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Elite Men

14.06.2026 Plaza Santa Cruz, Huatulco MEX
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Cup Huatulco

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 70/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 100.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error11.6
Mean swim error12.1 s
Mean bike-speed error1.74 km/h
Correct bike groups19/54
No history0
Within the 80% range70.4 %
Details
1 / 6 Mathis Beaulieu
CAN
+18 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:07
14:51
 42:06
Show details
Prediction details: Mathis Beaulieu

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 157 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:07 (2:49 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 148 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Error: −0:44 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 42:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 14:07 (2:49 / km)
Total: 42:06
2 / 1 Tyler Mislawchuk
CAN
+14 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:33
14:43
 42:32
Show details
Prediction details: Tyler Mislawchuk

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 10.9 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:33 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:43 (2:57 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 42:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 14:33 (2:55 / km)
Total: 42:32
3 / 23 Aoba Yasumatsu
JPN
+26 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 14:30
16:02
 42:38
Show details
Prediction details: Aoba Yasumatsu

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–23
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 16.1 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 192 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:30 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 178 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Error: −1:32 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 42:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 14:30 (2:54 / km)
Total: 42:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 9 Lukas Pertl
AUT
+26 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 14:35
15:08
 42:43
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Pertl

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–21
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 9.9 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 135 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 42:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Total: 42:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 1.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 4 Reese Vannerson
USA
+30 s
+13 s
G2 / G1
 14:37
14:43
 42:45
Show details
Prediction details: Reese Vannerson

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–25
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 17.0 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 168 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:43 (2:57 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Total: 42:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 5.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 11 Andree Buc
CHI
+35 s
+12 s
G2 / G1
 14:37
15:17
 42:45
Show details
Prediction details: Andree Buc

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–22
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 22.5 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 200 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 181 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:17 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 42:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Total: 42:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 47 Aurelien Jem
FRA
+30 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 14:42
19:14
 42:50
Show details
Prediction details: Aurelien Jem

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–24
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -40

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:25
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 22.6 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 97 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:14 (3:51 / km)
Error: −4:32 / −0:54 / km
Overall prediction: 42:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:25 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 5.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8 Liam Donnelly
CAN
+38 s
+30 s
G2 / G1
 14:42
15:03
 42:50
Show details
Prediction details: Liam Donnelly

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–37
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 7.8 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 291 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 268 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Total: 42:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
9 / 7 Braxton Legg
USA
+14 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:57
15:03
 42:56
Show details
Prediction details: Braxton Legg

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 4–16
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 11.0 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 166 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 167 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Error: −0:06 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Total: 42:56
10 / 14 Aram Michell Peñaflor Moysen
MEX
+23 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:01
15:25
 43:00
Show details
Prediction details: Aram Michell Peñaflor Moysen

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–28
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 8.5 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 244 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 231 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:00
11 / 48 Alejandro Rodriguez Diez
CUB
+34 s
+39 s
G2 / G5
 14:53
17:01
 43:01
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Rodriguez Diez

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 3–43
Top-10 probability: 31 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -37

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -4.7 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 124 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Error: −2:08 / −0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 43:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Total: 43:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 10.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 17 Blake Bullard
USA
+2 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:08
15:40
 43:07
Show details
Prediction details: Blake Bullard

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 1–32
Top-10 probability: 48 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 143 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 135 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:07
13 / 32 Daniel Ubilla Sabada
CHI
+34 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 15:00
16:22
 43:08
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Ubilla Sabada

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 5–41
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 13.2 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 104 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Error: −1:22 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 43:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:00 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 10.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 37 Bradley Course
AUS
+35 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 15:01
17:00
 43:09
Show details
Prediction details: Bradley Course

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 7–29
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 13.7 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 70 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 64 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 57 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Error: −1:59 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 43:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:01 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 10.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 15 Eloy Canales Escribano
ESP
+28 s
+17 s
G2 / G1
 15:02
15:30
 43:10
Show details
Prediction details: Eloy Canales Escribano

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 10–26
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 10.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 5 Kuba Gajda
POL
+36 s
+32 s
G2 / G1
 15:05
14:51
 43:13
Show details
Prediction details: Kuba Gajda

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–40
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 4.3 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 75 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 74 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:05 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 12.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 25 Shachar Agur
ISR
+18 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:14
16:03
 43:13
Show details
Prediction details: Shachar Agur

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 8–30
Top-10 probability: 25 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -5.7 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Error: −0:49 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 43:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:13
18 / 39 Eduardo Nuñez Gomez
MEX
+14 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:22
17:03
 43:21
Show details
Prediction details: Eduardo Nuñez Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 12–28
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: -2.3 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 188 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 180 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Error: −1:41 / −0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 43:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:21
19 / 29 Philip Pertl
AUT
+28 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 15:16
16:18
 43:24
Show details
Prediction details: Philip Pertl

