Prediction comparison

Elite Women

21.03.2026 Palau Pacific Resort PLW

Race information and calculation basis

2026 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Palau

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 56/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 69 früheren Rennen und 564 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 31.6 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 14.03.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 6 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 18 s Gruppeneffekt 0.85 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 12.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 69 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.3

Mean swim error84.5 s

Mean bike-speed error2.07 km/h

Correct bike groups0/4

No history4

Within the 80% range12.5 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 6	Urlin Mulitalo SAM	+19 s +0 s	G1 / G2	28:41 32:42	1:10:38	Show details Prediction details: Urlin Mulitalo Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: 13:28 Pace: 1:48 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 19.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 28.8 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 73.2 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 31.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.96 km/h Running and total Run: 28:41 (5:44 / km) Historical basis: 5:40 / km Best comparable pace: 5:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 1.34 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 32:42 (6:32 / km) Error: −4:01 / −0:48 / km Overall prediction: 1:10:38 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:28 (1:48 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 41:38 (28.8 km/h) Run: 28:41 (5:44 / km) Total: 1:10:38
2 / 2	Manamea Schwalger SAM	+180 s +41 s	G2 / G3	27:29 25:45	1:13:47	Show details Prediction details: Manamea Schwalger Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +180 s Time: 16:09 Pace: 2:09 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: 138.6 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 14 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 27.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 87.4 s Gap behind: 292.4 s Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 30.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -3.31 km/h Running and total Run: 27:29 (5:30 / km) Historical basis: 5:34 / km Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -1.32 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 25:45 (5:09 / km) Error: +1:44 / +0:21 / km Overall prediction: 1:13:47 Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 16:09 (2:09 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 43:18 (27.0 km/h) Run: 27:29 (5:30 / km) Total: 1:13:47 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 13:34 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m About 154.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1	Lily Muldoon NMI	+0 s +31 s	G0 / G1	22:12		Show details Prediction details: Lily Muldoon Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:09 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 32.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:12 (4:26 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:09 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Olivia Postrzygacz COK	+0 s +44 s	G0 / G3	25:59		Show details Prediction details: Olivia Postrzygacz Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:09 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 30.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:59 (5:12 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:09 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Aria Gumataotao GUM	+0 s +142 s	G0 / G4	25:29		Show details Prediction details: Aria Gumataotao Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:09 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +142 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 30.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 25:29 (5:06 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:09 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Elengoi Gibbons PLW	+92 s +37 s	G2 / G5	26:27		Show details Prediction details: Elengoi Gibbons Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +92 s Time: 14:41 Pace: 1:57 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 55.2 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 27.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 73.2 s Gap behind: 87.4 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 27.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:27 (5:17 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 14:41 (1:57 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 43:18 (27.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 13:34 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m About 67.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7	Ebiklou Ngiraswei PLW	+472 s +347 s	G3 / G7	28:17		Show details Prediction details: Ebiklou Ngiraswei Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +472 s Time: 21:01 Pace: 2:48 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +347 s Fehler: 125.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 26.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 292.4 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 25.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 28:17 (5:39 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 21:01 (2:48 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 44:33 (26.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 13:34 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m About 447.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8	Alice Andrew PLW	+0 s +216 s	G0 / G6	32:27		Show details Prediction details: Alice Andrew Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:09 Pace: 1:45 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +216 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 25.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 32:27 (6:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:09 (1:45 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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