Elite Men
Race information and calculation basis
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 13.06.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Add missing course distances
The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.
Show model parameters and data quality
Kalibriert mit 56 früheren Rennen und 1651 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 49.2 %.
Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 13.06.2026.
Datenabdeckung 81.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 56 Kalibrierungsrennen
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
| Place Prediction / result |
Athlete | Swimming Prediction / result |
Bike group Prediction / result |
Run Prediction / result |
Overall prediction | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 11 |
MAS
|
+30 s
+5 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
17:12
20:35
|
47:26 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -10
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 25.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
46 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.15 %,
Sicherheit 75 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
2.8 s
Gap behind:
7.0 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.18 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen,
45 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.46 %,
Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:35 (4:07 / km)
Error: −3:23 / −0:41 / km
Overall prediction: 47:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:16
(1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
29:37
(40.5 km/h)
Run:
17:12
(3:26 / km)
Total:
47:26
|
| 2 / 1 |
BRN
|
+50 s
+10 s
|
G2 / G1
|
16:33
17:25
|
48:01 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 2
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 39.9 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen,
18 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.25 %,
Sicherheit 45 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.3 s
Gap behind:
2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.88 km/h
Running and totalRun: 16:33 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen,
18 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.06 %,
Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:52 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 48:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:36
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
30:35
(39.2 km/h)
Run:
16:33
(3:19 / km)
Total:
48:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
| 3 / 2 |
KOR
|
+27 s
+5 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
17:47
17:55
|
48:01 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 3
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 22.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen,
7 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.42 %,
Sicherheit 22 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
7.4 s
Gap behind:
2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.10 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen,
7 Duelle,
Korrektur -2.16 %,
Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 48:01
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:13
(1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
29:37
(40.5 km/h)
Run:
17:47
(3:33 / km)
Total:
48:01
|
| 4 / 8 |
KOR
|
+20 s
+0 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
18:09
19:26
|
48:23 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 4
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 19.8 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
19 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.24 %,
Sicherheit 84 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 83 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
7.4 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.18 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:09 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
19 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.33 %,
Sicherheit 82 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:26 (3:53 / km)
Error: −1:17 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 48:23
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:06
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
29:37
(40.5 km/h)
Run:
18:09
(3:38 / km)
Total:
48:23
|
| 5 / 12 |
PLE
|
+52 s
+25 s
|
G2 / G1
|
17:13
20:59
|
48:41 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 5
80% range: 3–12
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -7
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 27.3 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
10 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.38 %,
Sicherheit 48 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
2.4 s
Gap behind:
1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
10 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.47 %,
Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:59 (4:12 / km)
Error: −3:46 / −0:45 / km
Overall prediction: 48:41
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:38
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
30:35
(39.2 km/h)
Run:
17:13
(3:27 / km)
Total:
48:41
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 19.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 6 / 3 |
KOR
|
+37 s
+6 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
18:32
17:55
|
48:46 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 6
80% range: 4–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 31.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen,
16 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.08 %,
Sicherheit 59 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
7.0 s
Gap behind:
8.5 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen,
16 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.26 %,
Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 48:46
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:23
(1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
29:37
(40.5 km/h)
Run:
18:32
(3:42 / km)
Total:
48:46
|
| 7 / 6 |
PHI
|
+47 s
+26 s
|
G2 / G1
|
17:36
18:50
|
49:04 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 7
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 20.9 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
45 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.02 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.4 s
Gap behind:
1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
45 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.68 %,
Sicherheit 86 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 (3:46 / km)
Error: −1:14 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 49:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:33
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
30:35
(39.2 km/h)
Run:
17:36
(3:31 / km)
Total:
49:04
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 14 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 8 / 7 |
MAS
|
+46 s
+13 s
|
G2 / G1
|
18:30
18:52
|
49:58 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 8
80% range: 8–11
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 32.5 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
38 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.02 %,
Sicherheit 85 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
8.5 s
Gap behind:
1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.82 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
38 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.15 %,
Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:58
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:32
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
30:35
(39.2 km/h)
Run:
18:30
(3:42 / km)
Total:
49:58
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 12.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 9 / 10 |
KOR
|
+53 s
+6 s
|
G2 / G1
|
18:46
19:57
|
50:14 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 9
80% range: 7–14
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 47.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen,
14 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.10 %,
Sicherheit 68 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.0 s
Gap behind:
4.9 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.90 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen,
14 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.54 %,
Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:57 (3:59 / km)
Error: −1:11 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 50:14
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:39
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
30:35
(39.2 km/h)
Run:
18:46
(3:45 / km)
Total:
50:14
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 20.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 10 / 4 |
MAS
|
+60 s
+30 s
|
G3 / G1
|
17:45
18:18
|
50:52 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 10
80% range: 7–12
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 6
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:46
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 29.7 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen,
49 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.13 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.5 s
Gap behind:
7.4 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.99 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen,
49 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.17 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:18 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:33 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 50:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:46
(1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:00
(37.6 km/h)
Run:
17:45
(3:33 / km)
Total:
50:52
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 26.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 11 / 5 |
MAS
|
+109 s
+56 s
|
G6 / G2
|
16:54
17:19
|
50:59 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 11
80% range: 10–13
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 6
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +109 s
Time: 11:35
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 53.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen,
21 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.17 %,
Sicherheit 41 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 6 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
3.3 s
Gap behind:
9.4 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.25 km/h
Running and totalRun: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen,
21 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.24 %,
Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:59
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:35
(1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:07
(37.4 km/h)
Run:
16:54
(3:23 / km)
Total:
50:59
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 76.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 12 / 13 |
PHI
|
+80 s
+44 s
|
G4 / G3
|
17:58
18:48
|
51:38 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 12
80% range: 11–14
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +80 s
Time: 11:06
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 35.7 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
23 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.81 %,
Sicherheit 80 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