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 8–35
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 13.0 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 169 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 170 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Error: −1:02 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 43:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 3.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 20 Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa
ECU
+15 s
+27 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:25
15:44
 43:24
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 11–30
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -11.7 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 247 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 59 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 224 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:24
21 / 22 Jayden Schofield
AUS
+25 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 15:18
15:59
 43:26
Show details
Prediction details: Jayden Schofield

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 11–35
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 13.7 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 0.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 21 Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez
ESP
+4 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:27
15:53
 43:26
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 7–26
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 1.8 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 90 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 82 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:53 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:26
23 / 28 Genis Grau
ESP
+22 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:28
16:14
 43:27
Show details
Prediction details: Genis Grau

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 3–45
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 141 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:46 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:27
24 / 30 Ivan Anzaldo
ARG
+23 s
+34 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:32
16:15
 43:31
Show details
Prediction details: Ivan Anzaldo

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 18–34
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -11.0 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 120 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:15 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 43:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:32 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:31
25 / 16 Erik Yamir Ramos Croda
MEX
+35 s
+18 s
G2 / G1
 15:27
15:29
 43:35
Show details
Prediction details: Erik Yamir Ramos Croda

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 17–43
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 16.8 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 285 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 276 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 10.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 10 Toby Powers
AUS
+27 s
+21 s
G2 / G1
 15:29
15:07
 43:37
Show details
Prediction details: Toby Powers

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 8–45
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 6.4 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 71 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 76 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 43:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:29 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 3.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 34 Mateo Mendoza Burgos
CHI
+38 s
+38 s
G2 / G3
 15:30
16:02
 43:38
Show details
Prediction details: Mateo Mendoza Burgos

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 10–49
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -0.5 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 211 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 196 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Total: 43:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 13.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 19 Nicolas Probert Vargas
MEX
+19 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:40
15:48
 43:39
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Probert Vargas

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 18–40
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 18.2 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 186 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 186 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:39
29 / 38 Gabriel Terán Carvajal
ECU
+10 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:41
16:59
 43:40
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Terán Carvajal

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 14–37
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 1.3 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 203 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 192 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Error: −1:18 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 43:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:40
30 / 41 Kauê Willy
BRA
+23 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:42
17:16
 43:41
Show details
Prediction details: Kauê Willy

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 20–43
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:18
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 8.6 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 226 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Error: −1:34 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 43:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:42 (3:08 / km)
Total: 43:41
31 / 44 Uzziel Valderrabano Chavez
MEX
+28 s
+17 s
G2 / G1
 15:34
17:20
 43:42
Show details
Prediction details: Uzziel Valderrabano Chavez

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 14–44
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 11.1 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 165 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Error: −1:46 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 43:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:34 (3:07 / km)
Total: 43:42
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 36 Antonio Bravo Neto
BRA
+34 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 15:43
16:40
 43:51
Show details
Prediction details: Antonio Bravo Neto

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 27–49
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 17.8 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 249 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 218 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 43:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 9.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 45 Yael Vladimir González Melendez
MEX
+28 s
+14 s
G2 / G1
 15:45
18:38
 43:53
Show details
Prediction details: Yael Vladimir González Melendez

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 9–50
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 199 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Error: −2:53 / −0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 43:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:45 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 4.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 33 Alvaro Campos Solano
CRC
+17 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:56
16:20
 43:55
Show details
Prediction details: Alvaro Campos Solano

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 23–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -1.8 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 287 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 259 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Total: 43:55
35 / 46 Luke McCarron
IRL
+31 s
+33 s
G2 / G5
 15:51
16:14
 43:59
Show details
Prediction details: Luke McCarron

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 27–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:26
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -2.0 s
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 32 Gegner:innen, 55 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:26 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Total: 43:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 6.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 51 Ramón Armando Matute
ECU
+6 s
+26 s
G1 / G5
 16:02
17:32
 44:01
Show details
Prediction details: Ramón Armando Matute

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 22–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -20.0 s
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 136 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 126 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: −1:30 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 44:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:01
37 / 27 Jordan Rieck
AUS
+10 s
+25 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:04
16:08
 44:03
Show details
Prediction details: Jordan Rieck

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 23–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -14.8 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 16:04 (3:13 / km)
Total: 44:03
38 / 43 Niklas Keller
AUT
+35 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 15:59
17:18
 44:07
Show details
Prediction details: Niklas Keller

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 21–52
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 4.2 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 85 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Error: −1:19 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 44:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 15:59 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 11.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 18 Dylan Didier Campa Carranza
MEX
+12 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:12
15:43
 44:11
Show details
Prediction details: Dylan Didier Campa Carranza

