Race prediction

Elite Women

26.07.2026 SRB

Race information and calculation basis

2026 World Triathlon Development Regional Cup Vlasina Lake

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.07.2026 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 calibrated

Prediction quality 75/100 mittel

Show model parameters and data quality

Kalibriert mit 22 früheren Rennen und 122 Athlet:innen. Paarweise Gruppengüte: 5.9 %.

Trainingsdaten ausschließlich vor 18.07.2026.

Einzelabstand ≤ 3 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 10 s Gruppeneffekt 0.45 Max. Vorteil 1.6 km/h

Datenabdeckung 77.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 22 Kalibrierungsrennen

Rank	Athlete	Swimming	Bike group	Run	Total	Details
1	Lana Gavrilović SRB	+3 s	Gruppe 1 1 Personen	14:23 2:53 / km	48:09	Show details Prediction details: Lana Gavrilović Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Swimming Prognoseabstand: +3 s Time: 10:19 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 61 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 94 % Speed: 35.6 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 12.8 s Running and total Run: 14:23 (2:53 / km) Historical basis: 2:52 / km Best comparable pace: 2:52 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 45 % Overall prediction: 48:09 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:43 (35.6 km/h) Run: 14:23 (2:53 / km) Total: 48:09
2	Maša Marković SRB	+16 s	Gruppe 2 1 Personen	14:11 2:50 / km	48:19	Show details Prediction details: Maša Marković Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 2–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 10:32 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 53 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 45 % Speed: 35.4 km/h Gap ahead: 12.8 s Gap behind: 6.3 s Running and total Run: 14:11 (2:50 / km) Historical basis: 2:46 / km Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 52 % Overall prediction: 48:19 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 33:52 (35.4 km/h) Run: 14:11 (2:50 / km) Total: 48:19 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 9.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3	Iva Pavlovic SRB	+43 s	Gruppe 3 7 Personen	14:00 2:48 / km	49:52	Show details Prediction details: Iva Pavlovic Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: 10:59 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.50 %, Sicherheit 61 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 9 % Speed: 34.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 20.9 s Gap behind: 6.2 s Running and total Run: 14:00 (2:48 / km) Historical basis: 2:47 / km Best comparable pace: 2:47 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 51 % Overall prediction: 49:52 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:59 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:26 (34.6 km/h) Run: 14:00 (2:48 / km) Total: 49:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 37.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4	Sofya Kryvetskaya BLR	+52 s	Gruppe 3 7 Personen	18:41 3:44 / km	54:33	Show details Prediction details: Sofya Kryvetskaya Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: 11:08 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 28 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 34.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.3 s Gap behind: 8.8 s Running and total Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Historical basis: 3:43 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 21 % Overall prediction: 54:33 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:08 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:26 (34.6 km/h) Run: 18:41 (3:44 / km) Total: 54:33 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 46.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.4 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5	Mira Ivanova Georgieva BUL	+22 s	Gruppe 3 7 Personen	20:01 4:00 / km	55:53	Show details Prediction details: Mira Ivanova Georgieva Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Swimming Prognoseabstand: +22 s Time: 10:38 Pace: 1:25 / 100 m H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 80 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 20 % Speed: 34.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.3 s Gap behind: 20.9 s Running and total Run: 20:01 (4:00 / km) Historical basis: 4:02 / km Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 54 % Overall prediction: 55:53 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:26 (34.6 km/h) Run: 20:01 (4:00 / km) Total: 55:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 16.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6	Raluca Vilcu ROU	+60 s	Gruppe 3 7 Personen	21:48 4:22 / km	57:40	Show details Prediction details: Raluca Vilcu Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 7–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Swimming Prognoseabstand: +60 s Time: 11:16 Pace: 1:30 / 100 m H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur -0.82 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 34.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 8.8 s Gap behind: 5.9 s Running and total Run: 21:48 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:15 / km Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 2.40 %, Sicherheit 37 % Overall prediction: 57:40 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:16 (1:30 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:26 (34.6 km/h) Run: 21:48 (4:22 / km) Total: 57:40 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 54.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7	Petra Vasilić SRB	+66 s	Gruppe 3 7 Personen	22:11 4:26 / km	58:03	Show details Prediction details: Petra Vasilić Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 7–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Swimming Prognoseabstand: +66 s Time: 11:22 Pace: 1:31 / 100 m H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 4 % Speed: 34.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.9 s Gap behind: 19.9 s Running and total Run: 22:11 (4:26 / km) Historical basis: 4:33 / km Best comparable pace: 4:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 18 % Overall prediction: 58:03 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:22 (1:31 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:26 (34.6 km/h) Run: 22:11 (4:26 / km) Total: 58:03 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 60.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8	Alice Perjoiu ROU	+49 s	Gruppe 3 7 Personen	36:32 7:18 / km	1:12:24	Show details Prediction details: Alice Perjoiu Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Swimming Prognoseabstand: +49 s Time: 11:05 Pace: 1:29 / 100 m H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 69 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 34.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.2 s Gap behind: 2.3 s Running and total Run: 36:32 (7:18 / km) Historical basis: 7:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 6 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 52 % Overall prediction: 1:12:24 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:05 (1:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:26 (34.6 km/h) Run: 36:32 (7:18 / km) Total: 1:12:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 43.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0	Nika Rimaj CRO	+86 s	Gruppe 3 7 Personen			Show details Prediction details: Nika Rimaj Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Swimming Prognoseabstand: +86 s Time: 11:42 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 70 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (7 people) Gruppe 1: 1 % Speed: 34.6 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 19.9 s Gap behind: – Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 11:42 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 34:26 (34.6 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 10:22 Pace: 1:23 / 100 m About 80.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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