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Elite Men

14.03.2026 Costa Teguise ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Cup Lanzarote

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 14.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 calibrated
Prediction quality 99/100 hoch
Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 73 früheren Rennen und 1464 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 98.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 73 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error12.4
Mean swim error5.6 s
Mean bike-speed error3.44 km/h
Correct bike groups41/65
No history0
Within the 80% range58.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 4 Dorian Coninx
FRA
+12 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:15
14:34
 42:42
Show details
Prediction details: Dorian Coninx

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–5
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 0.1 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:15 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 121 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:34 (2:55 / km)
Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:42
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:42 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:15 (2:51 / km)
Total: 42:42
2 / 1 David Cantero Del Campo
ESP
+28 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:19
14:16
 42:46
Show details
Prediction details: David Cantero Del Campo

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–16
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 9.3 s
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 205 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:19 (2:52 / km)
Historical basis: 2:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 205 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:16 (2:51 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 42:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:19 (2:52 / km)
Total: 42:46
3 / 51 Valentin Morlec
FRA
+13 s
+22 s
G1 / G3
 14:23
15:08
 42:50
Show details
Prediction details: Valentin Morlec

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 1–15
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -48

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -8.9 s
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 228 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:23 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 218 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 42:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:43 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:23 (2:53 / km)
Total: 42:50
4 / 12 Tom Richard
FRA
+17 s
+25 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:28
14:48
 42:55
Show details
Prediction details: Tom Richard

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: -8.2 s
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 210 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:28 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 189 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:48 (2:58 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 42:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:28 (2:54 / km)
Total: 42:55
5 / 11 Antonio Serrat Seoane
ESP
+26 s
+28 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:33
14:37
 43:00
Show details
Prediction details: Antonio Serrat Seoane

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–40
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +26 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -2.5 s
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 271 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:33 (2:55 / km)
Historical basis: 2:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 254 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:33 (2:55 / km)
Total: 43:00
6 / 6 Max Stapley
GBR
+8 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:40
14:35
 43:07
Show details
Prediction details: Max Stapley

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–16
Top-10 probability: 61 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 8:38
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: -1.1 s
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 34 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:38 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Total: 43:07
7 / 34 Arnaud Mengal
BEL
+32 s
+34 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:15
14:40
 43:08
Show details
Prediction details: Arnaud Mengal

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 2–18
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -2.4 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:15 (2:51 / km)
Historical basis: 2:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:40 (2:56 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 14:15 (2:51 / km)
Total: 43:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 54 Kenji Nener
JPN
+15 s
+11 s
G1 / G3
 14:42
15:20
 43:09
Show details
Prediction details: Kenji Nener

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 3–20
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 54
Deviation: -46

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:45
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 190 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 190 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:45 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Total: 43:09
9 / 25 Nicola Azzano
ITA
+12 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:45
15:09
 43:12
Show details
Prediction details: Nicola Azzano

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 6–18
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: -6.9 s
H2H: 58 Gegner:innen, 335 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 57 Gegner:innen, 325 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:42 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:12
10 / 3 Jawad Abdelmoula
MAR
+21 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:45
14:31
 43:12
Show details
Prediction details: Jawad Abdelmoula

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 2–30
Top-10 probability: 36 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 1.5 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 145 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 125 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:31 (2:54 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:12
11 / 30 Panagiotis Bitados
GRE
+15 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:46
15:39
 43:13
Show details
Prediction details: Panagiotis Bitados

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 5–32
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 8:45
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -4.8 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 45 Gegner:innen, 116 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:53 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 43:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:45 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:13
12 / 13 Pelayo González Turrez
ESP
+21 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:46
14:57
 43:13
Show details
Prediction details: Pelayo González Turrez

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 5–35
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 0.1 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 141 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 64 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 106 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:13
13 / 2 Tim Hellwig
GER
+18 s
+27 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:47
14:19
 43:14
Show details
Prediction details: Tim Hellwig

