Elite Men
Race information and calculation basis
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 08.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Add missing course distances
The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.
Show model parameters and data quality
Kalibriert mit 74 früheren Rennen und 1686 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 44.2 %.
Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 07.03.2026.
Datenabdeckung 53.6 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 85.7 % · 74 Kalibrierungsrennen
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
| Place Prediction / result |
Athlete | Swimming Prediction / result |
Bike group Prediction / result |
Run Prediction / result |
Overall prediction | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 24 |
CUB
|
+28 s
+0 s
|
G2 / G7
|
16:55
16:44
|
47:30 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -23
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 27.7 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
34 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.87 %,
Sicherheit 79 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
3.7 s
Gap behind:
1.4 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.77 km/h
Running and totalRun: 16:55 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen,
32 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.46 %,
Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 47:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:02
(1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
30:06
(39.9 km/h)
Run:
16:55
(3:23 / km)
Total:
47:30
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 5.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 2 / 1 |
CRC
|
+29 s
+2 s
|
G2 / G1
|
17:47
16:03
|
48:22 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 2
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 27.1 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
32 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.32 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 48 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.4 s
Gap behind:
4.1 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.31 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
27 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.17 %,
Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:03 (3:13 / km)
Error: +1:44 / +0:21 / km
Overall prediction: 48:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:03
(1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
30:06
(39.9 km/h)
Run:
17:47
(3:33 / km)
Total:
48:22
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 7.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 3 / 2 |
GUA
|
+33 s
+15 s
|
G3 / G1
|
17:57
16:59
|
50:11 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 3
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 18.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
24 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.01 %,
Sicherheit 60 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
4.1 s
Gap behind:
1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.29 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
24 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.91 %,
Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 50:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:07
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:39
(37.9 km/h)
Run:
17:57
(3:35 / km)
Total:
50:11
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 11.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 4 / 7 |
PAN
|
+64 s
+29 s
|
G4 / G1
|
17:35
18:02
|
50:18 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 4
80% range: 7–12
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 34.5 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
50 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.70 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
3.4 s
Gap behind:
0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.26 km/h
Running and totalRun: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen,
46 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.14 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:18
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:38
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
17:35
(3:31 / km)
Total:
50:18
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 41.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 5 / 4 |
CUB
|
+39 s
+31 s
|
G4 / G1
|
18:15
17:29
|
50:58 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 5
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
52 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.43 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
4.9 s
Gap behind:
3.6 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.28 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 9
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen,
49 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.35 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:46 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 50:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:13
(1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
18:15
(3:39 / km)
Total:
50:58
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 17.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 6 / 23 |
PAN
|
+80 s
+83 s
|
G4 / G4
correct
|
18:24
19:07
|
51:07 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 6
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -17
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +80 s
Time: 10:54
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: -3.2 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen,
41 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.11 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
5.7 s
Gap behind:
23.7 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.21 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:24 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen,
41 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.25 %,
Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 51:07
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:54
(1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
18:24
(3:41 / km)
Total:
51:07
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 57.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 7 / 19 |
PAN
|
+53 s
+58 s
|
G4 / G3
|
18:38
18:49
|
51:21 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 7
80% range: 9–15
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -12
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -5.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
17 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.29 %,
Sicherheit 45 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
3.0 s
Gap behind:
1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.19 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
17 Duelle,
Korrektur 2.38 %,
Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:21
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:27
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
18:38
(3:44 / km)
Total:
51:21
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 31 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 8 / 3 |
COL
|
+74 s
+30 s
|
G4 / G1
|
18:45
17:13
|
51:28 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 8
80% range: 7–20
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 5
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 44.1 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
34 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.88 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
10.3 s
Gap behind:
5.7 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.24 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
30 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.95 %,
Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Error: +1:32 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 51:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:48
(1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
18:45
(3:45 / km)
Total:
51:28
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 52.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 9 / 9 |
