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Elite Women

08.03.2026 Playa Punta Salinas PUR
Race information and calculation basis
2026 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Salinas

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 08.03.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 49/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 57.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 71.4 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.2
Mean swim error25.4 s
Mean bike-speed error1.39 km/h
Correct bike groups5/11
No history3
Within the 80% range14.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Zoe Adam
PUR
+4 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:20
18:22
 52:29
Show details
Prediction details: Zoe Adam

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +4 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 4.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 1.42 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 20.2 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 52:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:05 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Total: 52:29
2 / 4 Bivian Andrea Luisita Diaz Fuentes
GUA
+65 s
+35 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:48
19:42
 56:38
Show details
Prediction details: Bivian Andrea Luisita Diaz Fuentes

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 11:12
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 29.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: 25.0 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 1.31 %, Sicherheit 50 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:42 (3:56 / km)
Error: −0:54 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 56:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:12 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:45 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Total: 56:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 57 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 2 Isabella Fernandez
PUR
+60 s
+65 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:19
19:09
 58:09
Show details
Prediction details: Isabella Fernandez

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 11:07
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -4.8 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:19 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:45 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Error: +1:10 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 58:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:07 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:45 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 20:19 (4:04 / km)
Total: 58:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 52.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5 Victoria Arce Nuñez
CRC
+59 s
+68 s
G2 / G2
correct 		21:36
20:59
 59:26
Show details
Prediction details: Victoria Arce Nuñez

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 11:06
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -8.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 18.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:36 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:59 (4:12 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 59:26
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:06 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:45 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 21:36 (4:19 / km)
Total: 59:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 51.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 10 Ilse Dayana Cabinal Gramajo
GUA
+24 s
+65 s
G2 / G4
 22:48
22:59
 1:00:38
Show details
Prediction details: Ilse Dayana Cabinal Gramajo

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -40.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.02 %, Sicherheit 42 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.2 s
Gap behind: 16.5 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 31.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:48 (4:34 / km)
Historical basis: 4:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:59 (4:36 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:00:38
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:45 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 22:48 (4:34 / km)
Total: 1:00:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 16.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 3 Valentina Sofia Negron
PUR
+90 s
+63 s
G3 / G2
 20:08
19:29
 1:01:10
Show details
Prediction details: Valentina Sofia Negron

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +90 s
Time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: 26.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 68 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 30.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 25.0 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:08 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.23 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:37 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:32 (30.4 km/h)
Run: 20:08 (4:02 / km)
Total: 1:01:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 82 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 7 Mayda Del Milagro Hernandez
GUA
+131 s
+146 s
G4 / G5
 19:58
19:56
 1:01:30
Show details
Prediction details: Mayda Del Milagro Hernandez

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +131 s
Time: 12:18
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +146 s
Fehler: -14.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 40.9 s
Gap behind: 6.6 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 31.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:56 (3:59 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:30
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 12:18 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:14 (30.5 km/h)
Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Total: 1:01:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 123.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 12 Ashleigh Thomas
TTO
+41 s
+85 s
G2 / G5
 27:24
23:35
 1:05:14
Show details
Prediction details: Ashleigh Thomas

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: -44.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 18.3 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 30.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 27:24 (5:29 / km)
Historical basis: 5:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:35 (4:43 / km)
Error: +3:49 / +0:46 / km
Overall prediction: 1:05:14
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:45 (32.6 km/h)
Run: 27:24 (5:29 / km)
Total: 1:05:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 33 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 María Paula Navarro Chaverri
CRC
+0 s
+66 s
G0 / G3
20:58
Show details
Prediction details: María Paula Navarro Chaverri

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 33.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:58 (4:12 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Paula sofia Rivera
PUR
+41 s
+68 s
G2 / G4
21:30
Show details
Prediction details: Paula sofia Rivera

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: -27.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.5 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:30 (4:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:45 (32.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Raquel Sucre Pascal
PAN
+138 s
+70 s
G4 / G4
correct
22:35
Show details
Prediction details: Raquel Sucre Pascal

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +138 s
Time: 12:25
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: 68.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -1.37 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.6 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:35 (4:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 12:25 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:14 (30.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 130.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11 Lucía Ruth Domingo Yarrow
GUA
+0 s
+45 s
G0 / G4
23:36
Show details
Prediction details: Lucía Ruth Domingo Yarrow

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (4 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:36 (4:43 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Alessa Cristina Ayala Maestre
PAN
+91 s
+80 s
G3 / G5
24:15
Show details
Prediction details: Alessa Cristina Ayala Maestre

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 11:38
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +80 s
Fehler: 10.5 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 40.9 s
Result: Group 5 (3 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:15 (4:51 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:38 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:32 (30.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 82.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14 Mia Isabella Kelly
PUR
+0 s
+128 s
G0 / G6
24:44
Show details
Prediction details: Mia Isabella Kelly

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +128 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 22.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:44 (4:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.