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Elite Women

18.07.2026 William Hawrelak Park CAN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Cup Edmonton

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 92/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 29 früheren Rennen und 374 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 47.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 29 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.5
Mean swim error15.6 s
Mean bike-speed error2.29 km/h
Correct bike groups12/51
No history0
Within the 80% range56.9 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Taylor Knibb
USA
+0 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:16
17:24
 46:56
Show details
Prediction details: Taylor Knibb

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 46:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (41.3 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 46:56
2 / 16 Lea Coninx
FRA
+38 s
+35 s
G3 / G2
 16:50
17:56
 47:29
Show details
Prediction details: Lea Coninx

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 3.2 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 114 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 47:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Total: 47:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 35.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5 Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez
MEX
+30 s
+17 s
G3 / G2
 16:52
17:26
 47:31
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Maria Valentina Torres Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–17
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 12.7 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 47:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 16:52 (3:22 / km)
Total: 47:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 26.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 31 Eleanor Beveridge
USA
+46 s
+40 s
G3 / G3
correct 		16:56
17:31
 47:35
Show details
Prediction details: Eleanor Beveridge

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–25
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 6.3 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 47:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Total: 47:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 43.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 35 Brooke Rousselle
CAN
+39 s
+20 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:10
18:00
 47:49
Show details
Prediction details: Brooke Rousselle

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–20
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 19.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 47:49
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 36.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 30 Julia Hauser
AUT
+43 s
+38 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:10
17:27
 47:49
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Hauser

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–21
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 4.8 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 39.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 3 Paola Sacchi
ITA
+41 s
+6 s
G3 / G2
 17:12
17:20
 47:51
Show details
Prediction details: Paola Sacchi

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–31
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 34.6 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:23 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Total: 47:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 37.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 29 Shanae Williams
RSA
+34 s
+15 s
G3 / G2
 17:18
19:09
 47:57
Show details
Prediction details: Shanae Williams

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 4–25
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 19.4 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Error: −1:51 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 47:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 31.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 17 Zuzana Michalickova
SVK
+39 s
+6 s
G3 / G2
 17:19
17:55
 47:58
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzana Michalickova

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 2–35
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 33.3 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 282 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 255 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:36 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 47:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 36.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 24 Rebecca Beti
SUI
+47 s
+14 s
G3 / G2
 17:19
18:43
 47:58
Show details
Prediction details: Rebecca Beti

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–35
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 33.1 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur 0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: −1:24 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 47:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 44.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 9 Naomi Ruff
USA
+33 s
+15 s
G3 / G2
 17:20
17:30
 47:59
Show details
Prediction details: Naomi Ruff

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 17.6 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Total: 47:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 29.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 18 Manami Hayashi
JPN
+28 s
+20 s
G3 / G2
 17:21
18:09
 48:00
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 4–19
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 8.3 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 217 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 217 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 48:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 25.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 19 Ainsley Thorpe
NZL
+40 s
+18 s
G3 / G2
 17:21
18:12
 48:00
Show details
Prediction details: Ainsley Thorpe

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–25
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:12 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 48:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 37.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 23 Rachel Werking
USA
+28 s
+15 s
G3 / G2
 17:22
18:35
 48:01
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel Werking

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 5–25
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 12.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 48:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 24.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 38 Marcela Alvarez Solis
MEX
+44 s
+24 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:27
18:25
 48:06
Show details
Prediction details: Marcela Alvarez Solis

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 4–33
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 19.5 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Total: 48:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 40.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 25 Candice Denizot
FRA
+8 s
+2 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:39
18:56
 48:07
Show details
Prediction details: Candice Denizot

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 5–20
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 6.1 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Error: −1:17 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 48:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:18 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Total: 48:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +1.7 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 7 Angelica Prestia
ITA
+28 s
+12 s
G3 / G2
 17:34
17:32
 48:13
Show details
Prediction details: Angelica Prestia

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 8–26
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 16.1 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 170 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 161 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 48:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Total: 48:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 25.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 42 Giovanna Lacerda
BRA
+37 s
+24 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:34
19:26
 48:13
Show details
Prediction details: Giovanna Lacerda