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 4–25
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -8.6 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 119 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:47 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:19 (2:52 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:47 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:14
14 / 15 Miguel Espuna Larramona
ITA
+22 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:47
14:57
 43:14
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Espuna Larramona

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 8–24
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -2.5 s
H2H: 48 Gegner:innen, 170 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:47 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:57 (2:59 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:47 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:14
15 / 7 Izan Edo Aguilar
ESP
+33 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 14:24
14:37
 43:17
Show details
Prediction details: Izan Edo Aguilar

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 4–32
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 9:03
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 3.5 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 151 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:24 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 147 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:37 (2:55 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:03 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 14:24 (2:53 / km)
Total: 43:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 9 Aurelien Jem
FRA
+37 s
+23 s
G2 / G1
 14:28
14:38
 43:21
Show details
Prediction details: Aurelien Jem

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 5–34
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 14.1 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 153 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:28 (2:54 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 152 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 14:28 (2:54 / km)
Total: 43:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 18 Igor Dupuis
FRA
+2 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:55
14:51
 43:22
Show details
Prediction details: Igor Dupuis

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 8–25
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time: 8:32
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 41.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:55 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 122 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:32 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:55 (2:59 / km)
Total: 43:22
18 / 22 Seth Rider
USA
+18 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		14:58
15:10
 43:25
Show details
Prediction details: Seth Rider

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 11–27
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 0.7 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 190 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:25
19 / 17 Braxton Legg
USA
+18 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:03
14:58
 43:30
Show details
Prediction details: Braxton Legg

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 12–38
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 33 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:30
20 / 8 Roberto Sanchez Mantecon
ESP
+41 s
+29 s
G2 / G1
 14:42
14:45
 43:35
Show details
Prediction details: Roberto Sanchez Mantecon

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 8–56
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 11.6 s
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 217 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 38 Gegner:innen, 193 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 14:42 (2:56 / km)
Total: 43:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 11.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 26 Andrés Prieto Villar
ESP
+20 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:10
15:21
 43:37
Show details
Prediction details: Andrés Prieto Villar

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 18–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -2.0 s
H2H: 49 Gegner:innen, 150 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 131 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:37
22 / 5 Nathan Grayel
FRA
+39 s
+32 s
G2 / G1
 14:45
14:35
 43:38
Show details
Prediction details: Nathan Grayel

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 13–52
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.97 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 140 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:35 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 14:45 (2:57 / km)
Total: 43:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 10.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 46 Mitch Kolkman
NED
+10 s
+31 s
G1 / G2
 15:11
15:46
 43:38
Show details
Prediction details: Mitch Kolkman

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 18–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 8:40
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -21.4 s
H2H: 55 Gegner:innen, 194 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 55 Gegner:innen, 194 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:38
24 / 23 Ben Dijkstra
TRI
+19 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:11
15:09
 43:38
Show details
Prediction details: Ben Dijkstra

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 5–52
Top-10 probability: 24 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 2.6 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 113 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 66 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 103 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:09 (3:02 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:11 (3:02 / km)
Total: 43:38
25 / 29 Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez
ESP
+12 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:13
15:30
 43:40
Show details
Prediction details: Kevin Tarek Viñuela Gonzalez

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 15–40
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 184 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 177 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:42 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:40
26 / 41 Michał Oliwa
POL
+24 s
+28 s
G1 / G2
 15:13
15:18
 43:40
Show details
Prediction details: Michał Oliwa

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 18–44
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 41
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -3.9 s
H2H: 57 Gegner:innen, 217 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 56 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:18 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:05 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:40
27 / 60 Gergely Kiss
HUN
+18 s
+18 s
G1 / G4
 15:14
15:51
 43:41
Show details
Prediction details: Gergely Kiss

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 16–42
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 60
Deviation: -33

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 0.3 s
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 198 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 198 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 43:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Total: 43:41
28 / 45 Paul Georgenthum
FRA
+37 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:52
15:24
 43:45
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Georgenthum