COL
|
+54 s
+15 s
|
G4 / G1
|
18:57
18:23
|
51:40 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 9
80% range: 10–18
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +54 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 39.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen,
29 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.96 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.4 s
Gap behind:
3.4 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.60 km/h
Running and totalRun: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen,
24 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.43 %,
Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:40
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:28
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
18:57
(3:47 / km)
Total:
51:40
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 32.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 10 / 16 |
ISV
|
+50 s
+32 s
|
G4 / G2
|
19:10
18:34
|
51:53 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 10
80% range: 10–16
Top-10 probability: 21 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -6
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 17.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
8 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.82 %,
Sicherheit 25 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.8 s
Gap behind:
3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.24 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
8 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.22 %,
Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:36 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:53
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming:
10:24
(1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
19:10
(3:50 / km)
Total:
51:53
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 28 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 11 / 11 |
CRC
|
+58 s
+17 s
|
G4 / G3
|
19:10
17:04
|
51:53 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 11
80% range: 10–20
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 40.7 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
24 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.21 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
3.4 s
Gap behind:
2.4 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.23 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
21 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.35 %,
Sicherheit 71 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:04 (3:25 / km)
Error: +2:06 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 51:53
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming:
10:32
(1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
19:10
(3:50 / km)
Total:
51:53
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 35.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 12 / 12 |
DOM
|
+64 s
+56 s
|
G4 / G3
|
19:12
17:13
|
51:55 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 12
80% range: 12–20
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 7.8 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen,
36 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.62 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.3 s
Gap behind:
10.3 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.30 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:12 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
33 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.15 %,
Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Error: +1:59 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 51:55
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:38
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
19:12
(3:50 / km)
Total:
51:55
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 41.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 13 / 14 |
GUA
|
+34 s
+12 s
|
G3 / G1
|
19:49
19:02
|
52:03 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 13
80% range: 10–19
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 22.2 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen,
33 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.39 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
1.0 s
Gap behind:
4.9 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:49 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
29 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.22 %,
Sicherheit 72 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 52:03
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:08
(1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:39
(37.9 km/h)
Run:
19:49
(3:58 / km)
Total:
52:03
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 12.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 14 / 17 |
ECU
|
+49 s
+36 s
|
G4 / G3
|
19:28
17:54
|
52:11 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 14
80% range: 11–18
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 13.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen,
4 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.24 %,
Sicherheit 5 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
3.2 s
Gap behind:
0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.88 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen,
1 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.45 %,
Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:54 (3:35 / km)
Error: +1:34 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 52:11
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
10:23
(1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
19:28
(3:54 / km)
Total:
52:11
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 27.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 15 / 18 |
DOM
|
+60 s
+63 s
|
G4 / G3
|
19:39
18:16
|
52:22 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 15
80% range: 15–21
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: -2.9 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen,
34 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.21 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
2.4 s
Gap behind:
3.4 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.32 km/h
Running and totalRun: 19:39 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
32 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.90 %,
Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Error: +1:23 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 52:22
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:34
(1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
19:39
(3:56 / km)
Total:
52:22
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 38.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 16 / 6 |
GUA
|
+46 s
+14 s
|
G4 / G1
|
20:39
17:51
|
53:22 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 16
80% range: 15–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 10
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 31.9 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen,
40 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.34 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.1 s
Gap behind:
3.2 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h
Running and totalRun: 20:39 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
35 Duelle,
Korrektur -1.90 %,
Sicherheit 96 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Error: +2:48 / +0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 53:22
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:20
(1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
20:39
(4:08 / km)
Total:
53:22
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 24 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 17 / 5 |
ECU
|
+24 s
+16 s
|
G2 / G1
|
23:09
17:45
|
53:44 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 17
80% range: 20–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 12
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen,
3 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.01 %,
Sicherheit 12 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Gap ahead:
6.0 s
Gap behind:
3.7 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.24 km/h
