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Elite Men

18.07.2026 William Hawrelak Park CAN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Cup Edmonton

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 84/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 19 früheren Rennen und 511 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.5 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 19 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error12.3
Mean swim error10.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.48 km/h
Correct bike groups37/58
No history0
Within the 80% range62.1 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 36 Louis Vitiello
FRA
+20 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:28
16:14
 42:37
Show details
Prediction details: Louis Vitiello

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -35

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 7.0 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:28 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Error: −1:46 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 42:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:28 (2:54 / km)
Total: 42:37
2 / 39 Nicola Azzano
ITA
+18 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:29
16:46
 42:38
Show details
Prediction details: Nicola Azzano

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–14
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -37

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 8.2 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 332 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:29 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 326 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Error: −2:17 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 42:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:29 (2:54 / km)
Total: 42:38
3 / 15 Simon Westermann
SUI
+23 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:38
15:29
 42:47
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Westermann

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 84 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 202 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 192 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 42:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:47
4 / 3 Reese Vannerson
USA
+29 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:39
14:45
 42:48
Show details
Prediction details: Reese Vannerson

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–25
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 11.7 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 182 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:39 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 187 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:39 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:48
5 / 2 Tyler Mislawchuk
CAN
+21 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:40
14:46
 42:49
Show details
Prediction details: Tyler Mislawchuk

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–13
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 199 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 191 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:49
6 / 7 Martin Sobey
CAN
+32 s
+42 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:40
14:51
 42:49
Show details
Prediction details: Martin Sobey

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–23
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -9.6 s
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 277 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 272 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:49
7 / 23 Dylan McCullough
NZL
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:45
15:46
 42:54
Show details
Prediction details: Dylan McCullough

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–14
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 8:29
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 159 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 10.5 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 152 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 42:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:29 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Total: 42:54
8 / 5 Gergely Kiss
HUN
+13 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:45
14:50
 42:54
Show details
Prediction details: Gergely Kiss

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–14
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 199 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 198 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:50 (2:58 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:42 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Total: 42:54
9 / 11 Brandon Pye
GBR
+24 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:56
15:15
 43:05
Show details
Prediction details: Brandon Pye

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–31
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 15.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:05
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Total: 43:05
10 / 17 Mitch Kolkman
NED
+27 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:56
15:34
 43:05
Show details
Prediction details: Mitch Kolkman

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–29
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 15.9 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 178 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 178 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:56 (2:59 / km)
Total: 43:05
11 / 41 Gjalt Panjer
NED
+24 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:57
17:25
 43:06
Show details
Prediction details: Gjalt Panjer

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–27
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 178 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 178 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Error: −2:28 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 43:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Total: 43:06
12 / 33 Miguel Espuna Larramona
ITA
+22 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:58
15:57
 43:07
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Espuna Larramona

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–27
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 3.9 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 43:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:07
13 / 16 Euan De Nigro
ITA
+32 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:02
15:32
 43:11
Show details
Prediction details: Euan De Nigro

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 7–38
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 22.5 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 198 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 194 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:11
14 / 8 Tjebbe Kaindl
AUT
+28 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:03
15:00
 43:12
Show details
Prediction details: Tjebbe Kaindl

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–31
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 18.0 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 243 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 232 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:12
15 / 20 Aram Michell Peñaflor Moysen
MEX
+30 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:03
15:31
 43:12
Show details
Prediction details: Aram Michell Peñaflor Moysen

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 7–40
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 8.7 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 257 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 252 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:12
16 / 48 Takuto Oshima
JPN
+15 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 15:06
16:47
 43:15
Show details
Prediction details: Takuto Oshima

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 11–23
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -32

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 176 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 184 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Error: −1:41 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 43:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:15
17 / 21 Kenji Nener
JPN
+23 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:07
15:40
 43:16
Show details
Prediction details: Kenji Nener

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 11–34
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 6.6 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 183 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 183 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:16
18 / 24 Oscar Coggins
HKG
+20 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:08
15:49
 43:17
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Coggins

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 8–28
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 6.2 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:17
19 / 1 Solomon Okrafo-Smart
GBR
+26 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:11
14:44
 43:20
Show details
Prediction details: Solomon Okrafo-Smart

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 13–42
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 13.8 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:20
20 / 42 Darcy Williams
AUS
+24 s
+27 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:12
17:26
 43:21
Show details
Prediction details: Darcy Williams

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 14–31
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -3.0 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:12 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 1.17 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: −2:14 / −0:27 / km
Overall prediction: 43:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:12 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:21
21 / 4 Nathan Grayel
FRA
+37 s
+35 s
G2 / G1
 14:44
14:51
 43:23
Show details
Prediction details: Nathan Grayel