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 11–31
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 13.4 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:26 (3:53 / km)
Error: −1:52 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 48:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:34 (3:31 / km)
Total: 48:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 34.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 2 Márta Kropkó
HUN
+10 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 17:49
18:33
 48:17
Show details
Prediction details: Márta Kropkó

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 8–24
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 9.7 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 154 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:18 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 6.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 6 Erica Hawley
BER
+33 s
+12 s
G3 / G2
 17:45
17:28
 48:24
Show details
Prediction details: Erica Hawley

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 5–35
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 20.8 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 156 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Total: 48:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 29.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 12 Maïra Carreau
CAN
+44 s
+22 s
G3 / G2
 17:46
17:49
 48:25
Show details
Prediction details: Maïra Carreau

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 17–35
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 21.7 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Total: 48:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 40.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 32 Erin McConnell
IRL
+8 s
+12 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:59
19:37
 48:27
Show details
Prediction details: Erin McConnell

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 4–36
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: -3.7 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 81 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Error: −1:38 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 48:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:18 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 48:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 5.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 14 Tara Sosinski
AUS
+7 s
+8 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:00
17:52
 48:28
Show details
Prediction details: Tara Sosinski

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 7–32
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 9:15
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:15 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:18 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Total: 48:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 4.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 4 Beatrice Mallozzi
ITA
+35 s
+20 s
G3 / G2
 17:50
17:22
 48:29
Show details
Prediction details: Beatrice Mallozzi

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 19–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 14.9 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 139 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 48:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 32 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 13 Barbara De Koning
NED
+37 s
+13 s
G3 / G2
 17:51
17:55
 48:30
Show details
Prediction details: Barbara De Koning

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 7–40
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 24.4 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 250 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 248 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 48:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Total: 48:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 34.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 20 Michelle Magnani
USA
+40 s
+13 s
G3 / G2
 17:53
18:15
 48:32
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Magnani

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 20–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 27.4 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 11
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Total: 48:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 37.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 8 Noelia Juan
ESP
+45 s
+42 s
G3 / G2
 17:57
17:30
 48:36
Show details
Prediction details: Noelia Juan

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 16–43
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:53
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 3.2 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 189 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 187 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:27 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Total: 48:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 42.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 41 Hye Rim Jeong
KOR
+37 s
+36 s
G3 / G3
correct 		18:02
19:03
 48:41
Show details
Prediction details: Hye Rim Jeong

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 20–44
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 0.6 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 48:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 48:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 33.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 21 Silke De Wolde
NED
+43 s
+26 s
G3 / G2
 18:03
18:20
 48:42
Show details
Prediction details: Silke De Wolde

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 23–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 17.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 25 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 1.32 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:20 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 48:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Total: 48:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 40.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 22 Hye Rang Kim
KOR
+37 s
+12 s
G3 / G2
 18:04
18:27
 48:43
Show details
Prediction details: Hye Rang Kim

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 18–42
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 24.8 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -1.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:27 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 18:04 (3:37 / km)
Total: 48:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 33.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 10 Béatrice Filion
CAN
+56 s
+21 s
G4 / G2
 17:10
17:30
 48:49
Show details
Prediction details: Béatrice Filion

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 3–43
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 34.5 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 3.5 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Total: 48:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 52.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 15 Ilaria Zane
ITA
+27 s
+26 s
G3 / G2
 18:11
17:51
 48:50
Show details
Prediction details: Ilaria Zane

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 21–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 0.7 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 154 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Total: 48:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 23.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 26 Miyu Sakai
JPN
+39 s
+9 s
G3 / G2
 18:16
18:51
 48:55
Show details
Prediction details: Miyu Sakai

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 29–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 30.4 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 217 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 217 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Total: 48:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 36.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 36 Joy Gill
USA
+54 s
+44 s
G4 / G3
 17:18
18:01
 48:57
Show details
Prediction details: Joy Gill

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 5–43
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 94 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 50.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 11 Melanie Santos
POR
+51 s
+25 s
G4 / G2
 17:19
17:40
 48:58
Show details
Prediction details: Melanie Santos

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 8–43
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 26.1 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 48.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 28 Hollie Elliott
IRL
+34 s
+23 s
G3 / G2
 18:25
19:07
 49:04
Show details
Prediction details: Hollie Elliott