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 9–55
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 9.7 s
H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 177 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 162 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 14:52 (2:58 / km)
Total: 43:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 43 Euan De Nigro
ITA
+23 s
+27 s
G1 / G2
 15:21
15:20
 43:48
Show details
Prediction details: Euan De Nigro

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 15–48
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 43
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:53
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: -3.9 s
H2H: 55 Gegner:innen, 246 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 221 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:53 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:48
30 / 38 Jonas Osterholt
GER
+24 s
+34 s
G1 / G2
 15:21
15:19
 43:48
Show details
Prediction details: Jonas Osterholt

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 24–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 8:54
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -10.4 s
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 180 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 52 Gegner:innen, 163 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:54 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:48
31 / 24 Zsombor Dévay
HUN
+28 s
+29 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:21
15:06
 43:48
Show details
Prediction details: Zsombor Dévay

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 27–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -1.1 s
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 206 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 195 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 43:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:48
32 / 50 Nicolas Probert Vargas
MEX
+17 s
+30 s
G1 / G2
 15:22
16:35
 43:49
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Probert Vargas

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 20–47
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: -13.3 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 111 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 75 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 41 Gegner:innen, 101 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:35 (3:19 / km)
Error: −1:13 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 43:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Total: 43:49
33 / 55 Andres Gras
CHI
+30 s
+37 s
G2 / G3
 14:58
15:28
 43:51
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Gras

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 19–40
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 55
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -7.4 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 91 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 99 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:28 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 0.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 33 Jaspar Ortfeld
GER
+40 s
+43 s
G2 / G2
correct 		14:58
14:34
 43:51
Show details
Prediction details: Jaspar Ortfeld

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 12–55
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 33
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -3.4 s
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 35 Gegner:innen, 86 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:34 (2:55 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 43:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 10.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 16 Harry Leleu
GBR
+14 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:24
14:53
 43:51
Show details
Prediction details: Harry Leleu

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 23–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -4.3 s
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 196 Duelle, Korrektur 0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 196 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:53 (2:59 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 43:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:51
36 / 27 Gyula Kovács
HUN
+18 s
+29 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:25
15:27
 43:52
Show details
Prediction details: Gyula Kovács

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 22–46
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -11.4 s
H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 179 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 170 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 43:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:25 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:52
37 / 28 Sylvain Fridelance
SUI
+21 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:27
15:22
 43:54
Show details
Prediction details: Sylvain Fridelance

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 25–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 0.1 s
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 251 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 236 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:22 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:27 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:54
38 / 35 Eloy Canales Escribano
ESP
+34 s
+33 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:02
15:10
 43:55
Show details
Prediction details: Eloy Canales Escribano

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 16–44
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 35
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 1.4 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:10 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:55
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:02 (3:00 / km)
Total: 43:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 5.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 49 Genis Grau
ESP
+30 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:03
16:18
 43:56
Show details
Prediction details: Genis Grau

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 16–49
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 238 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 223 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:18 (3:16 / km)
Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 43:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:03 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 0.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 52 Vicente Hernandez
ESP
+40 s
+38 s
G2 / G3
 15:04
15:08
 43:57
Show details
Prediction details: Vicente Hernandez

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 26–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 52
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 9:10
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 2.0 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:08 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:04 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 43:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Total: 43:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 10.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 37 Jack Stanton-Stock
GBR
+32 s
+27 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:07
15:21
 44:00
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Stanton-Stock

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 15–45
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 36 Gegner:innen, 68 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 58 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:21 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Total: 44:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 19 Esteban Basanta Fouz
ESP
+14 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:36
14:58
 44:03
Show details
Prediction details: Esteban Basanta Fouz

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 30–44
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -7.3 s
H2H: 56 Gegner:innen, 188 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 56 Gegner:innen, 187 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:58 (3:00 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:03
43 / 47 Zalán Trungel-Nagy
HUN
+32 s
+38 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:13
15:55
 44:06
Show details
Prediction details: Zalán Trungel-Nagy

