Prediction comparison

Elite Men

21.03.2026 Palau Pacific Resort PLW

Race information and calculation basis

2026 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Palau

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 73 früheren Rennen und 1464 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 43.2 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 22 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.8 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 36.4 % · 73 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.4

Mean swim error30.1 s

Mean bike-speed error2.37 km/h

Correct bike groups3/5

No history6

Within the 80% range45.5 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 1	Tyreece Collins SAM	+60 s +2 s	G2 / G1	20:38 21:29	56:34	Show details Prediction details: Tyreece Collins Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 13:28 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 58.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 6 % Speed: 34.4 km/h Gap ahead: 43.0 s Gap behind: 79.5 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 36.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.66 km/h Running and total Run: 20:38 (4:08 / km) Historical basis: 4:08 / km Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 21:29 (4:18 / km) Error: −0:51 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 56:34 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:28 (1:48 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:56 (34.4 km/h) Run: 20:38 (4:08 / km) Total: 56:34 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:49 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m About 39.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2	David Robati COK	+17 s +0 s	G1 / G2	21:44		Show details Prediction details: David Robati Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: 12:45 Pace: 1:42 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 17.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 40.6 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 43.0 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 33.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.27 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:44 (4:21 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 12:45 (1:42 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 29:34 (40.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3	Rynier Di Ramos GUM	+214 s +202 s	G3 / G3 correct	21:34		Show details Prediction details: Rynier Di Ramos Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +214 s Time: 16:02 Pace: 2:08 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +202 s Fehler: 12.3 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 74.8 s Gap behind: 14.4 s Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.04 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:34 (4:19 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 16:02 (2:08 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:35 (32.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:49 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m About 193.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Michael Denevan NMI	+0 s +262 s	G0 / G4	20:32		Show details Prediction details: Michael Denevan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:28 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +262 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 31.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:32 (4:06 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:28 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Lieslie Taksiau PLW	+229 s +208 s	G3 / G3 correct	23:48		Show details Prediction details: Lieslie Taksiau Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +229 s Time: 16:17 Pace: 2:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +208 s Fehler: 20.7 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 14.4 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:48 (4:46 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 16:17 (2:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:35 (32.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:49 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m About 207.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Jody O'Sullivan NMI	+0 s +336 s	G0 / G5	20:13		Show details Prediction details: Jody O'Sullivan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:28 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +336 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 31.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:13 (4:03 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:28 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Crisroch Euta Levale SAM	+140 s +97 s	G3 / G3 correct	27:10		Show details Prediction details: Crisroch Euta Levale Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +140 s Time: 14:48 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +97 s Fehler: 42.5 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 79.5 s Gap behind: 74.8 s Result: Group 3 (3 people) Speed: 31.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.79 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 27:10 (5:26 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 14:48 (1:58 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:35 (32.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:49 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m About 118.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8	Laurence Villaruel PLW	+0 s +434 s	G0 / G6	31:57		Show details Prediction details: Laurence Villaruel Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:28 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +434 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 28.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 31:57 (6:23 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:28 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Duab Malsol PLW	+0 s +431 s	G0 / G7	34:46		Show details Prediction details: Duab Malsol Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:28 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +431 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 27.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 34:46 (6:57 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:28 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Ngowakl Kumaichi PLW	+0 s +833 s	G0 / G8	35:37		Show details Prediction details: Ngowakl Kumaichi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:28 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +833 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 28.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 35:37 (7:07 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:28 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Faimau Haru Umi PLW	+0 s +469 s	G0 / G9	36:03		Show details Prediction details: Faimau Haru Umi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–11 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:28 Pace: 1:40 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +469 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 24.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 36:03 (7:13 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:28 (1:40 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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