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Elite Women

21.03.2026 CHN
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Cup Haikou

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 98/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 96.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.0
Mean swim error10.8 s
Mean bike-speed error0.82 km/h
Correct bike groups16/31
No history0
Within the 80% range64.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Sian Rainsley
GBR
+9 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:29
16:19
 47:36
Show details
Prediction details: Sian Rainsley

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 0.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 91 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Total: 47:36
2 / 4 Desirae Ridenour
CAN
+10 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:35
16:34
 47:42
Show details
Prediction details: Desirae Ridenour

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -2.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 99 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 47:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Total: 47:42
3 / 6 Olivia Mathias
GBR
+9 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:40
16:54
 47:47
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Mathias

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 8.5 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 66 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 47:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Total: 47:47
4 / 1 Diana Isakova
AIN
+11 s
+15 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:42
16:11
 47:49
Show details
Prediction details: Diana Isakova

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -4.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 73 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:11 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 47:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 16:42 (3:20 / km)
Total: 47:49
5 / 12 Charlotte Derbyshire
AUS
+8 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:06
17:27
 48:13
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Derbyshire

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -10.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 17:06 (3:25 / km)
Total: 48:13
6 / 18 Sophia Howell
CAN
+12 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:27
18:13
 48:34
Show details
Prediction details: Sophia Howell

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 0.5 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 48:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 17:27 (3:29 / km)
Total: 48:34
7 / 16 Marta Pintanel Raymundo
ESP
+20 s
+28 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:40
17:10
 48:52
Show details
Prediction details: Marta Pintanel Raymundo

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 1–12
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -7.7 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 108 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 107 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 48:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Total: 48:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 1.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 11 Sidney Clement
CAN
+9 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:45
17:26
 48:52
Show details
Prediction details: Sidney Clement

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -12.6 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 48:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Total: 48:52
9 / 9 Valentina Riasova
AIN
+27 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:46
16:20
 48:58
Show details
Prediction details: Valentina Riasova

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 1.1 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 48:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Total: 48:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 8.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 7 María Teresa Jiménez-Orta Guerrero
ESP
+19 s
+14 s
G2 / G1
 17:00
16:54
 49:12
Show details
Prediction details: María Teresa Jiménez-Orta Guerrero

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 49:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: 49:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 0.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 8 Naomi Ruff
USA
+21 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 17:01
17:12
 49:13
Show details
Prediction details: Naomi Ruff

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 54 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 5.6 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Total: 49:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 2 Sophie Malowiecki
AUS
+26 s
+18 s
G2 / G1
 17:08
16:15
 49:20
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Malowiecki

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 3–21
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 7.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 49:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Total: 49:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 15 Beatrice Mallozzi
ITA
+30 s
+25 s
G2 / G1
 17:19
18:02
 49:31
Show details
Prediction details: Beatrice Mallozzi

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 6–21
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 4.8 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 67 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 49:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 49:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 11.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 19 Barbara De Koning
NED
+23 s
+29 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:30
17:23
 49:42
Show details
Prediction details: Barbara De Koning

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 8–19
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -6.0 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 49:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:30 (3:30 / km)
Total: 49:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 4.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 13 Iana Chenskaia
AIN
+13 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:38
17:26
 49:45
Show details
Prediction details: Iana Chenskaia

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 14–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Error: +1:12 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 49:45
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:55 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Total: 49:45
16 / 10 Manami Hayashi
JPN
+21 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 17:38
17:21
 49:50
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 9–20
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 98 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 49:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km)
Total: 49:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 2.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 5 Xinyu Lin
CHN
+25 s
+12 s
G2 / G1
 17:40
16:37
 49:52
Show details
Prediction details: Xinyu Lin

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 10–19
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 12.6 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:37 (3:19 / km)
Error: +1:03 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 49:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:40 (3:32 / km)
Total: 49:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 20 Sinem Francisca Tous Servera
TUR
+29 s
+24 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:41
17:50
 49:53
Show details
Prediction details: Sinem Francisca Tous Servera

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 10–24
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 4.5 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Total: 49:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 9.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 25 Borbála Sarcia
HUN
+34 s
+41 s
G2 / G3
 17:48
18:23
 50:00
Show details
Prediction details: Borbála Sarcia

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 14–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -7.5 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 50:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Total: 50:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 14.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 21 Linda Krombach
LUX
+28 s
+38 s
G2 / G3
 18:06
16:49
 50:18
Show details
Prediction details: Linda Krombach

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 15–24
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:59
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -10.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.94 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Error: +1:17 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 50:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:59 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Total: 50:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 17 Finja Schierl
GER
+24 s
+14 s
G2 / G1
 18:35
18:17
 50:47
Show details
Prediction details: Finja Schierl

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 17–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 10.3 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Total: 50:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 5.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 14 Kanae Takenaka
JPN
+19 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 19:00
17:56
 51:12
Show details
Prediction details: Kanae Takenaka

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 16–29
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 11.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 60 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (18 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 59 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Error: +1:04 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 51:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Total: 51:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 0.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 22 Ivana Kuriackova
SVK
+25 s
+29 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:00
18:23
 51:12
Show details
Prediction details: Ivana Kuriackova

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -4.4 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur -1.09 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Total: 51:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 29 Anahi Alvarez Corral
MEX
+82 s
+114 s
G6 / G5
 16:23
17:41
 51:31
Show details
Prediction details: Anahi Alvarez Corral

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 16–28
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 10:53
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +114 s
Fehler: -31.6 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 48 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 51:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:53 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:45 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Total: 51:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 63.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 24 Mako Hiraizumi
JPN
+47 s
+39 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:59
18:13
 51:34
Show details
Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 20–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 7.7 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.1 s
Gap behind: 7.5 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 78 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:41 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 51:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 28.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 23 Bailee Brown
HKG
+39 s
+25 s
G3 / G2
 18:01
18:34
 51:36
Show details
Prediction details: Bailee Brown

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 18–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 83 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 8.1 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:41 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: 51:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 20 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 27 Ziqing Lu
CHN
+37 s
+42 s
G2 / G3
 19:29
18:44
 51:41
Show details
Prediction details: Ziqing Lu

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 24–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -5.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (16 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 51:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:35 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Total: 51:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 18.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 31 Meiyi Lu
CHN
+67 s
+122 s
G4 / G5
 17:44
18:09
 52:13
Show details
Prediction details: Meiyi Lu

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 24–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +122 s
Fehler: -55.5 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.3 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 73 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 52:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:22 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Total: 52:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 47.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 26 Yan Yin Hilda Choi
HKG
+54 s
+46 s
G3 / G3
correct 		19:16
18:29
 52:51
Show details
Prediction details: Yan Yin Hilda Choi

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 28–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 8.2 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.5 s
Gap behind: 12.3 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 52:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:41 (37.0 km/h)
Run: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Total: 52:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 35.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 30 Kaiye Mai
CHN
+67 s
+47 s
G4 / G4
correct 		18:33
19:02
 53:02
Show details
Prediction details: Kaiye Mai

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 26–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 20.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.52 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:29 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 53:02
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:22 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Total: 53:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 48.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 28 Siyu Wang
CHN
+76 s
+44 s
G5 / G3
 21:04
19:28
 56:06
Show details
Prediction details: Siyu Wang

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 31–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time: 10:47
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 32.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 3 (7 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 56:06
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:46 (35.5 km/h)
Run: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Total: 56:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 57.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.