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 5–32
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 4.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 51 Zach Leachman
USA
+49 s
+61 s
G2 / G3
 14:44
16:31
 43:23
Show details
Prediction details: Zach Leachman

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 7–46
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -29

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -11.6 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -1.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Error: −1:47 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 43:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 14:44 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 17 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 30 Baptiste Passemard
FRA
+11 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:16
16:01
 43:25
Show details
Prediction details: Baptiste Passemard

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 2–45
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 8:40
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 4.5 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.5 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:25
24 / 26 Samuele Angelini
ITA
+28 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:18
15:54
 43:27
Show details
Prediction details: Samuele Angelini

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 10–40
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 10.3 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:27
25 / 22 Ian Pennekamp
NED
+29 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:19
15:38
 43:28
Show details
Prediction details: Ian Pennekamp

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 16–36
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 17.6 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:38 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:28
26 / 49 Aurelien Jem
FRA
+35 s
+18 s
G2 / G1
 14:50
19:29
 43:29
Show details
Prediction details: Aurelien Jem

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 6–42
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 16.6 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:50 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Error: −4:39 / −0:56 / km
Overall prediction: 43:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 14:50 (2:58 / km)
Total: 43:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 9 Lukas Pertl
AUT
+34 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 14:51
15:06
 43:30
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Pertl

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 7–40
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 56 Gegner:innen, 215 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 56 Gegner:innen, 210 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Total: 43:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 1.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 25 Blake Bullard
USA
+27 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:21
15:50
 43:30
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Bullard

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 6–47
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 21.0 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:30
29 / 13 Alexis Lherieau
SUI
+48 s
+32 s
G2 / G1
 14:52
15:22
 43:31
Show details
Prediction details: Alexis Lherieau

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 11–45
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 15.6 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 157 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Total: 43:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 15.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 31 Theo Marti
LUX
+30 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:25
15:58
 43:34
Show details
Prediction details: Theo Marti

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 19–47
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 84 Duelle, Korrektur 0.94 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:34
31 / 18 Takumi Hojo
JPN
+23 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:29
15:32
 43:38
Show details
Prediction details: Takumi Hojo

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 20–41
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 21.2 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 270 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 44.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 269 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:38
32 / 12 James Corbett
TRI
+26 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:34
15:27
 43:43
Show details
Prediction details: James Corbett

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 23–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 158 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 157 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:43
33 / 27 Lucas Cambresy
LUX
+24 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:37
15:55
 43:46
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Cambresy

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 23–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 3.8 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 227 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 221 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:46
34 / 38 Jayden Schofield
AUS
+30 s
+27 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:37
16:35
 43:46
Show details
Prediction details: Jayden Schofield

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 25–53
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 2.5 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 141 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 141 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 43:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:46
35 / 37 Kazushi Jozuka
JPN
+41 s
+17 s
G2 / G1
 15:10
16:26
 43:49
Show details
Prediction details: Kazushi Jozuka

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 15–50
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 23.6 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 204 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 210 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:26 (3:17 / km)
Error: −1:16 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 43:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 8.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 47 David Lang
LUX
+38 s
+40 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:13
16:38
 43:52
Show details
Prediction details: David Lang

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 19–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -1.8 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km)
Error: −1:25 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 43:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 5.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 10 Andree Buc
CHI
+40 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 15:14
15:06
 43:53
Show details
Prediction details: Andree Buc

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 20–50
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 189 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 185 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 35 Kauê Willy
BRA
+26 s
+36 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:47
16:17
 43:56
Show details
Prediction details: Kauê Willy

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 25–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -10.1 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 183 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 46.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 177 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:17 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:56
39 / 40 Ben Fäh
SUI
+16 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:49
16:59
 43:58
Show details
Prediction details: Ben Fäh

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 24–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:45
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 43:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:45 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Total: 43:58
40 / 50 Daniel Ubilla Sabada
CHI
+39 s
+20 s
G2 / G1
 15:22
19:24
 44:01
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Ubilla Sabada

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 12–52
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 19.0 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 88 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Error: −4:02 / −0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 44:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Total: 44:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 6.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 14 Andreas Nikolajsen
DEN
+20 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:54
15:23
 44:03
Show details
Prediction details: Andreas Nikolajsen

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 23–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 2.3 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Total: 44:03
42 / 53 Andres Gras
CHI
+43 s
+25 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:28
17:56
 44:07
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Gras