Running and totalRun: 23:09 (4:38 / km)
Historical basis: 4:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: +5:24 / +1:05 / km
Overall prediction: 53:44
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming:
9:58
(1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
30:06
(39.9 km/h)
Run:
23:09
(4:38 / km)
Total:
53:44
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 2.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 18 / 20 |
TTO
|
+43 s
+57 s
|
G4 / G3
|
21:35
18:52
|
54:18 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 18
80% range: 17–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:17
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -14.3 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
3.6 s
Gap behind:
1.8 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.40 km/h
Running and totalRun: 21:35 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Error: +2:43 / +0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 54:18
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming:
10:17
(1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
21:35
(4:19 / km)
Total:
54:18
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 20.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 19 / 26 |
JAM
|
+45 s
+86 s
|
G4 / G6
|
24:21
21:13
|
57:04 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 19
80% range: 23–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -7
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +86 s
Fehler: -41.5 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
8 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.51 %,
Sicherheit 25 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
1.8 s
Gap behind:
0.3 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 32.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.09 km/h
Running and totalRun: 24:21 (4:52 / km)
Historical basis: 4:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen,
8 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.22 %,
Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:13 (4:15 / km)
Error: +3:08 / +0:38 / km
Overall prediction: 57:04
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
10:19
(1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
24:21
(4:52 / km)
Total:
57:04
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 22.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 20 / 22 |
DOM
|
+116 s
+118 s
|
G5 / G5
correct
|
22:56
14:38
|
57:24 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 20
80% range: 23–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +116 s
Time: 11:30
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +118 s
Fehler: -2.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
33 Duelle,
Korrektur 1.46 %,
Sicherheit 66 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
12.2 s
Gap behind:
10.8 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.17 km/h
Running and totalRun: 22:56 (4:35 / km)
Historical basis: 4:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen,
30 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.27 %,
Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:38 (2:56 / km)
Error: +8:18 / +1:40 / km
Overall prediction: 57:24
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:30
(1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:32
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
22:56
(4:35 / km)
Total:
57:24
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 93.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 21 / 27 |
PUR
|
+148 s
+131 s
|
G7 / G7
correct
|
21:46
21:49
|
1:01:41 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 21
80% range: 24–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -6
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +148 s
Time: 12:02
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +131 s
Fehler: 17.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen,
23 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.80 %,
Sicherheit 53 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 7 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
21.5 s
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.14 km/h
Running and totalRun: 21:46 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:24 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen,
21 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.77 %,
Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:49 (4:22 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:41
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
12:02
(1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
37:27
(32.0 km/h)
Run:
21:46
(4:21 / km)
Total:
1:01:41
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 126.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
| 0 / 8 |
ARU
|
+18 s
+1 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
18:13
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 17.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen,
2 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.21 %,
Sicherheit 2 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
6.0 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.26 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
9:52
(1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
29:34
(40.6 km/h)
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
|
|
| 0 / 10 |
PUR
|
+45 s
+6 s
|
G4 / G1
|
18:42
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 38.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen,
29 Duelle,
Korrektur 0.39 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 4 (15 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
0.3 s
Gap behind:
1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.74 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
10:19
(1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
31:24
(38.3 km/h)
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 22.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
|
| 0 / 13 |
BER
|
+0 s
+49 s
|
G0 / G2
|
18:11
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 26–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
9:34
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 15 |
PUR
|
+104 s
+59 s
|
G5 / G3
|
17:45
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +104 s
Time: 11:18
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 44.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen,
22 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.15 %,
Sicherheit 100 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
23.7 s
Gap behind:
12.2 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.01 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:18
(1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
32:32
(36.9 km/h)
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 81.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
|
| 0 / 21 |
CRC
|
+127 s
+34 s
|
G6 / G3
|
19:22
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +127 s
Time: 11:41
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 92.5 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen,
2 Duelle,
Korrektur -0.11 %,
Sicherheit 7 %
CyclingPrediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead:
10.8 s
Gap behind:
21.5 s
Result: Group 3 (8 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.88 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:22 (3:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming:
11:41
(1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
34:41
(34.6 km/h)
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
About 104.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
|
|
| 0 / 25 |
BER
|
+0 s
+105 s
|
G0 / G5
|
20:23
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 27–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +105 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
9:34
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 28 |
PUR
|
+0 s
+135 s
|
G0 / G7
|
22:50
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 28–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +135 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:50 (4:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
9:34
(1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|