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 24–58
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -6.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 1.04 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:55 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:42 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 44:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:13 (3:03 / km)
Total: 44:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 32 Lucas Cambresy
LUX
+22 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:41
15:39
 44:08
Show details
Prediction details: Lucas Cambresy

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 36–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 3.6 s
H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 196 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 185 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 44:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:08
45 / 10 Thomas Hansmaennel
FRA
+25 s
+32 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:41
14:46
 44:08
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Hansmaennel

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 33–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 35

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -6.9 s
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 142 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 44 Gegner:innen, 132 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:46 (2:57 / km)
Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 44:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:08
46 / 21 Ian Pennekamp
NED
+27 s
+25 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:41
15:07
 44:08
Show details
Prediction details: Ian Pennekamp

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 35–54
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 1.5 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 166 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 166 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:07 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 44:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:41 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:08
47 / 44 Filip Michalek
CZE
+42 s
+37 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:20
15:30
 44:13
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Michalek

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 36–55
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 135 Duelle, Korrektur 0.85 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:30 (3:06 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:20 (3:04 / km)
Total: 44:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 12.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 59 Yhousman David Perdomo Peña
VEN
+22 s
+18 s
G1 / G3
 15:49
16:49
 44:16
Show details
Prediction details: Yhousman David Perdomo Peña

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 5–60
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 59
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 3.9 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 50 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:56 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 41 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 44:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:16
49 / 56 Zalán Hóbor
HUN
+7 s
+10 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:51
18:45
 44:18
Show details
Prediction details: Zalán Hóbor

Placement

Prediction: 49
80% range: 40–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 56
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 8:37
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: -2.8 s
H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 207 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 53 Gegner:innen, 172 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Error: −2:54 / −0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 44:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:37 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:18
50 / 39 Erik Yamir Ramos Croda
MEX
+44 s
+38 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:26
15:19
 44:19
Show details
Prediction details: Erik Yamir Ramos Croda

Placement

Prediction: 50
80% range: 8–61
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 39
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 5.9 s
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
H2H: 40 Gegner:innen, 115 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:19 (3:04 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:26 (3:05 / km)
Total: 44:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 14.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
51 / 40 Ibe Baelde
BEL
+36 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct 		15:31
15:14
 44:24
Show details
Prediction details: Ibe Baelde

Placement

Prediction: 51
80% range: 36–58
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: 11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 0.5 s
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 96 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Historical basis: 3:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 95 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:14 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Total: 44:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
52 / 31 Joris Basslé
BEL
+22 s
+19 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:01
15:48
 44:28
Show details
Prediction details: Joris Basslé

Placement

Prediction: 52
80% range: 34–56
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: 21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 3.2 s
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 46 Gegner:innen, 118 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 44:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 16:01 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:28
53 / 20 Solomon Okrafo-Smart
GBR
+32 s
+20 s
G2 / G1
 15:36
15:04
 44:29
Show details
Prediction details: Solomon Okrafo-Smart

Placement

Prediction: 53
80% range: 20–54
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 33

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:02
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 11.8 s
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 128 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 42 Gegner:innen, 110 Duelle, Korrektur -0.41 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:04 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 44:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:02 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:36 (3:07 / km)
Total: 44:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
54 / 14 Lukas Pertl
AUT
+36 s
+28 s
G2 / G1
 15:39
14:51
 44:32
Show details
Prediction details: Lukas Pertl

Placement

Prediction: 54
80% range: 39–57
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 40

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 7.8 s
H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 200 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 42.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 54 Gegner:innen, 188 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:51 (2:58 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 44:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:39 (3:08 / km)
Total: 44:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 6.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
55 / 63 Fernando Jacome
CHI
+39 s
+33 s
G2 / G4
 15:46
17:50
 44:39
Show details
Prediction details: Fernando Jacome