12.6 s
Gap behind:
6.3 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:58 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
23 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.07 %,
Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:50 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 51:38
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:06
(1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:21
(37.1 km/h)
Run:
17:58
(3:36 / km)
Total:
51:38
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 46.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 13 / 20 |
PHI
|
+119 s
+100 s
|
G6 / G5
|
19:03
20:48
|
53:08 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 13
80% range: 15–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -7
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +119 s
Time: 11:45
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +100 s
Fehler: 18.8 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
9 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.99 %,
Sicherheit 49 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 6 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 12, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
9.4 s
Gap behind:
6.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.83 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
9 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.02 %,
Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:48 (4:10 / km)
Error: −1:45 / −0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 53:08
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
11:45
(1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:07
(37.4 km/h)
Run:
19:03
(3:49 / km)
Total:
53:08
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 85.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 14 / 9 |
KGZ
|
+67 s
+11 s
|
G3 / G1
|
20:03
19:51
|
53:10 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 14
80% range: 13–17
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 5
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 10:53
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 56.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen,
6 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.51 %,
Sicherheit 3 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
7.4 s
Gap behind:
12.6 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.70 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:03 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen,
6 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.27 %,
Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 53:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:53
(1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:00
(37.6 km/h)
Run:
20:03
(4:01 / km)
Total:
53:10
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 34.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 15 / 14 |
MAC
|
+103 s
+64 s
|
G6 / G3
|
19:18
19:16
|
53:23 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 15
80% range: 14–18
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +103 s
Time: 11:29
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: 38.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
35 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.33 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 6 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
16.5 s
Gap behind:
3.6 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.81 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
35 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.51 %,
Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 53:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:29
(1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:07
(37.4 km/h)
Run:
19:18
(3:52 / km)
Total:
53:23
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 69.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 16 / 17 |
MAC
|
+86 s
+62 s
|
G5 / G3
|
19:38
21:34
|
53:27 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 16
80% range: 14–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 11:12
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: 24.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
40 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.09 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
6.3 s
Gap behind:
16.5 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.51 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:38 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
40 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.28 %,
Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:34 (4:19 / km)
Error: −1:56 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 53:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:12
(1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:23
(37.1 km/h)
Run:
19:38
(3:56 / km)
Total:
53:27
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 53.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 17 / 15 |
KOR
|
+49 s
+31 s
|
G2 / G3
|
22:28
19:53
|
53:56 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 17
80% range: 16–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 17.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen,
5 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.01 %,
Sicherheit 35 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.7 s
Gap behind:
1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.08 km/h
Running and totalRun: 22:28 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen,
5 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.40 %,
Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Error: +2:35 / +0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 53:56
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming:
10:35
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
30:35
(39.2 km/h)
Run:
22:28
(4:30 / km)
Total:
53:56
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 15.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 18 / 19 |
PHI
|
+148 s
+111 s
|
G8 / G4
|
19:45
19:52
|
55:14 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 18
80% range: 18–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +148 s
Time: 12:14
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +111 s
Fehler: 37.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen,
9 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.83 %,
Sicherheit 43 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 8 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 14, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
22.5 s
Gap behind:
33.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.48 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen,
9 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.14 %,
Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:52 (3:58 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 55:14
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
12:14
(1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
33:01
(36.3 km/h)
Run:
19:45
(3:57 / km)
Total:
55:14
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 115.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 19 / 16 |
PHI
|
+106 s
+65 s
|
G6 / G3
|
22:36
20:47
|
56:41 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 19
80% range: 20–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +106 s
Time: 11:32
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: 41.1 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
9 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.82 %,
Sicherheit 49 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 6 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
3.6 s
Gap behind:
3.3 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.73 km/h
Running and totalRun: 22:36 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
9 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.55 %,
Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:47 (4:09 / km)
Error: +1:49 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 56:41
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
11:32
(1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:07
(37.4 km/h)
Run:
22:36
(4:31 / km)
Total:
56:41
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 73.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 20 / 18 |
MAC
|
+126 s
+60 s
|
G7 / G3
|
21:51
21:50
|
57:07 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 20
80% range: 20–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +126 s
Time: 11:52
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 65.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen,
22 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.00 %,
Sicherheit 72 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 13, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
6.8 s
Gap behind:
22.5 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h
Running and totalRun: 21:51 (4:22 / km)
Historical basis: 4:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen,
22 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.69 %,
Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:50 (4:22 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 57:07
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:52
(1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
33:10
(36.2 km/h)
Run:
21:51
(4:22 / km)
Total:
57:07
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 92.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 21 / 21 |
SGP
|
+58 s
+12 s
|
G3 / G3
correct
|
28:40
26:33
|
1:01:47 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 21
80% range: 22–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:44
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 46.2 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen,
6 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.44 %,
Sicherheit 13 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
4.9 s
Gap behind:
1.5 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.62 km/h
Running and totalRun: 28:40 (5:44 / km)
Historical basis: 5:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen,
6 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.33 %,
Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:33 (5:19 / km)
Error: +2:07 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:47
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming:
10:44
(1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:00
(37.6 km/h)
Run:
28:40
(5:44 / km)
Total:
1:01:47
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 25.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 0 / 22 |
MAS
|
+181 s
+145 s
|
G9 / G6
|
26:40
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +181 s
Time: 12:47
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +145 s
Fehler: 36.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
1 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.00 %,
Sicherheit 3 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 9 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 15, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
33.0 s
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 29.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.20 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:40 (5:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming:
12:47
(1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
37:42
(31.8 km/h)
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 148.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +32.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|