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 28–53
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 53
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 17.7 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Error: −2:28 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 44:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 10.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 28 Erik Yamir Ramos Croda
MEX
+40 s
+22 s
G2 / G1
 15:29
15:54
 44:08
Show details
Prediction details: Erik Yamir Ramos Croda

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 24–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 18.2 s
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 218 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 215 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 44:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 34 Jordan Rieck
AUS
+19 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:01
16:07
 44:10
Show details
Prediction details: Jordan Rieck

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 33–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -2.4 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:07 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:10
45 / 29 Leandre Binette
CAN
+28 s
+31 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:03
16:00
 44:12
Show details
Prediction details: Leandre Binette

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 28–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 80 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Total: 44:12
46 / 19 Jelle Kaindl
AUT
+34 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 15:37
15:34
 44:16
Show details
Prediction details: Jelle Kaindl

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 4–54
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 18.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -1.28 %, Sicherheit 54 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:37 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 52 Tiago Muñoz
ARG
+47 s
+47 s
G2 / G3
 15:45
16:42
 44:24
Show details
Prediction details: Tiago Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 34–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -0.3 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 41.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 44:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 14.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 58 Tristen Jones
CAN
+33 s
+61 s
G2 / G4
 15:46
19:33
 44:25
Show details
Prediction details: Tristen Jones

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 14–53
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 58
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -28.2 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:33 (3:55 / km)
Error: −3:47 / −0:46 / km
Overall prediction: 44:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 0.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 32 Antonio Bravo Neto
BRA
+38 s
+22 s
G2 / G1
 15:50
16:01
 44:29
Show details
Prediction details: Antonio Bravo Neto

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 33–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 16.3 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 184 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:50 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 5.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 46 Itamar Levanon
ISR
+50 s
+62 s
G2 / G3
 15:54
15:47
 44:33
Show details
Prediction details: Itamar Levanon

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 43–57
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: -12.1 s
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 263 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 251 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:19 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Total: 44:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 17.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 56 Aiden Longcroft-Harris
CAN
+12 s
+17 s
G1 / G4
 16:27
18:21
 44:36
Show details
Prediction details: Aiden Longcroft-Harris

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 28–56
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 56
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -5.3 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:27 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 129 Duelle, Korrektur -0.62 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Error: −1:54 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 44:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:41 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 16:27 (3:17 / km)
Total: 44:36
52 / 45 Philip Pertl
AUT
+34 s
+39 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:59
16:28
 44:38
Show details
Prediction details: Philip Pertl

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 26–53
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 45
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -4.6 s
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 214 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 215 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:28 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 55 Vinicius Avi Santana
BRA
+54 s
+51 s
G3 / G6
 15:07
16:08
 44:48
Show details
Prediction details: Vinicius Avi Santana

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 19–57
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 55
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 3.1 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur -0.60 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 44:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:31 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Total: 44:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 21.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 6 Sullivan Middaugh
USA
+70 s
+44 s
G3 / G1
 15:13
15:01
 44:54
Show details
Prediction details: Sullivan Middaugh

Placement

Prediction: 54
80% range: 34–56
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 48

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 25.8 s
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 193 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 13.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 46.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 193 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:31 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Total: 44:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 37.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 54 Cheung Sing Nicholas Tsang
HKG
+34 s
+48 s
G2 / G3
 16:31
18:05
 45:10
Show details
Prediction details: Cheung Sing Nicholas Tsang

Placement

Prediction: 55
80% range: 47–56
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 54
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -14.5 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 176 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 176 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: −1:34 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 45:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 16:31 (3:18 / km)
Total: 45:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 1.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 43 Tzu I Pan
TPE
+35 s
+22 s
G2 / G1
 16:40
17:53
 45:19
Show details
Prediction details: Tzu I Pan

Placement

Prediction: 56
80% range: 47–57
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 12.9 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 189 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 44.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 188 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 45:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:49 (44.0 km/h)
Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Total: 45:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
57 / 44 Sangmin Park
KOR
+25 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:11
17:58
 45:20
Show details
Prediction details: Sangmin Park

Placement

Prediction: 57
80% range: 52–58
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (36 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 44.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (46 people)
Speed: 45.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:47 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (44.3 km/h)
Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Total: 45:20
58 / 57 Taegi Kim
KOR
+56 s
+61 s
G3 / G4
 16:15
18:58
 45:56
Show details
Prediction details: Taegi Kim

Placement

Prediction: 58
80% range: 53–58
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 57
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -4.7 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 13.5 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (3:48 / km)
Error: −2:43 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 45:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:31 (42.7 km/h)
Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Total: 45:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 23.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.