 30.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 28 Iana Chenskaia
AIN
+45 s
+3 s
G3 / G1
 38:46
39:15
 1:36:50
Show details
Prediction details: Iana Chenskaia

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 27–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 19:15
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 42.4 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.87 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:46 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:15 (3:56 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 1:36:50
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 19:15 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 38:46 (3:53 / km)
Total: 1:36:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:05
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 9.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 24 Mako Hiraizumi
JPN
+66 s
+6 s
G4 / G1
 37:26
37:04
 1:37:20
Show details
Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 25–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 19:36
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 59.7 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:26 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 138 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:04 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:36 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:48 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 37:26 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:37:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 53.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 23 Erica Hawley
BER
+66 s
+13 s
G4 / G1
 37:31
36:43
 1:37:25
Show details
Prediction details: Erica Hawley

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 24–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 19:36
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 52.8 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 130 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 13.2 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:31 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:43 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:37:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:36 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:48 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 37:31 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:37:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:06
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 30 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 27 Kanae Takenaka
JPN
+24 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		41:52
39:14
 1:39:13
Show details
Prediction details: Kanae Takenaka

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 28–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 18:54
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 23.7 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:52 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 133 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:14 (3:55 / km)
Error: +2:38 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:54 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 56:46 (39.9 km/h)
Run: 41:52 (4:11 / km)
Total: 1:39:13
33 / 34 Minori Ikeno
JPN
+44 s
+7 s
G3 / G3
correct 		41:49
42:31
 1:39:53
Show details
Prediction details: Minori Ikeno

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 32–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 19:14
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 36.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (14 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:49 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:31 (4:15 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:14 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 57:15 (39.5 km/h)
Run: 41:49 (4:11 / km)
Total: 1:39:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 31.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 29 Himeka Sato
JPN
+60 s
+8 s
G4 / G1
 40:38
40:00
 1:40:32
Show details
Prediction details: Himeka Sato

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 32–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 19:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 52.2 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 10.9 s
Gap behind: 5.5 s
Result: Group 1 (31 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:38 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 40:00 (4:00 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:30 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 58:48 (38.5 km/h)
Run: 40:38 (4:04 / km)
Total: 1:40:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 18:42
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 48.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +11.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.