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 7–50
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 4.6 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 222 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 192 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 16:12 (3:14 / km)
Total: 44:11
40 / 24 Leandre Binette
CAN
+22 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:14
16:07
 44:13
Show details
Prediction details: Leandre Binette

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 18–50
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 56 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 57 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:07 (3:13 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km)
Total: 44:13
41 / 42 Thomas Windischbauer
AUT
+11 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:20
17:16
 44:19
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Windischbauer

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 13–50
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 4.7 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 79 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 72 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Error: −0:56 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 44:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 16:20 (3:16 / km)
Total: 44:19
42 / 3 Vinicius Avi Santana
BRA
+48 s
+26 s
G3 / G1
 15:09
14:51
 44:20
Show details
Prediction details: Vinicius Avi Santana

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 15–50
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 39

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 175 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 168 Duelle, Korrektur 0.68 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Total: 44:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 24 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 2 Sullivan Middaugh
USA
+62 s
+35 s
G3 / G1
 15:13
14:45
 44:24
Show details
Prediction details: Sullivan Middaugh

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 26–50
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 41

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 27.3 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 180 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.6 s
Gap behind: 10.0 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 169 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Total: 44:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 38.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 52 David Nuñez Gomez
MEX
+46 s
+34 s
G3 / G5
 15:21
17:53
 44:32
Show details
Prediction details: David Nuñez Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 10–52
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 11.9 s
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 144 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Error: −2:32 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 44:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 44:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 21.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 40 Peter Rojtas
SVK
+35 s
+23 s
G2 / G1
 16:29
17:07
 44:37
Show details
Prediction details: Peter Rojtas

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 22–53
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 40
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:30
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (22 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 43.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 100 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:30 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:30 (43.6 km/h)
Run: 16:29 (3:18 / km)
Total: 44:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 10.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 13 Ignacio Flores Arana
CHI
+48 s
+28 s
G3 / G2
 15:28
15:09
 44:39
Show details
Prediction details: Ignacio Flores Arana

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 25–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 33

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 20.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 23.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 31 Rodrigo Gonzalez Lopez
MEX
+44 s
+35 s
G3 / G1
 15:33
16:16
 44:44
Show details
Prediction details: Rodrigo Gonzalez Lopez

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 11–51
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 9.2 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 282 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 260 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 44:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:33 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 20.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 12 Zach Leachman
USA
+72 s
+23 s
G4 / G1
 14:36
15:15
 44:48
Show details
Prediction details: Zach Leachman

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 28–50
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 36

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 49.3 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.96 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.0 s
Gap behind: 8.6 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:36 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:40 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:15 (3:03 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:00 (41.4 km/h)
Run: 14:36 (2:55 / km)
Total: 44:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 48.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
49 / 53 Cristian Torrealba
VEN
+22 s
+33 s
G1 / G6
 16:54
17:52
 44:53
Show details
Prediction details: Cristian Torrealba

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 44–52
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 53
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: -10.6 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 43.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 63 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 44:53
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:36 (43.9 km/h)
Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Total: 44:53
50 / 35 Tiago Muñoz
ARG
+43 s
+35 s
G3 / G1
 15:44
16:32
 44:55
Show details
Prediction details: Tiago Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 32–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 8.4 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 205 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 201 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:32 (3:18 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 44:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:44 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 19.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 26 Itamar Levanon
ISR
+45 s
+37 s
G3 / G1
 15:48
16:09
 44:59
Show details
Prediction details: Itamar Levanon

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 33–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 7.9 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 216 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (47 people)
Speed: 42.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 20.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 49 Porter Middaugh
USA
+51 s
+30 s
G3 / G5
 15:48
17:17
 44:59
Show details
Prediction details: Porter Middaugh

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 28–52
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 49
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 20.7 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 112 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 11.6 s
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 105 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:17 (3:27 / km)
Error: −1:29 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 44:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.4 km/h)
Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 26.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
53 / 50 Gabriel Lecheta
BRA
+81 s
+40 s
G5 / G4
 15:23
19:06
 46:04
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Lecheta

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 39–53
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 50
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 40.9 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur -0.89 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.6 s
Gap behind: 66.2 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 41.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 134 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Error: −3:43 / −0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 46:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:20 (40.9 km/h)
Run: 15:23 (3:05 / km)
Total: 46:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 56.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 54 Cheng-Hsi Tai
TPE
+147 s
+132 s
G6 / G7
 19:32
21:04
 53:51
Show details
Prediction details: Cheng-Hsi Tai

Placement

Prediction: 54
80% range: 54–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 54
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +147 s
Time: 11:22
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +132 s
Fehler: 15.1 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 66.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:04 (4:13 / km)
Error: −1:32 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 53:51
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:52 (37.7 km/h)
Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km)
Total: 53:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:19
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 123 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.