Placement

Prediction: 55
80% range: 10–61
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 63
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 5.6 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 65 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:55 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 61 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Error: −2:04 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 44:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 15:46 (3:09 / km)
Total: 44:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 9.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
56 / 64 András Szűcs
HUN
+27 s
+40 s
G1 / G4
 16:21
18:19
 44:48
Show details
Prediction details: András Szűcs

Placement

Prediction: 56
80% range: 50–59
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 64
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 8:57
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -13.2 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Error: −1:58 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 44:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:57 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 16:21 (3:16 / km)
Total: 44:48
57 / 48 Niels Van Lanen
NED
+37 s
+41 s
G2 / G2
correct 		16:08
16:02
 45:01
Show details
Prediction details: Niels Van Lanen

Placement

Prediction: 57
80% range: 22–61
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 48
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: -4.2 s
H2H: 47 Gegner:innen, 146 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 43 Gegner:innen, 130 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 45:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km)
Total: 45:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
58 / 61 Lehel Hóbor
HUN
+16 s
+29 s
G1 / G3
 16:41
17:11
 45:08
Show details
Prediction details: Lehel Hóbor

Placement

Prediction: 58
80% range: 49–59
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 61
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: -12.7 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 45:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 16:41 (3:20 / km)
Total: 45:08
59 / 42 Dario Wickihalter
SUI
+10 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:57
16:49
 45:24
Show details
Prediction details: Dario Wickihalter

Placement

Prediction: 59
80% range: 54–60
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 42
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 8:40
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: -1.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (34 people)
Speed: 41.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 45:24
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:40 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Total: 45:24
60 / 58 David Korous
CZE
+47 s
+42 s
G2 / G3
 16:54
16:09
 45:47
Show details
Prediction details: David Korous

Placement

Prediction: 60
80% range: 57–64
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 58
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 5.2 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (21 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 44.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 7.2 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:09 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 45:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:06 (44.2 km/h)
Run: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Total: 45:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 18.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
61 / 57 Rick Van der Knaap
NED
+57 s
+47 s
G3 / G3
correct 		15:40
16:02
 46:22
Show details
Prediction details: Rick Van der Knaap

Placement

Prediction: 61
80% range: 38–63
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 57
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 9.7 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:02 (3:12 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 46:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:43 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km)
Total: 46:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 27.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
62 / 36 Gregor Rasva
EST
+12 s
+17 s
G1 / G2
 18:10
15:06
 46:37
Show details
Prediction details: Gregor Rasva

Placement

Prediction: 62
80% range: 56–64
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: 26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -5.5 s
H2H: 51 Gegner:innen, 153 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (40 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 50 Gegner:innen, 123 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Error: +3:04 / +0:37 / km
Overall prediction: 46:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:42 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:58 (44.4 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Total: 46:37
63 / 53 Radim Grebík
CZE
+59 s
+42 s
G3 / G2
 17:16
17:09
 47:58
Show details
Prediction details: Radim Grebík

Placement

Prediction: 63
80% range: 60–65
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 53
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 9:29
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 17.3 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -1.10 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 6.6 s
Result: Group 2 (18 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:09 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 47:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:29 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:43 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: 47:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 30.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
64 / 65 Andres Eduardo Diaz Marin
COL
+54 s
+52 s
G3 / G4
 17:21
18:30
 48:03
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Eduardo Diaz Marin

Placement

Prediction: 64
80% range: 59–65
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 65
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 2.4 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.2 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 47 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 48:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:43 (41.8 km/h)
Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Total: 48:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 25.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
65 / 62 Joaquín Mojica Baquero
COL
+66 s
+56 s
G4 / G4
correct 		17:03
17:33
 48:52
Show details
Prediction details: Joaquín Mojica Baquero

Placement

Prediction: 65
80% range: 61–65
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 62
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 9.9 s
H2H: 39 Gegner:innen, 69 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 37 Gegner:innen, 62 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 48:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:43 (40.4 km/h)
Run: 17:03 (3:25 / km)
Total: 48:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 36.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +29.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.