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 27–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 10.8 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Total: 49:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 30.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 33 Sarika Nakayama
JPN
+29 s
+15 s
G3 / G2
 18:28
19:35
 49:07
Show details
Prediction details: Sarika Nakayama

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 29–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 248 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 246 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Error: −1:07 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 49:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Total: 49:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 26.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 45 Colette Reimer
CAN
+53 s
+47 s
G4 / G3
 17:43
20:05
 49:22
Show details
Prediction details: Colette Reimer

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 22–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 6.2 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:05 (4:01 / km)
Error: −2:22 / −0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 49:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Total: 49:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 50.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 46 Anja Weber
SUI
+16 s
+8 s
G3 / G2
 18:49
22:37
 49:28
Show details
Prediction details: Anja Weber

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 32–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 7.8 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:37 (4:31 / km)
Error: −3:48 / −0:46 / km
Overall prediction: 49:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 49:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 12.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 49 Ellison Wolfe
USA
+51 s
+50 s
G4 / G4
correct 		17:53
18:52
 49:32
Show details
Prediction details: Ellison Wolfe

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 23–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:59 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 49:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Total: 49:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 48.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 34 Kira Gupta-Baltazar
CAN
+32 s
+27 s
G3 / G2
 18:54
19:45
 49:33
Show details
Prediction details: Kira Gupta-Baltazar

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 36–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 5.3 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 49:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Total: 49:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 29.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 37 Aviv Levi
ISR
+21 s
+8 s
G3 / G2
 18:55
20:15
 49:34
Show details
Prediction details: Aviv Levi

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 23–49
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 13.4 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 117 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (4:03 / km)
Error: −1:20 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 49:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Total: 49:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 18.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 40 Mako Hiraizumi
JPN
+51 s
+43 s
G4 / G3
 18:11
19:00
 49:50
Show details
Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 32–45
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 8.4 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 166 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 164 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 49:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Total: 49:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 48.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 44 Lulu Johnson
NZL
+52 s
+12 s
G4 / G3
 18:18
19:37
 49:57
Show details
Prediction details: Lulu Johnson

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 28–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 39.9 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Error: −1:19 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 49:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Total: 49:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 49 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 48 Himeka Sato
JPN
+42 s
+23 s
G3 / G3
correct 		19:19
20:37
 49:58
Show details
Prediction details: Himeka Sato

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 36–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 18.7 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 215 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 215 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 49:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 19:19 (3:52 / km)
Total: 49:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 38.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 39 Julia Visgueiro
BRA
+50 s
+43 s
G4 / G3
 18:22
18:42
 50:01
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Visgueiro

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 27–50
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 6.6 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:44 (39.8 km/h)
Run: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Total: 50:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 46.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 27 Tallulah Wright
HKG
+41 s
+19 s
G3 / G2
 19:25
18:51
 50:04
Show details
Prediction details: Tallulah Wright

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 42–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 21.5 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (34 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (36 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 50:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:52 (41.0 km/h)
Run: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Total: 50:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 37.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 47 Molly Lakustiak
CAN
+59 s
+44 s
G5 / G3
 18:25
20:29
 50:28
Show details
Prediction details: Molly Lakustiak

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 32–50
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 47
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 15.0 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.5 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:29 (4:06 / km)
Error: −2:04 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 50:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:02 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Total: 50:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 56.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 43 Yan Yin Hilda Choi
HKG
+61 s
+28 s
G5 / G3
 19:02
19:37
 51:05
Show details
Prediction details: Yan Yin Hilda Choi

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 46–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 32.8 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 149 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 3 (15 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:02 (39.4 km/h)
Run: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Total: 51:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 57.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
50 / 50 Amara Rae
NZL
+65 s
+71 s
G6 / G4
 18:09
19:25
 52:03
Show details
Prediction details: Amara Rae

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 37–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -5.9 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 16.9 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:25 (3:53 / km)
Error: −1:16 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 52:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:49 (37.3 km/h)
Run: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Total: 52:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 62.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 51 Gabrielle Lemes
BRA
+82 s
+49 s
G7 / G4
 18:43
20:23
 52:46
Show details
Prediction details: Gabrielle Lemes

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 49–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 33.0 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.9 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 137 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Error: −1:40 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 52:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:41 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Total: 52:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
About 79.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +2.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.